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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,052)
- News (126)
- Research (837)
- Events (11)
- Multimedia (4)
- Faculty Publications (380)
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- November 2019
- Article
When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber and Eric J. Johnson
When people make decisions with a pre-selected choice option—a “default”—they are more likely to select that option. Because defaults are easy to implement, they constitute one of the most widely employed tools in the choice architecture toolbox. However, to decide... View Details
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber, and Eric J. Johnson. "When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects." Behavioural Public Policy 3, no. 2 (November 2019): 159–186.
- 2022
- Article
How to Choose a Default
By: John Beshears, Richard T. Mason and Shlomo Benartzi
We have developed a model for setting a default when a population is choosing among ordered choices—that is, ones listed in ascending or descending order. A company, for instance, might want to set a default contribution rate that will increase employees’ average... View Details
Keywords: Nudge; Choice Architecture; Behavioral Economics; Behavioral Science; Default; Savings; Decision Choices and Conditions; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives
Beshears, John, Richard T. Mason, and Shlomo Benartzi. "How to Choose a Default." Behavioral Science & Policy 8, no. 1 (2022): 1–15.
- Article
Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence
By: Julian Zlatev, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim and Margaret A. Neale
Current theories suggest that people understand how to exploit common biases to influence others. However, these predictions have received little empirical attention. We consider a widely studied bias with special policy relevance: the default effect, which is the... View Details
Zlatev, Julian, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim, and Margaret A. Neale. "Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 52 (December 26, 2017).
- June 2019
- Article
Consequences of Debt Forgiveness: Strategic Default Contagion and Lender Learning
By: Gerardo Pérez Cavazos
I use a unique data set of loans to small business owners to examine whether lenders face adverse consequences when they grant debt forgiveness to borrowers. I provide evidence consistent with borrowers communicating their debt forgiveness to other borrowers, who then... View Details
Keywords: Debt Forgiveness; Strategic Default Contagion; Contracting; Borrowing and Debt; Communication; Learning
Pérez Cavazos, Gerardo. "Consequences of Debt Forgiveness: Strategic Default Contagion and Lender Learning." Journal of Accounting Research 57, no. 3 (June 2019): 797–841.
- August 2006
- Article
Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
- Fast Answer
Credit default swaps
Bloomberg: Type CDSW or enter Valuation of defaultable fixed-income instruments and hit the green Help key for information. See How can I get help using Bloomberg? for more detailed instructions. Datastream:... View Details
- 2019
- Working Paper
Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
Recurrent concerns over debt sustainability in emerging and developed nations have prompted renewed debate on the role of fiscal rules. Their optimality, however, remains unclear. We provide a quantitative analysis of fiscal rules in a standard model of sovereign debt... View Details
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-134, June 2016. (Also NBER Working Paper w23370. Revised January 2019.)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design
By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details
Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-026, October 2021. (Revised February 2024. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Conditional Accept.)
- 1 Sep 1979
- Conference Presentation
Rape and Physical Attractiveness: Judgements Concerning the Likelihood of Victimization
By: W. DeJong, Teresa M. Amabile and M. L. Stubbs
- Forthcoming
- Article
Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design
By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao
We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details
Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks
Ma, Le, Anywhere Sikochi, and Yajun Xiao. "Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (forthcoming). (Pre-published online February 25, 2025.)
- January 2025
- Article
Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate
By: John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and James J. Choi
We study a retirement savings plan with a default contribution rate of 12% of income, which is much higher than previously studied defaults. Twenty-five percent of employees had not opted out of this default 12 months after hire; a literature review finds that the... View Details
Keywords: Retirement Savings; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; Automatic Enrollment; Retirement; Saving; Income; Decision Choices and Conditions
Beshears, John, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and James J. Choi. "Automatic Enrollment with a 12% Default Contribution Rate." Journal of Pension Economics & Finance 24, no. 1 (January 2025): 152–182. (20th Anniversary Special Issue.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
- July 2002 (Revised February 2003)
- Case
Fresh Start? Peru's Legacy of Debt and Default (A)
By: Julio J. Rotemberg and Lisa Lewis
Considers the situation facing Alberto Fujimori as he takes office in 1990. Pays particular attention to Peru's long history of international borrowing, default, and renegotiation. This history suggests that the costs imposed by foreigners on Peru when it failed to... View Details
Rotemberg, Julio J., and Lisa Lewis. "Fresh Start? Peru's Legacy of Debt and Default (A)." Harvard Business School Case 703-001, July 2002. (Revised February 2003.)
- February 2010
- Case
Saginaw Parts Co. and the General Motors Corp. Credit Default Swap
This two-page case demonstrates how to unbundle the cost of credit extensions from product prices by observing the price of a credit default swap. It also explores how credit default swaps work, and how trade creditors are treated under U.S. bankruptcy law. Finally it... View Details
Keywords: Trade; Credit; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Laws and Statutes; Risk Management; Auto Industry; United States
Fruhan, William E. "Saginaw Parts Co. and the General Motors Corp. Credit Default Swap." Harvard Business School Case 210-056, February 2010.
- April 2003
- Teaching Note
Fresh Start? Peru's Legacy of Debt and Default (A) (TN)
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
Teaching Note for (9-703-001). View Details
Keywords: Peru
- 2008
- Chapter
The Importance of Default Options for Retirement Saving Outcomes: Evidence from the United States
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
This paper summarizes the empirical evidence on how defaults impact retirement savings outcomes. After outlining the salient features of the various sources of retirement income in the U.S., the paper presents the empirical evidence on how defaults impact retirement... View Details
Keywords: Saving; Financial Condition; Retirement; Investment Funds; Microeconomics; Outcome or Result; Government and Politics; Financial Institutions; Macroeconomics; United States
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "The Importance of Default Options for Retirement Saving Outcomes: Evidence from the United States." In Lessons from Pension Reform in the Americas, edited by Stephen J. Kay and Tapen Sinha, 59–87. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008.
- 2011
- Article
Incentive Compensation and the Likelihood of Termination: Theory and Evidence from Real Estate Organizations
By: Christopher Parsons, G. Hallman and J. Hartzell
We analyze two managerial compensation incentive devices: the threat of termination and pay for performance. We first develop a simple model predicting that these devices are substitutes: when termination incentives are low, optimal contracts provide stronger... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Resignation and Termination; Compensation and Benefits; Real Estate Industry
Parsons, Christopher, G. Hallman, and J. Hartzell. "Incentive Compensation and the Likelihood of Termination: Theory and Evidence from Real Estate Organizations." Real Estate Economics 39, no. 3 (Fall 2011): 507–546.
- July 2002
- Case
Fresh Start? Peru's Legacy of Debt and Default (B)
By: Julio J. Rotemberg and Lisa Lewis
Supplements the (A) case. View Details
Keywords: Peru
Rotemberg, Julio J., and Lisa Lewis. "Fresh Start? Peru's Legacy of Debt and Default (B)." Harvard Business School Case 703-004, July 2002.
- June 2024
- Article
Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market
By: Wenxin Du, Salil Gadgil, Michael Gordy and Clara Vega
We investigate how market participants price and manage counterparty credit risk using confidential trade repository data on single-name credit default swap (CDS) transactions. We find that counterparty risk has a modest impact on the pricing of CDS contracts but a... View Details
Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Market Participation; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Financial Markets; Credit
Du, Wenxin, Salil Gadgil, Michael Gordy, and Clara Vega. "Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market." Management Science 70, no. 6 (June 2024): 3808–3826.