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- February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
- Background Note
Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product
By: Elie Ofek
Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
- Research Summary
Technology Adoption
How large are cross-country differences in technology adoption? How important are they to explain the large observed cross-country differences in per capita income? What factors accelerate of slowdown the adoption of technology? What factors affect the shape of the... View Details
- Research Summary
Technology Adoption
Professor Ashraf's research in technology adoption addresses the puzzling question of why easy and accessible technology is not used, even when it has the potential to save lives or significantly increase income.
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- November 2003 (Revised April 2004)
- Background Note
Why Consumers Don't Buy: The Psychology of New Product Adoption
Looks at the consumer psychology of new product adoption. Identifies a key reason why consumers do not adopt innovations as quickly as developers think they should--an irrational resistance to behavioral change. Identifies strategies for firms to manage and overcome... View Details
Gourville, John T. "Why Consumers Don't Buy: The Psychology of New Product Adoption." Harvard Business School Background Note 504-056, November 2003. (Revised April 2004.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.
By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)
- 2016
- Working Paper
Innovation Adoption and Organizational Identity: Identity Dynamism as a Strategic Resource for Top Management Team Decision Making
By: Ryan Raffaelli, Mary Ann Glynn and Michael Tushman
Organizations continuously face decisions about whether to adopt radical innovations. We examine the relationship between innovation adoption and identity, linking identity with firm strategy to explain innovation adoption over time. We conceptualize identity as... View Details
- October 2022
- Article
A Structural Model of Organizational Buying for Business-to-Business Markets: Innovation Adoption with Share-of-Wallet Contracts
By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir
The paper develops the first structural model of organizational buying to study innovation diffusion in a B2B market. Our model is particularly applicable for routinized exchange relationships, whereby centralized buyers periodically evaluate and choose contracts,... View Details
Keywords: Organizational Buying Behavior; Healthcare Marketing; B2B Markets; B2B Innovation; New Product Diffusion; New Product Adoption; Organizations; Acquisition; Behavior; Health Care and Treatment; Marketing; Innovation and Invention
Mojir, Navid, and K. Sudhir. "A Structural Model of Organizational Buying for Business-to-Business Markets: Innovation Adoption with Share-of-Wallet Contracts." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 59, no. 5 (October 2022): 883–907.
- May 2017
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
- July 2019
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)." Harvard Business School Case 520-012, July 2019.
- 30 Jul 2012
- Research & Ideas
How Technology Adoption Affects Global Economies
look at how technology interacts with geographical diffusion." In a series of research papers, Comin and colleagues investigated the relationship between a country's historical rate of technology adoption and its per capita income. It... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
- 2016
- Book
Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services
By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
This book bridges the gap between what academics know, and what innovation stakeholders—from managers, to investors, to analysts, to consumers—need to know about how new products and services are expected to perform in the marketplace. The book develops a compelling... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Technology Diffusion; New Products; Customer Lifetime Value; Monetization Strategy; Social Influence; Innovation Adoption; Forecasting Demand; Commercialization; Marketing Strategy; Practice; Customer Value and Value Chain; Research; Innovation and Management; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development
Ofek, Elie, Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services. University of Chicago Press, 2016.
- September 2014 (Revised April 2016)
- Case
Cree Inc.: Introducing the LED Light Bulb
By: John Gourville and Michael Norris
Cree, a North Carolina-based maker of light emitting diodes (LEDs), has just introduced its first consumer product—an LED light bulb. It is designed as an energy efficient replacement for the ubiquitous incandescent light bulb. But given that it is an unfamiliar... View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Innovation; Product Adoption; Technological Innovation; Technology Adoption; Energy Conservation; Product Launch; Consumer Products Industry; North Carolina
Gourville, John, and Michael Norris. "Cree Inc.: Introducing the LED Light Bulb." Harvard Business School Case 515-026, September 2014. (Revised April 2016.)
- August 2018
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018.
- September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
- Case
Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents
By: Elie Ofek
Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
Ofek, Elie. "Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents." Harvard Business School Case 509-028, September 2008. (Revised June 2011.)
- May 2005
- Exercise
Forecasting the Adoption of E-books
By: Elie Ofek
Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption
Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
- 2020
- Chapter
El problema de la productividad [The Productivity Problem]
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The weak performance of the Latin American region in terms of the growth of its GDP is largely due to its low productivity growth. In fact, the region's main problem has been its lack of efficiency in combining capital and labor to produce. In this chapter, we... View Details
Keywords: GDP Growth; Productivity Growth; Efficiency; Labor; Capital; Growth and Development; Latin America
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "El problema de la productividad [The Productivity Problem]." Chap. 3 in El desafío del desarrollo en América Latina. Políticas para una región más productiva, integrada e inclusiva [The Challenge of Development in Latin America: Policies for a More Productive, Integrated and Inclusive Region], 85–123. Caracas, Venezuela: CAF – Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina, 2020, Spanish ed.
- Article
Quantifying the Use of Connected Digital Products in Clinical Research
By: Caroline Marra, Jacqueline L. Chen, Andrea Coravos and Ariel D. Stern
Over recent years, the adoption of connected technologies has grown dramatically, with potential for improving health care delivery, research, and patient experience. Yet, little has been documented about the prevalence and use of connected digital products (e.g.,... View Details
Keywords: Connected Digital Products; Clinical Trials; Health Testing and Trials; Information Technology; Research
Marra, Caroline, Jacqueline L. Chen, Andrea Coravos, and Ariel D. Stern. "Quantifying the Use of Connected Digital Products in Clinical Research." Art. 50. npj Digital Medicine 3 (2020).
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Revised-Is-Quality Heuristic: Why Consumers Prefer Products Labeled as Revised
By: Ximena Garcia-Rada, Leslie K. John, Ed O’Brien and Michael I. Norton
From downloading never-ending updates to tracking ever-newer releases, consumers
today are surrounded by revised products that purport to have improved upon their predecessors.
Seven experiments examine when and why consumers rely on a “revised-is-quality”... View Details
Keywords: Product Change; Versioning; Expectancy Effects; Heuristics; Intuitive Processing; Product Marketing; Change; Perception; Consumer Behavior
Garcia-Rada, Ximena, Leslie K. John, Ed O’Brien, and Michael I. Norton. "The Revised-Is-Quality Heuristic: Why Consumers Prefer Products Labeled as Revised." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-087, February 2019. (Revised September 2024. Revise and resubmit, Journal of Marketing Research.)
- 11 Feb 2020
- Sharpening Your Skills
10 Rules Entrepreneurs Need to Know Before Adopting AI
of the industry in terms of adopting AI. Is the industry mature, with infrastructure already in place to collect data and ready to implement? Are industry stakeholders willing to adopt AI? Do they agree with... View Details
Keywords: by Rocio Wu
- March 2012
- Article
How Early Adoption Has Increased Wealth--Until Now
By: Diego Comin and Bart Hobijn
Societies that are better at utilizing tools are likely to be more productive. The authors have studied when 161 countries adopted 104 technologies over the past 200 years, and they conclude that profound economic advantages-as measured by per capita income-accrue to... View Details
Keywords: Technology Adoption; Wealth; Development Economics; Performance Productivity; Competitive Advantage
Comin, Diego, and Bart Hobijn. "How Early Adoption Has Increased Wealth--Until Now." Harvard Business Review 90, no. 3 (March 2012): 34–35.