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- All HBS Web
(71)
- News (11)
- Research (53)
- Events (4)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (23)
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- 2018
- Working Paper
Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence
By: Jennifer M. Logg, Uriel Haran and Don A. Moore
Are overconfident beliefs driven by the motivation to view oneself positively? We test the relationship between motivation and overconfidence using two distinct, but often conflated, measures: better-than-average (BTA) beliefs and overplacement. Our results suggest... View Details
Keywords: Self-perception; Overconfidence; Motivation; Better-Than-Average Effect; Specifically; Personal Characteristics; Perception; Motivation and Incentives; Cognition and Thinking
Logg, Jennifer M., Uriel Haran, and Don A. Moore. "Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-099, April 2018.
- 2022
- Article
Leadership & Overconfidence
By: Don A Moore and Max H. Bazerman
Expressions of confidence can give leaders credibility. In the political realm, they can earn votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a leader (whether a candidate or an... View Details
Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. "Leadership & Overconfidence." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 2 (2022): 59–69.
- 01 Mar 2004
- News
Curb Your Overconfidence
bargaining weaknesses, and you’ll increase the odds of proposing an offer that is acceptable to the other side. Curb Your Overconfidence Overconfidence can make the best negotiators overestimate their... View Details
- May 2011
- Article
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
- 2010
- Working Paper
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- Research Summary
A Strategic Rationale for Having Overconfident Managers, 2004
We analyze whether it might be desirable for a firm to hire an overconfident manager for strategic reasons. We analyze a tournament type version of Bertrand competition and a linear demand Cournot model. In each case there is an R&D stage where firms can invest in cost... View Details
- 27 Apr 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Is Overconfidence a Motivated Bias? Experimental Evidence
- 21 Apr 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Why Do Firms Use Non-Linear Incentive Schemes? Experimental Evidence on Sorting and Overconfidence
Keywords: by Ian Larkin & Stephen Leider
- September 2024
- Article
A Potential Pitfall of Passion: Passion Is Associated with Performance Overconfidence
By: Erica R. Bailey, Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Having passion is almost universally lauded. People strive to follow their passion at work, and organizations increasingly seek out passionate employees. Supporting the benefits of passion, prior research finds a robust relationship between passion and higher levels of... View Details
Bailey, Erica R., Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "A Potential Pitfall of Passion: Passion Is Associated with Performance Overconfidence." Social Psychological & Personality Science 15, no. 7 (September 2024): 769–779.
- May 2022
- Article
Complex Disclosure
By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin
We present evidence that unnecessarily complex disclosure can result from strategic incentives to shroud information. In our lab experiment, senders are required to report their private information truthfully, but can choose how complex to make their reports. We find... View Details
Keywords: Disclosure; Experiments; Naiveté; Overconfidence; Corporate Disclosure; Policy; Information; Complexity; Strategy; Consumer Behavior
Jin, Ginger Zhe, Michael Luca, and Daniel Martin. "Complex Disclosure." Management Science 68, no. 5 (May 2022): 3236–3261.
- 15 May 2024
- Research & Ideas
A Major Roadblock for Autonomous Cars: Motorists Believe They Drive Better
Think you’re a better driver than most people? You’re not alone. And you may be one reason self-driving cars haven’t taken off. About 77 percent of participants surveyed in a new study rated themselves superior to automated vehicles, while 60 percent thought other... View Details
Managerial Structure and Performance-Induced Trading
The literature finds that investors increase portfolio turnover following high returns, explaining it by either overconfidence or skilled trading. This paper develops a theoretical model and shows empirically that team-managed funds trade less after good... View Details
- July 24, 2024
- Article
Research: How Passion Can Backfire at Work
By: Erica R. Bailey, Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Passion has long been championed as a key to workplace success. However, scientific studies have found mixed results: On the one hand, some studies find evidence that passionate employees tend to perform better, while other research has documented null or even negative... View Details
Bailey, Erica R., Kai Krautter, Wen Wu, Adam D. Galinsky, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "Research: How Passion Can Backfire at Work." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (July 24, 2024).
- 23 Oct 2019
- Blog Post
How to Talk Gooder in Business and Life
skills—across all three buckets: verbal, nonverbal, and prosodic expression. What role does confidence play in “talking gooder”? Confidence is good, but overconfidence is bad and can make us bad listeners. Perhaps the more pertinent... View Details
- Awards
INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Publication Award
Winner of the 2019 INFORMS Decision Analysis Society Publication Award for “Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts” (Management Science, April 2017) with Victor Richmond R. Jose and Kenneth Lichtendahl. View Details
- September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
- Exercise
Exercise on Estimation
By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
- May 2012
- Article
Incentive Schemes, Sorting and Behavioral Biases of Employees: Experimental Evidence
By: Ian Larkin and Stephen Leider
We investigate how the convexity of a firm's incentives interacts with worker overconfidence to affect sorting decisions and performance. We demonstrate experimentally that overconfident employees are more likely to sort into a non-linear incentive scheme over a linear... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Performance; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias; Decisions; Employees; Wages
Larkin, Ian, and Stephen Leider. "Incentive Schemes, Sorting and Behavioral Biases of Employees: Experimental Evidence." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 4, no. 2 (May 2012).
- 22 Mar 2011
- News
Is It a Dream Job If You're Gone in a Year?
Overcoming Overconfidence: Teamwork and Self-Control
This paper analyzes interactions between agents who are overconfident regarding their own future self-control relative to others. The paper considers the problem of incentivizing several such agents, and compares two methods: assigning work individually to each... View Details