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- All HBS Web
(469)
- News (84)
- Research (338)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (151)
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- April 21, 2023
- Article
When Scenario Planning Fails
By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Eemil Rupponen
How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can... View Details
Keywords: Planning; Crisis Management; Organizational Structure; Forecasting and Prediction; System Shocks; Organizational Change and Adaptation
Heikkinen, Kalle, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila, and Eemil Rupponen. "When Scenario Planning Fails." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 21, 2023).
- November 2005 (Revised July 2006)
- Background Note
A Note on Scenario Planning
By: David A. Garvin and Lynne Levesque
Describes the process, components, and detailed action steps involved in using scenario planning in any organization. Provides detailed examples that use the process. View Details
Keywords: Planning
Garvin, David A., and Lynne Levesque. "A Note on Scenario Planning." Harvard Business School Background Note 306-003, November 2005. (Revised July 2006.)
- 21 Apr 2023
- News
When Scenario Planning Fails
- January 2021
- Article
Institutional-Political Scenarios for Anthropocene Society
By: Andrew J. Hoffman and P. Devereaux Jennings
Natural scientists have proposed that humankind has entered a new geologic epoch. Termed the “Anthropocene,” this new reality revolves around the central role of human activity in multiple Earth ecosystems. That challenge requires a rethinking of social science... View Details
Keywords: Institutional Change; Institutional Theory; Natural Environment; Society; Environmental Sustainability
Hoffman, Andrew J., and P. Devereaux Jennings. "Institutional-Political Scenarios for Anthropocene Society." Business & Society 60, no. 1 (January 2021): 57–94.
- September 1983 (Revised May 1986)
- Background Note
Marketing 1995: A Scenario
Buzzell, Robert D. "Marketing 1995: A Scenario." Harvard Business School Background Note 584-031, September 1983. (Revised May 1986.)
- April 2006
- Supplement
Microsoft.NET User Scenario Video Clips
MacCormack, Alan D. "Microsoft.NET User Scenario Video Clips." Harvard Business School Video Supplement 606-705, April 2006.
- July 1990 (Revised August 1994)
- Supplement
U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices for the 1990s, Supplement
Provides relevant back-up data for the required scenario writing exercise. View Details
Salter, Malcolm S. "U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices for the 1990s, Supplement." Harvard Business School Supplement 391-002, July 1990. (Revised August 1994.)
- July 1990 (Revised August 1994)
- Case
U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices for the 1990s
Asks students to prepare a capacity utilization scenario for the U.S. auto industry in 1992 and to propose proper courses of action for Ford and General Motors in the face of globalizing competition. The subject is "corporate strategy in an overcapacitized world."... View Details
Keywords: Globalization; Business or Company Management; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Auto Industry; United States
Salter, Malcolm S. "U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices for the 1990s." Harvard Business School Case 391-001, July 1990. (Revised August 1994.)
- April 1989 (Revised June 1989)
- Case
U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices
Salter, Malcolm S. "U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices." Harvard Business School Case 389-152, April 1989. (Revised June 1989.)
- September 1981
- Article
Portfolio Analysis with Factors and Scenarios
By: André Perold and Harry M. Markowitz
Perold, André, and Harry M. Markowitz. "Portfolio Analysis with Factors and Scenarios." Journal of Finance 36, no. 4 (September 1981): 871–877.
- April 1989 (Revised June 1989)
- Supplement
U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices, Supplement
Salter, Malcolm S. "U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices, Supplement." Harvard Business School Supplement 389-153, April 1989. (Revised June 1989.)
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States
Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.
- July 1989 (Revised August 1989)
- Teaching Note
U.S. Auto Industry: Scenarios and Choices, Teaching Note
- 1992
- Book
South Africa: Prospects for Successful Transition, Nedcor-Old Mutual Scenarios
By: R. Tucker and B. R. Scott
Tucker, R. and B. R. Scott, eds. South Africa: Prospects for Successful Transition, Nedcor-Old Mutual Scenarios. Kenwyn, South Africa: Juta Academic, 1992.
- 1997
- Book
EUROPE 2012 Globalisation et Cohesion Sociale: Les Scenarios Luxembourgeois
By: Albert Bressand, B. R. Scott, Manuel Baldauff, Leon Halbach, Gerard Hoffmann and Thierry Wolter
Keywords: Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues
Bressand, Albert, B. R. Scott, Manuel Baldauff, Leon Halbach, Gerard Hoffmann, and Thierry Wolter. EUROPE 2012 Globalisation et Cohesion Sociale: Les Scenarios Luxembourgeois. Luxembourg: Fondation Alphonse Weicker, 1997.
- April 2020 (Revised January 2021)
- Module Note
Crafting Strategy
This note provides an introduction to crafting strategy following an options-led approach. It provides an overview of scenario planning, and it prepares students to describe firm strategy with succinct strategy statements. The note also briefly outlines other... View Details
Keywords: Strategy Formulation; Options; Scenario Planning; Scenarios; Strategy Definition; Strategy; Strategic Planning
Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Ashish Nanda, and Jan Rivkin. "Crafting Strategy." Harvard Business School Module Note 720-407, April 2020. (Revised January 2021.)
- Article
Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates
By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.