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- October 2024
- Article
Sampling Bias in Entrepreneurial Experiments
By: Ruiqing Cao, Rembrand Koning and Ramana Nanda
Using data from a prominent online platform for launching new digital products, we document that ‘sampling bias’—defined as the difference between a startup’s target customer base and the actual sample on which early ‘beta tests’ are conducted—has a systematic and... View Details
Cao, Ruiqing, Rembrand Koning, and Ramana Nanda. "Sampling Bias in Entrepreneurial Experiments." Management Science 70, no. 10 (October 2024): 7283–7307.
- 15 Dec 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Biased Sampling of Early Users and the Direction of Startup Innovation
- 2017
- Working Paper
Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments
By: Daniel J. Benjamin, Don A. Moore and Matthew Rabin
This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be... View Details
Benjamin, Daniel J., Don A. Moore, and Matthew Rabin. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23927, October 2017.
- 2023
- Article
Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models
By: Pavan Ravishankar, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias across stages. Here we consider... View Details
Ravishankar, Pavan, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 37, no. 8 (2023): 9562–9569. (Presented at the 37th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2/7/23-2/14/23) in Washington, DC.)
- 01 Sep 2021
- Op-Ed
How Women Can Learn from Even Biased Feedback
why, 74 percent said they found such conversations to be either uncomfortable or unhelpful. Men and women alike in the sample reported feeling not very optimistic that the feedback they’d receive would help them actually improve in their... View Details
Keywords: by Francesca Gino
- Article
Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty
By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev
Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with... View Details
Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence
Daniels, David P., and Julian Zlatev. "Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 151 (March 2019): 132–149.
- March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
- Exercise
The Future of BioPasteur
By: Giovanni Gavetti and Francesca Gino
The purpose of this exercise is to let students experience a few biases that can be deleterious to strategic decision-making. In particular, students are induced to fall into a confirmatory trap, and to experience other biases such as anchoring and sampling bias.... View Details
Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Decision Choices and Conditions; Outcome or Result; Groups and Teams; Prejudice and Bias; Strategy
Gavetti, Giovanni, and Francesca Gino. "The Future of BioPasteur." Harvard Business School Exercise 711-508, March 2011. (Revised April 2011.)
- March 2011
- Supplement
BioPasteur: Instructions for the group discussion
By: Giovanni Gavetti and Francesca Gino
The purpose of this exercise is to let students experience a few biases that can be deleterious to strategic decision-making. In particular, students are induced to fall into a confirmatory trap, and to experience other biases such as anchoring and sampling bias.... View Details
Gavetti, Giovanni, and Francesca Gino. "BioPasteur: Instructions for the group discussion." Harvard Business School Supplement 711-510, March 2011.
- March 2011
- Supplement
The Future of BioPasteur -- Supplement
By: Giovanni Gavetti and Francesca Gino
The purpose of this exercise is to let students experience a few biases that can be deleterious to strategic decision-making. In particular, students are induced to fall into a confirmatory trap, and to experience other biases such as anchoring and sampling bias.... View Details
Gavetti, Giovanni, and Francesca Gino. "The Future of BioPasteur -- Supplement." Harvard Business School Supplement 711-509, March 2011.
- 2023
- Working Paper
How People Use Statistics
By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
- 23 Jun 2021
- Research & Ideas
One More Way the Startup World Hampers Women Entrepreneurs
Before launching new products, entrepreneurs are often filled with doubt: Will their ideas successfully take off in the marketplace—or will they fall flat? To cut down on uncertainty, creators can post their inventions on platforms such as Product Hunt, where early... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding
Do Experts or Collective Intelligence Write with More Bias?
Co-authored by Feng Zhu
Which source of information contains greater bias and slant-text written by an expert or that constructed via collective intelligence? Do the costs of acquiring, storing, displaying, and revising information shape those... View Details
Which source of information contains greater bias and slant-text written by an expert or that constructed via collective intelligence? Do the costs of acquiring, storing, displaying, and revising information shape those... View Details
- July 2024
- Article
Acceptance of Automated Vehicles Is Lower for Self than Others
By: Stuti Agarwal, Julian De Freitas, Anya Ragnhildstveit and Carey K. Morewedge
Road traffic accidents are the leading cause of death worldwide for people aged 2–59. Nearly all deaths are due to human error. Automated vehicles could reduce mortality risks, traffic congestion, and air pollution of human-driven vehicles. However, their adoption... View Details
Agarwal, Stuti, Julian De Freitas, Anya Ragnhildstveit, and Carey K. Morewedge. "Acceptance of Automated Vehicles Is Lower for Self than Others." Journal of the Association for Consumer Research 9, no. 3 (July 2024): 269–281.
- Article
Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence
By: Julian Zlatev, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim and Margaret A. Neale
Current theories suggest that people understand how to exploit common biases to influence others. However, these predictions have received little empirical attention. We consider a widely studied bias with special policy relevance: the default effect, which is the... View Details
Zlatev, Julian, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim, and Margaret A. Neale. "Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 52 (December 26, 2017).
- 19 Jun 2007
- First Look
First Look: June 19, 2007
Intrapersonal Conflict Authors:Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman Abstract We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between how people anticipate preferences and their subsequent preferences. We examine the film rental and... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 16 Nov 2010
- First Look
First Look: November 16, 2010
"truth in giving" policies are highly responsive to recipient heterogeneity and biased against more generous giving. Traveling Agents: Political Change and Bureaucratic Turnover in India Authors:Lakshmi Iyer and Anandi Mani... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 12 Jun 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, June 12, 2018
capital-market or product-market benefits from inclusion. Status incentives contributed to the observed performance improvement. Back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that JPX400 inclusion incentives accounted for 16% (20%) of the growth in aggregate earnings (market... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- 31 Oct 2023
- Research & Ideas
Beyond the 'Business Case' in DEI: 6 Steps Toward Meaningful Change
were less likely to appoint a Black teammate to a leadership position, compared with those who weren’t exposed to this research. Those hearing the business case were also less likely to agree that racially diverse teams perform better. In another study, Williams found... View Details
- Research Summary
The Value of Family Ownership, Control, and Management
In collaboration with Professor Raphael Amit of Wharton, Belén Villalonga is investigating how family ownership, control, and management affect firm value. Their forthcoming Journal of Financial... View Details
- 03 Jan 2017
- First Look
January 3, 2017
research and technological innovation, this approach is misguided and potentially risky. This article argues that researchers need to pay close attention to issues such as biases in data collection and spurious correlation. Publisher's... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel