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- 2024
- Working Paper
LASH Risk and Interest Rates
By: Laura Alfaro, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell and Ioana Neamtu
We introduce a framework to understand and quantify a form of liquidity risk that we dub Liquidity After Solvency Hedging or “LASH” risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against losses, using strategies that lead to liquidity needs when the value... View Details
Keywords: Liquidity; Monetary Policy; Non-bank Intermediaries; Hedging; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Funds; Financial Condition; Interest Rates
Alfaro, Laura, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell, and Ioana Neamtu. "LASH Risk and Interest Rates." Bank of England Staff Working Papers, No. 1,073, May 2024. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33241, December 2024.)
- 2016
- Working Paper
Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity
By: Gordon Y Liao
I document economically large and persistent discrepancies in the pricing of credit risk between corporate bonds denominated in different currencies. The discrepancies amount to 50-100 basis points on trillions of dollars of debt notional. I relate this violation of... View Details
Keywords: Market Segmentation; Debt Issuance; Covered Interest Rate Parity; Cross-currency Basis; Credit Risk; Financial Markets; Credit
Liao, Gordon Y. "Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity." Working Paper, October 2016.
- February 1994 (Revised February 1996)
- Case
Union Carbide Corporation: Interest Rate Risk Management
By: Peter Tufano
Union Carbide's board of directors is asked to evaluate a proposal from the staff treasurer's that would articulate policies to manage its debt portfolio. The staff proposes that shareholder value will be maximized if the firm manages its exposure to interest rates by... View Details
Tufano, Peter, and Jon Headley. "Union Carbide Corporation: Interest Rate Risk Management." Harvard Business School Case 294-057, February 1994. (Revised February 1996.)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
- June 2023
- Article
Regulatory Limits to Risk Management
By: Ishita Sen
Variable annuities, the largest liability of U.S. life insurers, are investment products containing long-dated minimum return guarantees. I show that guarantees with similar economic risks are treated differently by regulation and these differences impact insurers’... View Details
Keywords: Interest Rate Risk; Variable Annuities; Capital Regulation; Reinsurance; Derivatives; Risk Management; Interest Rates; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
Sen, Ishita. "Regulatory Limits to Risk Management." Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 6 (June 2023): 2175–2223. (Lead Article and Editor's Choice, Winner of the RFS Rising Scholar Award 2024.)
- 1993
- Article
Interest Rate Parity and the Exchange Risk Premium
By: E. S. Mayfield and R. Murphy
Mayfield, E. S., and R. Murphy. "Interest Rate Parity and the Exchange Risk Premium." Economics Letters (1993).
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States
Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.
- January 2008 (Revised July 2010)
- Case
Wal-Mart's Use of Interest Rate Swaps
"Wal-Mart's Use of Interest Rate Swaps" recounts Wal-Mart's use of interest rate swaps to hedge the fair value of its fixed-rate debt against changing interest rates. This case provides students with a foundation for understanding the use of and accounting for more... View Details
Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Financial Statements; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Corporate Disclosure
Kimbrough, Michael D., Michael Faulkender, Nicole Thorne Jenkins, and Rachel Gordon. "Wal-Mart's Use of Interest Rate Swaps." Harvard Business School Case 108-038, January 2008. (Revised July 2010.)
- October 1997
- Article
Real Interest Rates and Growth: Improving on Some Deflating Experiences
By: Huw Pill
Pill, Huw. "Real Interest Rates and Growth: Improving on Some Deflating Experiences." Journal of Development Studies 34, no. 1 (October 1997): 85–110.
- June 2018
- Article
Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity
By: Wenxin Du, Alexander Tepper and Adrien Verdelhan
We find that deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition imply large, persistent, and systematic arbitrage opportunities in one of the largest asset markets in the world. Contrary to the common view, these deviations for major currencies are not... View Details
Du, Wenxin, Alexander Tepper, and Adrien Verdelhan. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity." Journal of Finance 73, no. 3 (June 2018): 915–957.
- March 2015
- Article
Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
Changes in monetary policy have surprisingly strong effects on forward real rates in the distant future. A 100 basis point increase in the two-year nominal yield on a Federal Open Markets Committee announcement day is associated with a 42 basis point increase in the... View Details
Hanson, Samuel G., and Jeremy C. Stein. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 3 (March 2015): 429–448.
- May 1974
- Article
On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Finance 29, no. 2 (May 1974): 449–470. (Chapter 12 in Continuous-Time Finance.)
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Central Banking; Interest Rates; Valuation
Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, January 2022.
- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices
By: Ishita Sen, Umang Khetan, Jane Li and Ioana Neamtu
We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details
Keywords: Interest Rates; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Insurance; Investment Banking; Risk and Uncertainty
Sen, Ishita, Umang Khetan, Jane Li, and Ioana Neamtu. "The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-052, February 2024.
- July 1989
- Article
Real Interest Rates and the Cost of Capital: A Comparison of the United States and Japan
By: Timothy A. Luehrman and W. Carl Kester
Luehrman, Timothy A., and W. Carl Kester. "Real Interest Rates and the Cost of Capital: A Comparison of the United States and Japan." Japan and the World Economy 1, no. 3 (July 1989): 279–301.
- 2024
- Article
Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 115–151.
- 11 Sep 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Keywords: by Luis M. Viceira
- 2015
- Working Paper
Banks' Risk Exposures
By: Juliane Begenau, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider
This paper studies U.S. banks' exposure to interest rate and credit risk. We exploit the factor structure in interest rates to represent many bank positions in terms of simple factor portfolios. This approach delivers time varying measures of exposure that are... View Details
Begenau, Juliane, Monika Piazzesi, and Martin Schneider. "Banks' Risk Exposures." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21334, July 2015.