Publications

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

August 2018
Article

Extrapolation and Bubbles

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

August 2009
Article

Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles

By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel

We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details

Keywords: Asset Price Bubbles; Investment Experience; Investor Age; Trend Chasing; Investment; Experience and Expertise; Age; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Information Technology; Stocks

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

June 2008
Article

'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?

By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith

We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details

Keywords: Experimental Economics; Asset Markets; Bubbles; Price Bubble; Financial Markets

18 Feb 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Diagnostic Bubbles

Keywords: by Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer; Financial Services

August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
Case

Trouble with a Bubble

By: Tom Nicholas

Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Stock Market; Great Depression; Irving Fisher; Information Technology; Organizational Change and Adaptation; History; Financial Markets; Performance; Labor and Management Relations; Equity; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; United States

Educators

Purchase

02 Mar 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Extrapolation and Bubbles

Keywords: by Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer

20 Mar 2017
Working Paper Summaries

Bubbles for Fama

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You

2008
Working Paper

Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles

By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel

We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Stocks; Information Technology; Price Bubble; Asset Management; Experience and Expertise

SSRN

November 2001 (Revised January 2002)
Case

Monster.com: Success Beyond the Bubble

In 2001, Monster.com was an Internet site that, among other things, connected individuals seeking jobs with organizations wanting to hire. Its substitutes included help wanted classified advertising in newspapers. Monster was one of the few Internet companies that had... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Business Growth and Maturation; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Price Bubble; Growth and Development Strategy; Employment Industry

Educators

Purchase

05 Mar 2014
What Do You Think?

When Will the Next Dot.com Bubble Burst?

view of the bubble phenomenon in markets suggests a question for further consideration. Is "collateral" damage from tech bubbles inevitable, necessary, and useful? What do you think? Original... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Publishing; Retail

19 Feb 2007
Research & Ideas

Inexperienced Investors and Market Bubbles

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results." —standard financial disclaimer Neophyte investors—it is believed—play a role in creating asset price bubbles such as the tech collapse a few... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services

28 May 2019
News

Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble

hosted an HBS Club of New York panel discussion on cryptocurrencies earlier this year, and she’s here to help us forecast the future of digital dough. “People who got burned when the price of bitcoin crashed are now starting to do more... View Details

Keywords: Dan Morrell

2005
Chapter

Valuation Bubbles and Broadband Deployment

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Keywords: Valuation; Price Bubble; Technology Industry

March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
Case

Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?

By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner

Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question? View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management