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- All HBS Web
(6,008)
- People (11)
- News (905)
- Research (4,150)
- Events (26)
- Multimedia (55)
- Faculty Publications (2,856)
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- 08 Apr 2011
- Conference Presentation
Assessing Risk and Uncertainty
By: Anette Mikes
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty
- December 2002
- Article
The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty
By: K. A. Froot and S. Posner
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Asset Pricing; Hedging; Banking; Insurance; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Insurance Industry
Froot, K. A., and S. Posner. "The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty." Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Theory 27, no. 2 (December 2002): 153–165. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 8106, February 2001.)
- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
- 2017
- Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details
Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,... View Details
Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- December 1993
- Article
Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies
By: K. A. Froot, David S. Scharfstein and J. Stein
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Banking And Insurance; Hedging; Banking; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Insurance; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Cost of Capital; Asset Pricing; Insurance Industry
Froot, K. A., David S. Scharfstein, and J. Stein. "Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies." Journal of Finance 48, no. 5 (December 1993): 1629–1658. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 4084, February 1993. Reprinted in RAE-Revista de Administração de Empresas, Management Journal of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV-EAESP), Business School for Administration in Sao Paulo, Brazil, volume no. 48, issue no. 1 (January-March 2008): 87-118. Reprinted in Insurance and Risk Management, Volume II, Corporate Risk Management, Part I: Theory on Why and How Firms Manage Risk, Chapter 3, edited by Gregory R. Niehaus, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (October 2008). Also in M.J. Brennan, The Theory of Corporate Finance from The International Library of Critical Writings in Financial Economics, edited by R. Roll, 1995; and in Merton Miller and Chris Culp, eds. Corporate Hedging in Theory and Practice: Lessons from Metallgesellschaft, Risk Books, 1999.)
- Research Summary
Self-environment relationship and its effect on decisions under risk and uncertainty
My research seek to better understand the main cognitive and social abilities that guide our judgments, and the ways they interact with aspects of the situation to shape humans' decisions. It is currently comprised of three related... View Details
- Article
Reciprocity and Uncertainty
By: Yoella Bereby-Meyer
Guala points to a discrepancy between strong negative reciprocity observed in the lab and the way cooperation is sustained "in the wild." This commentary suggests that in lab experiments, strong negative reciprocity is limited when uncertainty exists regarding the... View Details
Bereby-Meyer, Yoella. "Reciprocity and Uncertainty." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 35, no. 1 (February 2012): 18–19.
- 24 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
- November–December 1994
- Article
A Framework for Risk Management
By: K. Froot, David S. Scharfstein and J. Stein
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Hedging; Banking; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Framework; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Insurance; Policy; Natural Disasters; Insurance Industry
Froot, K., David S. Scharfstein, and J. Stein. "A Framework for Risk Management." Harvard Business Review 72, no. 6 (November–December 1994): 59–71. (Revised from "Developing a Risk Management Strategy," Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 95-021. Reprinted in Bank of America Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 7, no. 3 (fall 1994): 22-33; Marsh & McLennan Companies' Viewpoint 24 (spring 1995): 21-37; and in Corporate Risk: Strategies and Management, edited by Greg Brown and Don Chew, London: Risk Books, December 1999.)
- July 1995
- Article
A Contextual Uncertainty Condition for Behavior under Risk
By: David E. Bell
Bell, David E. "A Contextual Uncertainty Condition for Behavior under Risk." Management Science 41, no. 7 (July 1995): 1145–1150.
- 1999
- Book
The Financing of Catastrophe Risk
By: Kenneth A. Froot
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Banking And Insurance; Hedging; Banking; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Insurance; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Cost of Capital; Asset Pricing; Insurance Industry
Froot, Kenneth A., ed. The Financing of Catastrophe Risk. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.
- 2001
- Working Paper
Bank Capital and Risk Management: Issues for Banks and Regulators
By: Kenneth A. Froot
Banks and financial firms are in the process of evolving away from primary warehousers of risk to diversified originators and distributors of financial services. These changes are important for the way that financial firms think about their needs for economic... View Details
Keywords: Bank Capital And Risk Management; Issues For Banks And Regulators; Risk Management; Governance Compliance; Capital; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry
Froot, Kenneth A. "Bank Capital and Risk Management: Issues for Banks and Regulators." IFCI Geneva Research Paper, No. 8, April 2001. (International Financial Risk Institute.)
- July 2022
- Article
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu
Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level... View Details
Keywords: Employment Risk; Consumption; Employment; Risk and Uncertainty; System Shocks; Insurance; Household; Spending
Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao, and Edison Yu. "The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households." Journal of Financial Economics 145, no. 1 (July 2022): 85–104. (2023 Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing, 2nd place.)
- 1995
- Chapter
Incentive Problems in Financial Contracting: Impacts on Corporate Financing, Investment, and Risk Management Policies
By: K. Froot
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Asset Pricing; Hedging; Banking; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Insurance; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Insurance Industry
Froot, K. "Incentive Problems in Financial Contracting: Impacts on Corporate Financing, Investment, and Risk Management Policies." Chap. 7 in The Global Financial System: A Functional Perspective, by D. B. Crane, K. A. Froot, Scott P. Mason, André Perold, R. C. Merton, Z. Bodie, E. R. Sirri, and P. Tufano, 225–261. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1995. (Revised from Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 95-020.)
- March 2024 (Revised March 2025)
- Background Note
Physical Climate Risk
By: Michael W. Toffel, Spencer Glendon and Alison Smart
This note describes how managers can identify and manage their company’s physical climate risks, which can increase their operations and supply chain costs and risks, and affect demand for their goods and services. Can be paired with the video “Preparing business... View Details
- Research Summary
Strategic Uncertainty and Communication in Bargaining
A second field of research deals with the effects of strategic uncertainty and communication on bargaining behavior. Stylized bargaining situations are the simplest prototypes of strategic interaction. However, their experimental study provides us with insights which... View Details
- July 1986
- Article
Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment
By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and R. S. Ruback
Baldwin, Carliss Y., and R. S. Ruback. "Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment." Journal of Finance 41, no. 3 (July 1986): 657–668.
- Research Summary
Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain
Joint work with Hans-Joachim Voth, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona.
Trade unions often seem to behave in a more militant fashion when inflation rises. We provide the first theory as to why this should be so. We argue that uncertainty about the rate of inflation... View Details
- fall 1999
- Article
The Evolving Market for Catastrophe Event Risk
By: K. A. Froot
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Asset Pricing; Hedging; Banking; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Insurance; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Insurance Industry
Froot, K. A. "The Evolving Market for Catastrophe Event Risk." Risk Management and Insurance Review 2, no. 3 (fall 1999): 1–28. (Reprinted in Risk Management: The State of the Art, edited by S. Figlewski and R. Levich, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.)