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- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
- August 2008
- Article
Economic Links and Predictable Returns
By: Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini
This paper finds evidence of return predictability across economically linked firms. We test the hypothesis that in the presence of investors subject to attention constraints, stock prices do not promptly incorporate news about economically related firms, generating... View Details
Keywords: Economics; Price; Assets; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Stocks; Equity; Strategy; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Cohen, Lauren, and Andrea Frazzini. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns." Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (August 2008). (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2008. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of BSI Gamma Foundation Research Grant presented by BSI Gamma Foundation.)
- Article
Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability
By: Mark Seasholes and Terrence Hendershott
This paper examines the trading behavior of two groups of liquidity providers (specialists and competing market makers) using a six-year panel of NYSE data. Trades of each group are negatively correlated with contemporaneous price changes. To test for return... View Details
Keywords: Liquidity; Market Makers; Market Efficiency; Inventory; Liquidity Provision; Market Design; Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Investment Return
Seasholes, Mark, and Terrence Hendershott. "Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability." Journal of Banking & Finance 45 (August 2014): 140–151.
- Article
Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Shorting Demand and Predictability of Returns." Journal of Investment Management 7, no. 1 (First Quarter 2009): 36–52.
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
- November 2003
- Article
The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details
Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 70, no. 2 (November 2003): 261–291.
- August 2006
- Article
Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
- 1996
- Other Unpublished Work
Testing for Structural Change in the Predictability of Asset Returns
By: Luis M. Viceira
Viceira, Luis M. "Testing for Structural Change in the Predictability of Asset Returns." 1996.
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- March 2013
- Article
Misvaluing Innovation
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
- 2016
- Chapter
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Chap. 10 in Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, edited by Pietro Veronesi, 191–209. Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
- 09 Dec 2021
- News
Higher Returns
consumers? RS: It's important to drive home the optimistic side of all this. I think that, you know, profit margins and revenue predictions aside, we are engaged in this really thrilling age for business. And that doesn't mean just... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price... View Details
- December 2013
- Article
Legislating Stock Prices
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important... View Details
Keywords: Legislator Incentives; Voting; Return Predictability; Lobbying; Motivation and Incentives; Government Legislation; Stocks
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- 2014
- Article
Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Dimitri Vayanos
We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs.... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 663–713. (Also earlier version NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13806, February 2008.)