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(234)
- News (12)
- Research (197)
- Events (2)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (74)
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- August 2014
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)
By: John Gourville
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket.
These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
- May 2017
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
- July 2019
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)." Harvard Business School Case 520-012, July 2019.
- August 2018
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018.
- 2025
- Working Paper
New Product Diffusion Within Retailers: The Effect of Managerial Quality on Rollout
By: Tomomichi Amano and Jorge Tamayo
Retailers are key intermediaries through which consumers encounter innovation in the form of new products. How are these products rolled out within retailers? We observe significant variation in the availability of new products across stores in a large retail chain in... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Quality; Firm Performance; Diffusion Of Innovation; New Product Rollout; Retailing; Distribution Channels; Product Launch; Management Skills; Retail Industry; Colombia
Amano, Tomomichi, and Jorge Tamayo. "New Product Diffusion Within Retailers: The Effect of Managerial Quality on Rollout." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-041, February 2025.
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.
By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)
- Summer 2018
- Article
Scale versus Scope in the Diffusion of New Technology: Evidence from the Farm Tractor
By: Daniel P. Gross
Although tractors are now used in nearly every agricultural field operation and in the production of nearly all crops, they first developed with much more limited application. Early diffusion was accordingly rapid in these narrower applications but limited in scope... View Details
Keywords: Technology Diffusion; Spatial Technology Diffusion; Farm Tractors; R＆D; General-purpose Technologies; Technology Adoption; Agribusiness; Transportation; Research and Development; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States
Gross, Daniel P. "Scale versus Scope in the Diffusion of New Technology: Evidence from the Farm Tractor." RAND Journal of Economics 49, no. 2 (Summer 2018): 427–452.
- November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion." Harvard Business School Case 502-045, November 2001. (Revised September 2002.)
- January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)." Harvard Business School Case 506-050, January 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Ratcheting, Competition, and the Diffusion of Technological Change: The Case of Televisions Under an Energy Efficiency Program
By: Tomomichi Amano and Hiroshi Ohashi
In differentiated goods markets with societal implications, quality standards are commonly implemented to avoid the under-provision of innovation. Firms have clear incentives to engage in strategic behavior because policymakers use market outcomes as a benchmark in... View Details
Keywords: Product Differentiation; Energy Efficiency Standards; Ratcheting; Diffusion Of Innovation; Technological Innovation; Competition; Quality; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy
Amano, Tomomichi, and Hiroshi Ohashi. "Ratcheting, Competition, and the Diffusion of Technological Change: The Case of Televisions Under an Energy Efficiency Program." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-021, September 2018.
- 1999
- Working Paper
Product Modularity, Vertical Disintegration and the Diffusion of Competence
By: Clayton M. Christensen, Matt Verlinden and George Westerman
- November 2011
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2011 version includes: sliced peanut butter, artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks, interactive tombstones, and stride-changing running shoes. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption.... View Details
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)." Harvard Business School Case 512-047, November 2011.
- February 2021
- Article
Platform Diffusion at Temporary Gatherings: Social Coordination and Ecosystem Emergence
By: Tommy Pan Fang, Andy Wu and David R. Clough
Software platforms create value by cultivating an ecosystem of complementary products and services. Existing explanations for how a prospective complementor chooses platforms to join assume the complementor has rich information about the range of available platforms.... View Details
Keywords: Innovation Ecosystems; Technology Diffusion; Hackathon; Contagion; Software Applications; Software Development; Software Engineering; Technology Strategy; Technology Adoption; Technological Innovation; Information Infrastructure; Innovation Strategy; Digital Platforms; Network Effects; Applications and Software; Information Technology; Technology Industry; Computer Industry; Information Technology Industry; Video Game Industry
Fang, Tommy Pan, Andy Wu, and David R. Clough. "Platform Diffusion at Temporary Gatherings: Social Coordination and Ecosystem Emergence." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 2 (February 2021): 233–272. (Lead article.)
- 18 Nov 2014
- Working Paper Summaries
Financial Development and Technology Diffusion
Keywords: by Diego Comin & Ramana Nanda
- 22 May 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
The Speed of New Ideas: Trust, Institutions and the Diffusion of New Products
Keywords: by Felix Oberholzer-Gee & Joel Waldfogel
- April 2008
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
- February 2018
- Article
Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns
By: William R. Kerr
This study tests the importance of Ricardian technology differences for international trade. The empirical analysis has three comparative advantages: including emerging and advanced economies, isolating panel variation regarding the link between productivity and... View Details
Keywords: Exports; Comparative Advantage; Technological Transfer; Innovation; Networks; Patents; Residency; Technology Adoption; Trade; Research and Development; Immigration; United States
Kerr, William R. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns." World Bank Economic Review 32, no. 1 (February 2018): 163–182.
- 2013
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns
By: William R. Kerr
This study tests the importance of Ricardian technology differences for international trade. The empirical analysis has three comparative advantages: including emerging and advanced economies, isolating panel variation regarding the link between productivity and... View Details
Keywords: Exports; Comparative Advantage; Technological Transfer; Innovation; Networks; Patents; Residency; Technology Adoption; Trade; Research and Development; Immigration; United States
Kerr, William R. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-039, November 2013. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19657, November 2013.)
- 2007
- Working Paper
The Speed of New Ideas: Trust, Institutions and the Diffusion of New Products
By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Victor Calanog
Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, and Victor Calanog. "The Speed of New Ideas: Trust, Institutions and the Diffusion of New Products." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-063, April 2007.