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- All HBS Web (47)
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- Article
Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem
By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity... View Details
Jose, Victor Richmond R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem." Management Science 60, no. 2 (February 2014): 463–475.
- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler. "Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-041, October 2018.
- 2009
- Article
Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric
By: Jolie M. Martin, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman and Lisa Sutherland
Research over the last several decades indicates the failure of existing nutritional labels to substantially improve the healthiness of consumers' food and beverage choices. The difficulty for policy-makers is to encapsulate a wide body of scientific knowledge in a... View Details
Keywords: Judgments; Food; Nutrition; Labels; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods
Martin, Jolie M., John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman, and Lisa Sutherland. "Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric." Journal of the American Dietetic Association 109, no. 6 (June 2009): 1088–1091.
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- 03 Jul 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
The Future of Social Enterprise
- 18 Mar 2008
- First Look
First Look: March 18, 2008
this result and assessing how future work in this field should proceed, based upon these first steps in measuring "design." Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-039.pdf Modeling Expert Opinions on Food... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 2008
- Working Paper
The Future of Social Enterprise
By: V. Kasturi Rangan, Herman B. Leonard and Susan McDonald
The Future of Social Enterprise considers the confluence of forces that is shaping the field of social enterprise, changing the way that funders, practitioners, scholars, and organizations measure performance. We trace a growing pool of potential funding sources to... View Details
Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship; Investment; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Performance Effectiveness; Social Enterprise; Consolidation; Value
Rangan, V. Kasturi, Herman B. Leonard, and Susan McDonald. "The Future of Social Enterprise." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-103, June 2008.
- 24 Apr 2007
- First Look
First Look: April 24, 2007
Luce's magazines often resonated with readers, allowing him to quickly trump competitors such as Newsweek, Forbes, The New Yorker, Esquire, and National Geographic. Yet Luce was also criticized for occasionally using his imaginative style to inject his View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 2024
- Working Paper
Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous
By: Nathan Dhaliwal, Jillian J. Jordan and Pat Barclay
What do people think of victims who conceal their victimhood? We propose that the decision to not broadcast that one has been victimized serves as a costly act of modesty—in doing so, one is potentially forgoing social support and compensation from one’s community. We... View Details
Dhaliwal, Nathan, Jillian J. Jordan, and Pat Barclay. "Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous." Working Paper, August 2024.
- 25 Jul 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research and Ideas: July 25, 2017
individual ethics and as a specific version of a broader argument made for centuries by theorists from Hume to Hayek. I also provide evidence of an example in which real-world policy judgments are consistent with this theoretical argument. Results from a novel U.S.... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 01 Nov 2022
- What Do You Think?
Why Aren’t Business Leaders More Vocal About Immigration Policy?
gone on for decades as a giant skimming effect that benefits the US while reducing the talent pool of countries offering the least opportunity. Few groups have been as maligned or as poorly portrayed as our immigrant pool. This has been... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 19 Apr 2010
- Research & Ideas
The History of Beauty
business than others, as the obstacles to entry for female entrepreneurs have been and continue to be higher for women than men in other industries, like construction, for example. So there is a lot of female entrepreneurial talent View Details
- 11 Oct 2006
- What Do You Think?
How Do We Respond to the “Dependency Ratio” Dilemma?
Summing Up Dependency ratios are useful as general indicators of future economic and social health. But they must be managed downward on both a micro and macro basis, in the opinion of the majority of respondents to this month's column.... View Details
Keywords: by Jim Heskett
- 17 Jan 2019
- Research & Ideas
Why Business Should Support Employees Who Are Caregivers
framework for balancing a career and life. The linear career paths common at law, accounting, and professional services firms rarely take into account the personal milestones and unexpected challenges that all employees experience. Caring... View Details
- 11 May 2009
- Research & Ideas
The IT Leader’s Hero Quest
with a diverse set of companies. "In this way, we could pool all this knowledge and distill it down to the essential principles that CIOs can generally apply, regardless of industry or size of firm, while describing 'realistic' and... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
- 01 Nov 2019
- What Do You Think?
Should Non-Compete Clauses Be Abolished?
violation of a non-compete? That’s the question raised by GYurieff, who said: “The difference in knowledge an individual brings into an organization and the knowledge this individual may take out of the organization—how is it measured? How is valued and by whom?” The... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 02 Apr 2013
- First Look
First Look: April 2
returns can produce large valuation errors. Download working paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2182628 The Impact of Pooling on Throughput Time in Discretionary Work Settings: An Empirical Investigation of Emergency Department Length of... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 03 Apr 2013
- What Do You Think?
Will Women Leaders Influence the Way We Work?
next (question) already???" Others were split on whether the gender of the leader matters. And there didn't appear to be a discernable difference in the opinions of men and women among the thoughtful responses. Clara Tenby commented... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 04 Aug 2009
- First Look
First Look: August 4
accumulation of patents generates an increasing number of claims on sequential innovation. We study the equilibrium innovation activity under three regimes: patents, no-patents, and patent pools. Patent pools increase the probability of... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace