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- All HBS Web
(4,598)
- People (12)
- News (1,503)
- Research (2,161)
- Events (13)
- Multimedia (65)
- Faculty Publications (1,206)
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- August 2019 (Revised September 2021)
- Background Note
Analytical Tools in Private Equity: Return Bridge
By: Victoria Ivashina and Abhijit Tagade
This note explains the rationale and derivation behind “return bridge,” a key analytical tool used in the private equity industry to understand sources of value-add. The note elaborates on the advantages and the shortcomings of the return bridge. View Details
Ivashina, Victoria, and Abhijit Tagade. "Analytical Tools in Private Equity: Return Bridge." Harvard Business School Background Note 220-019, August 2019. (Revised September 2021.) (Prof. Ivashina is using this note for course this semester.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated
By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main... View Details
Keywords: All-shareholder Returns; Capital Flows; Dividend Reinvestment; Equity Premium; Total Shareholder Returns; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Timing
Fried, Jesse M., Paul Ma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-036, November 2021.
- 2019
- Report
Prime Minister's Scientist Return to India (SRI) Program: Proposal
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Tarun Khanna
A Summary of a set of policies proposed to the Indian Government regarding return migration. View Details
Choudhury, Prithwiraj, and Tarun Khanna. "Prime Minister's Scientist Return to India (SRI) Program: Proposal." Report, September 2019.
- September 2019
- Article
Household Matters: Revisiting the Returns to Capital Among Female Microentrepreneurs
By: Arielle Bernhardt, Erica Field, Rohini Pande and Natalia Rigol
Multiple field experiments report positive financial returns to capital shocks for male and not female microentrepreneurs. But these analyses overlook the fact that female entrepreneurs often reside with male entrepreneurs. Using data from experiments in India, Sri... View Details
Bernhardt, Arielle, Erica Field, Rohini Pande, and Natalia Rigol. "Household Matters: Revisiting the Returns to Capital Among Female Microentrepreneurs." American Economic Review: Insights 1, no. 2 (September 2019): 141–160.
- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Present Value; Investment Return; Accounting; Valuation; Information; Framework
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-081, January 2021.
- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- March 2004 (Revised October 2013)
- Case
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details
Keywords: Diversification; International CAPM; CAPM; Home Bias; Currency Risk; Exchange Rate Risk; International Stock Market Returns; United States; Currency Exchange Rate; Stocks; Financial Markets; International Finance; Investment Return; Currency; Risk and Uncertainty; Emerging Markets; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry; United States; Australia; Canada; China; Germany; India; Japan; United Kingdom
Desai, Mihir A., Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer, and Mark Veblen. "Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Case 204-141, March 2004. (Revised October 2013.)
- October 2014 (Revised November 2016)
- Technical Note
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) vs. Customer Lifetime Return on Investment (CLROI)
By: Elie Ofek
This note presents two related measures for assessing the financial value of a customer to the firm. The first is the well-known measure of Customer Lifetime Value, or CLV for short. The second, which has received much less attention, treats the acquisition of a... View Details
Keywords: Customer Lifetime Value; Return On Investment; Segmentation; Social Networks; Customer Relationship Management; Marketing Strategy; Investment Return; Social and Collaborative Networks; Social Media
Ofek, Elie. "Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) vs. Customer Lifetime Return on Investment (CLROI)." Harvard Business School Technical Note 515-049, October 2014. (Revised November 2016.)
- August 2005 (Revised April 2014)
- Teaching Note
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details
Keywords: Diversification; International CAPM; CAPM; Home Bias; Currency Risk; Exchange Rate Risk; International Stock Market Returns; Financial Services Industry; United States; Currency Exchange Rate; Stocks; Financial Markets; International Finance; Investment Return; Currency; Risk and Uncertainty; Emerging Markets; Investment Portfolio; United States; Australia; Canada; China; Germany; India; Japan; United Kingdom
- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Flow-Driven ESG Returns
I show that the recent returns to ESG investing are strongly driven by price impact
from flows towards ESG funds. Using data on institutional trades, I estimate the
market’s ability to accommodate the demand of ESG funds, which is given by the
elasticity of... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Financial Markets; Investment Return
van der Beck, Philippe. "Flow-Driven ESG Returns." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 21-71, November 2023.
- 15 Feb 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
- 2007
- Other Unpublished Work
Round Numbers and Security Returns
By: Edward Johnson, Nicole Bastian Johnson and Devin M. Shanthikumar
We document consistent differences in daily stock returns related to round numbers. In particular, we examine returns following previous day closing prices that are just above or just below round number benchmarks. We find, for both one-digit, two-digit and three-digit... View Details
- June 2001
- Article
Expected Option Returns
By: Joshua D. Coval and Tyler Shumway
Keywords: Investment Return
Coval, Joshua D., and Tyler Shumway. "Expected Option Returns." Journal of Finance 56, no. 3 (June 2001).
- 2018
- Working Paper
Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets
By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu
We investigate how dynamic pricing can lead to more product returns in the online retail industry. Using detailed sales data of more than two million transactions from the Indian online retail market, where price promotions are very common, we document two types of... View Details
Keywords: Cash On Delivery; Dynamic Pricing; Online Retail; Payment Methods; Strategic Customer Behavior; Opportunistic Returns; Price; Policy; Consumer Behavior; Emerging Markets; Retail Industry
Bandi, Chaithanya, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe, and Zhiji Xu. "Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-030, September 2018.
- 2003
- Class Lecture
Return on Management
By: Robert L. Simons
Simons, Robert L. "Return on Management." Boston: Harvard Business School Publishing Class Lecture, 2003. Electronic. (Faculty Lecture: HBSP Product Number 385XC.)