Publications

2019
Article

More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors

By: Alberto Cavallo

I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past... View Details

Keywords: Amazon; Online Prices; Inflation; Uniform Pricing; Price Stickiness; Monetary Economics; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; United States

2024
Working Paper

Adjusting Prices in the Long-tail: The Role of Competitive Monitoring

By: Ayelet Israeli and Eric Anderson

Most e-commerce retailers offer a long-tail of very low demand products. Individually, these items may have low sales but collectively they are critical to the overall e-commerce business model. Because of their minimal sales, pricing is a constant challenge. The... View Details

Keywords: Algorithmic Pricing; Ecommerce; Price Monitoring; Price; Competition; Retail Industry

Article

Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-Channel Retailers

By: Alberto Cavallo

Online prices are increasingly used for measurement and research applications, yet little is known about their relation to prices in physical stores, where most retail transactions occur. I conduct the first large-scale comparison of prices simultaneously collected... View Details

Keywords: Online Prices; Offline Prices; Multi-channel Retailers; Price; Internet and the Web; Measurement and Metrics; Retail Industry

22 Mar 2017
Research & Ideas

What's the Ideal Frequency for a Sales Quota?

quota. This raises a key question for sales managers: What kind of quota is the most motivating? Could salesforce performance be kick-started if that quota incentive was delivered more frequently? The answer is contained in a new paper, The Effects of Quota View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

03 Feb 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Competition in Pricing Algorithms

Keywords: by Zach Y. Brown and Alexander MacKay

April 2021
Article

A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time

By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir

In retail settings with price promotions, consumers often search across stores and time. However, the search literature typically only models one pass search across stores, ignoring revisits to stores; the choice literature using scanner data has modeled search across... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Search; Multi-pass Search; Price Search; Store Search; Spatial Search; Temporal Search; Spatiotemporal Search; Dynamic Structural Models; MPEC; Price Promotions; Store Loyalty; Consumer Behavior; Price; Spending; Marketing; Mathematical Methods

SSRN

2013
Working Paper

Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention

By: Mark Seasholes, Terrence Hendershott, Sunny X. Li and Albert J. Menkveld

This paper studies the role that limited attention and inefficient risk sharing play in stock price deviations from the efficient prices at horizons from one day to one month. We expand the Due (2010) slow-moving capital model to analyze multiple groups of investors... View Details

Keywords: Transitory Volatility; Limited Attention; Individuals; Market Makers; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Volatility

12 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Using Online Prices for Measuring Real Consumption Across Countries

Keywords: by Alberto Cavallo, W. Erwin Diewert, Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer

Research Summary

Output and asset price fluctuations

What are the sources of business cycles? How are these shocks propagated in the economy? Why are their effects so persistent? How can we explain asset price fluctuations? How are shocks transmitted internationally?To study these questions, I have developed a series... View Details

09 Mar 2020
Research & Ideas

Warring Algorithms Could Be Driving Up Consumer Prices

retain more control, says MacKay. “It might take an expert a week to redo their analysis and update prices as conditions change, but if you have the factors that go into that analysis codified as part of a View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz; Retail

18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

explains Cavallo, the Thomas S. Murphy Professor of Business Administration at HBS. “They tend to rely on time-dependent models, which assume a fixed frequency of price changes. Many of them failed to... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

July 2021
Article

Augmenting Markets with Mechanisms

By: Samuel Antill and Darrell Duffie

We explain how the common practice of size-discovery trade detracts from overall financial market efficiency. At each of a series of size-discovery sessions, traders report their desired trades, generating allocations of the asset and cash that rely on the most recent... View Details

Keywords: Mechanism Design; Price Impact; Size Discovery; Allocative Efficiency; Workup; Dark Pool; Financial Markets; Market Design; Performance Efficiency

2017
Working Paper

Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham

We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in US equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size, a very persistent... View Details

Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Beta; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Factor Investing

Fourth Quarter 2017
Article

Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham

We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in U.S. equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size (a very persistent... View Details

Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Beta; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Factor Investing

December 2024
Article

Large Shocks Travel Fast

By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara

We document a sizeable increase in the frequency of price adjustments following the large energy shocks of 2022. We use a tractable New Keynesian model, calibrated to the pre-shock data, to interpret such a pattern. The calibration highlights the state-dependence of... View Details

Keywords: System Shocks; Price; Cost; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Institutions

25 Aug 2018
News

'Amazon effect' could have impact on inflation dynamics: paper

2023
Working Paper

Dynamic Pricing, Intertemporal Spillovers, and Efficiency

By: Alexander J. MacKay, Dennis Svartbäck and Anders G. Ekholm

Pricing technology that allows firms to rapidly adjust prices has two potential benefits. Time-varying prices can respond to high-frequency demand shocks to generate greater revenues, and they can also be used to smooth out demand to reduce costs. Using data... View Details

Keywords: Price; Consumer Behavior; Applications and Software; Volatility

SSRN

August 2018
Article

Extrapolation and Bubbles

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods