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- Article
Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem
By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity... View Details
Jose, Victor Richmond R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem." Management Science 60, no. 2 (February 2014): 463–475.
- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler. "Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-041, October 2018.
- 2009
- Article
Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric
By: Jolie M. Martin, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman and Lisa Sutherland
Research over the last several decades indicates the failure of existing nutritional labels to substantially improve the healthiness of consumers' food and beverage choices. The difficulty for policy-makers is to encapsulate a wide body of scientific knowledge in a... View Details
Keywords: Judgments; Food; Nutrition; Labels; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods
Martin, Jolie M., John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, Max H. Bazerman, and Lisa Sutherland. "Modeling Expert Opinions on Food Healthfulness: A Nutrition Metric." Journal of the American Dietetic Association 109, no. 6 (June 2009): 1088–1091.
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- 03 Jul 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
The Future of Social Enterprise
- 18 Mar 2008
- First Look
First Look: March 18, 2008
this result and assessing how future work in this field should proceed, based upon these first steps in measuring "design." Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-039.pdf Modeling Expert Opinions on Food... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 2008
- Working Paper
The Future of Social Enterprise
By: V. Kasturi Rangan, Herman B. Leonard and Susan McDonald
The Future of Social Enterprise considers the confluence of forces that is shaping the field of social enterprise, changing the way that funders, practitioners, scholars, and organizations measure performance. We trace a growing pool of potential funding sources to... View Details
Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship; Investment; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Performance Effectiveness; Social Enterprise; Consolidation; Value
Rangan, V. Kasturi, Herman B. Leonard, and Susan McDonald. "The Future of Social Enterprise." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-103, June 2008.
- 24 Apr 2007
- First Look
First Look: April 24, 2007
Luce's magazines often resonated with readers, allowing him to quickly trump competitors such as Newsweek, Forbes, The New Yorker, Esquire, and National Geographic. Yet Luce was also criticized for occasionally using his imaginative style to inject his View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 2024
- Working Paper
Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous
By: Nathan Dhaliwal, Jillian J. Jordan and Pat Barclay
What do people think of victims who conceal their victimhood? We propose that the decision to not broadcast that one has been victimized serves as a costly act of modesty—in doing so, one is potentially forgoing social support and compensation from one’s community. We... View Details
Dhaliwal, Nathan, Jillian J. Jordan, and Pat Barclay. "Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous." Working Paper, August 2024.
- Web
Finance - Faculty & Research
improves self-reported fertilizer management practices, though not enough to measurably affect yields. Satellite measurements calibrated using OLS produce more precise point estimates than farmer-reported data, suggesting power gains. However, View Details
- 25 Jul 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research and Ideas: July 25, 2017
individual ethics and as a specific version of a broader argument made for centuries by theorists from Hume to Hayek. I also provide evidence of an example in which real-world policy judgments are consistent with this theoretical argument. Results from a novel U.S.... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 18 Mar 2016
- Blog Post
What is an IFC?
partners in a relatively short timeframe. However, the IFC had more of a cohort experience in that all of the teams, although working with different clients, had significant overlap in the problems we were working on. For example, my team was working on transportation... View Details
- Web
Health Care - Faculty & Research
stay (LOS) in the ED, number of diagnostic imaging tests ordered during a patient encounter, and patients' return with admission to the ED within 72 h. The association between outcomes and physician batch tendency was measured using a multivariable View Details
- Profile
Jay Bhandari
of his selection tests, where dozens of candidates had to swim together across a pool at night without visibility. Short on breath and under time pressure, many would attempt to exit the pool as quickly as... View Details
- Web
The Gift of Global Talent
Bill argues, is the world’s most precious resource. Featured Article Navigating Talent Hotspots William R. Kerr SEP-OCT 2018 | HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW How can companies most effectively harness the benefits of these urban pools of... View Details
- 01 Nov 2022
- What Do You Think?
Why Aren’t Business Leaders More Vocal About Immigration Policy?
gone on for decades as a giant skimming effect that benefits the US while reducing the talent pool of countries offering the least opportunity. Few groups have been as maligned or as poorly portrayed as our immigrant pool. This has been... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 19 Apr 2010
- Research & Ideas
The History of Beauty
business than others, as the obstacles to entry for female entrepreneurs have been and continue to be higher for women than men in other industries, like construction, for example. So there is a lot of female entrepreneurial talent View Details
- 11 Oct 2006
- What Do You Think?
How Do We Respond to the “Dependency Ratio” Dilemma?
Summing Up Dependency ratios are useful as general indicators of future economic and social health. But they must be managed downward on both a micro and macro basis, in the opinion of the majority of respondents to this month's column.... View Details
Keywords: by Jim Heskett
- 17 Jan 2019
- Research & Ideas
Why Business Should Support Employees Who Are Caregivers
framework for balancing a career and life. The linear career paths common at law, accounting, and professional services firms rarely take into account the personal milestones and unexpected challenges that all employees experience. Caring... View Details