Publications

08 Apr 2011
Conference Presentation

Assessing Risk and Uncertainty

By: Anette Mikes

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty

June 2017 (Revised January 2019)
Case

Signet Jewelers: Assessing Customer Financing Risk

By: Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, Suraj Srinivasan and Monica Baraldi

Marc Cohodes, a renowned short seller, has identified weaknesses in Signet's business strategy, which he argues is heavily reliant on providing loans to customers with subprime credit scores. He believes that the company accounts for its receivables portfolio using... View Details

Keywords: Short Selling; Bad Debt Expense; Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Finance; Financing and Loans; Valuation; Retail Industry; Financial Services Industry; United States

February 2018 (Revised March 2020)
Teaching Note

Signet Jewelers: Assessing Customer Financing Risk

By: Gerardo Pérez Cavazos, Suraj Srinivasan and Quinn Pitcher

Teaching Note for HBS No. 117-038. View Details

November 2016 (Revised December 2016)
Module Note

Strategy Execution Module 13: Identifying Strategic Risk

By: Robert Simons

This module reading begins by describing the three sources of strategic risk—operations risk, asset impairment risk, and competitive risk—and demonstrates how these risks can undermine an entire business. To assist in the identification of these risks, the risk... View Details

Keywords: Management Control Systems; Implementing Strategy; Execution; Risk Assessment; Operational Control; Asset Impairment; Franchise Risk; Fraud; Strategy; Information Management

January 2023
Supplement

Organizational Climate Transition Risk Model

By: George Serafeim and Benjamin Maletta

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Transition; Carbon Footprint; Business Analysis; Valuation; Climate Change

December 2022
Technical Note

Risks and Opportunities from the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: A Business Analysis Framework

By: George Serafeim

The transition to a low carbon economy introduces many risks and opportunities for businesses. Risks emerge from regulatory actions, such as carbon taxes and cap and trade systems, technological innovation that develop alternatives for customers making existing... View Details

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Opportunities; Environmental Sustainability; Carbon Footprint; Risk Management; Competitive Dynamics; Business Analysis; Climate Change; Accounting; Finance; Valuation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Technological Innovation; Transition; Product Positioning; Renewable Energy; Analysis

Article

Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment

By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States

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Article

Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan

We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

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October 2011 (Revised August 2017)
Case

Veracity Worldwide in Syria: Assessing Political Risk in a Volatile Environment

By: Aldo Musacchio and Sophus A. Reinert

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Government and Politics; Business and Government Relations; Syria

October 26, 2022
Article

Climate Risk Is Growing. Is Your Company Prepared?

By: John D. Macomber

Most people don’t have a strategy for how to handle the worsening perils of flooding, wildfires and extreme heat. They should adopt a four-step process for protecting their property, whether it be a home or a business. First, they should prioritize how important... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Change; Risk Management; Crisis Management; Insurance

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winter 1997
Article

Risk and Reward in Private Equity Investments: The Challenge of Performance Assessment

By: Paul A. Gompers and J. Lerner

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Motivation and Incentives; For-Profit Firms; Equity; Investment; Problems and Challenges; Performance

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June 2009
Case

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

The senior vice president of project finance for a global oil and gas company must determine the weighted average cost of capital for the company as a whole and each of its divisions as part of the annual capital budgeting process. The case uses comparable companies to... View Details

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Cost of Capital; Cash Flow; Capital Structure; Valuation; Capital Budgeting; Energy Industry

2020
Working Paper

Novel Risks

By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes

All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Policy; Failure; Organizational Change and Adaptation

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June 2009
Teaching Note

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

Teaching Note for 4129 View Details

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Capital Structure; Cash Flow

June 2009
Supplement

Midland Energy Resources, Inc.: Cost of Capital, Instructors Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Joel L. Heilprin

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Risk Management; Valuation; Capital Structure; Cash Flow

2024
Working Paper

Hidden Risk

By: Daniel Barth, Phillip Monin, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

Since 2013, large U.S. hedge fund advisers have been required to report risk exposures in their regulatory filings. Using these data, we first establish that managers’ perceptions of risk contain useful information that is not embedded in fund returns. Investor flows... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Investment Funds; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Communication Strategy; Financial Services Industry

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January 2014
Article

Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty

By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer

Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details

Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking