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May 2025
Case

Humana Commits to Value-Based Care

By: V.G. Narayanan, Henry Eyring and David Lane

In late 2023, CEO Bruce Broussard reviewed health insurer Humana’s transformation into a value-based care ecosystem. Under its CenterWell brand, the several millions of members in Humana Medicare Advantage plans now had access to Humana-provided primary care, home... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Business Units; Financing and Loans; Innovation Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Service Operations; Health Industry; United States

2025
Working Paper

Generative AI Use by Capital Market Information Intermediaries: Evidence from Seeking Alpha

By: Mark Bradshaw, Chenyang Ma, Benjamin Yost and Yuan Zou

We study the use of generative AI for firm-specific financial analysis on the Seeking Alpha platform. We find that, after the initial launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the share of AI-generated articles rose sharply to 13.4% of all articles, then declined in late... View Details

Keywords: Generative Ai; Seeking Alpha; Equity Research; Large Language Models; Gpt

2025
Working Paper

Balancing Engagement and Polarization: Multi-Objective Alignment of News Content Using LLMs

By: Mengjie Cheng, Elie Ofek and Hema Yoganarasimhan

We study how media firms can use LLMs to generate news content that aligns with multiple objectives—making content more engaging while maintaining a preferred level of polarization/slant consistent with the firm’s editorial policy. Using news articles from The New York... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; Content Creation; Media; Polarization; Generative Ai; Direct Preference Optimization; AI and Machine Learning; News; Perspective; Digital Marketing; Policy; Media and Broadcasting Industry

2025
Working Paper

Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution

By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco Tabellini

We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity... View Details

Keywords: Extractive Taxation; Regime Change; French Revolution; State Capacity; Taxation; History; Government Administration; Attitudes; Public Opinion

March 2025 (Revised April 2025)
Case

Perplexity: Redefining Search

By: Suraj Srinivasan, Michelle Hu, Sriraghav Srinivasan and Radhika Kak

By early 2025, Perplexity had rapidly evolved from a modest startup into a popular "answer engine" valued at $9 billion. The company had boldly positioned itself as the disruptor to Google aiming to redefine search for the AI age. Through novel AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Venture Capital; Innovation Leadership; Technological Innovation; Internet and the Web; Business Startups; Competitive Strategy; Technology Industry; United States

January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
Case

Duolingo: On a 'Streak'

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Nicole Tempest Keller and Nicole Luo

In December 2024, Severin Hacker, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Duolingo, reflected on the remarkable evolution of the language-learning app he helped launch in 2011. As the #1 most downloaded education app in the world, Duolingo had over 100 million... View Details

Keywords: Learning; AI and Machine Learning; Growth and Development Strategy; Motivation and Incentives; Diversification; Business Model; Market Entry and Exit; Technology Industry; Education Industry; United States

January 2025
Technical Note

AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix

By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart

This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details

Keywords: Reliability; Confusion Matrix; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Performance

January 2025
Teaching Note

Vytal: Packaging-as-a-Service

By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel and Stacy Straaberg

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 124-007. The Germany-based startup Vytal operated the largest digital-native reusable packaging-as-a-service network globally, having raised nearly €15 million, established a large network of restaurant partners, and prevented the use of... View Details

January 2025
Case

Redwood & Strong: The Value of a Consulting Engagement

By: David G. Fubini and Patrick Sanguineti

The board of Redwood & Strong LLP (R&S), the American branch of a large global law firm, is meeting to review the findings of a recent strategic initiative designed to identify potential merger candidates. The request for the engagement originated from Daniel Crawford,... View Details

Keywords: Client Service; Professional Service Firm; Professional Services; Consulting; Mergers and Acquisitions; Governing and Advisory Boards; Reports; Strategic Planning; Value; Consulting Industry; Legal Services Industry; United States

January–February 2025
Article

The Double-Edged Sword of Exemplar Similarity

By: Majid Majzoubi, Eric Zhao, Tiona Zuzul and Greg Fisher

We investigate how a firm’s positioning relative to category exemplars shapes security analysts’ evaluations. Using a two-stage model of evaluation (initial screening and subsequent assessment), we propose that exemplar similarity enhances a firm’s recognizability and... View Details

Keywords: Natural Language Processing; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation

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2024
Working Paper

Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models

By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang

We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Accounting; Profit; Corporate Disclosure; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics

2024
Working Paper

Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns

By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim

Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Generative Ai; Large Language Models; Climate Finance; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Environmental Sustainability; AI and Machine Learning; Investment; Financial Markets

November 2024 (Revised December 2024)
Case

Moonfare and the Democratization of Private Equity

By: Victoria Ivashina and Srimayi Mylavarapu

Founded in 2016, Moonfare headquartered in Europe, was a pioneer in the “democratization” of private equity investments. Historically, private equity was accessible only to institutional investors like pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and large family... View Details

Keywords: Private Equity; Customers; Wealth; Business Strategy; Segmentation; Technological Innovation; Product Launch; Financial Services Industry; Europe

2024
Working Paper

Catalysts for Climate Solutions: Corporate Responses to Venture Capital Financing of Climate-tech Startups

By: Shirley Lu, George Serafeim and Simon Xu

We study whether incumbent firms increase their product focus on climate solutions in response to venture capital (VC) financing of climate-tech startups. Using large language models to measure a firm's focus on climate solutions, we find that incumbents in similar... View Details

Keywords: Climate Finance; Climate Change; Technological Innovation; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Private Equity; Environmental Sustainability; Business Startups

November 2024
Article

Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs

By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano

This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details

Keywords: Econometrics; Casual Inference; Marketing; Economics; Advertising; Mathematical Methods

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October 2024
Technical Note

Prompt Engineering

By: Michael Parzen and Jo Ellery

This note covers the basics of prompt engineering, a key tool for making use of modern generative AI. We discuss the principles of prompt engineering and illustrate these principles with techniques for asking questions. We further list the types of prompts that can be... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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September–October 2024
Article

The Crowdless Future? Generative AI and Creative Problem-Solving

By: Léonard Boussioux, Jacqueline N. Lane, Miaomiao Zhang, Vladimir Jacimovic and Karim R. Lakhani

The rapid advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) open up attractive opportunities for creative problem-solving through human-guided AI partnerships. To explore this potential, we initiated a crowdsourcing challenge focused on sustainable, circular economy... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; Generative Ai; Crowdsourcing; AI and Machine Learning; Creativity; Technological Innovation

September 2024
Case

Xendit: Hiring for Growth

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Steve Castano, Quoc Anh Nguyen and Claire Wu

In 2019, Xendit, a growth-stage Southeast Asia (SEA) fintech venture based in Jakarta, was looking to hire a Head of Sales and Head of Product to lead its next phase of growth. Founded by Moses Lo and Tessa Wijaya, Xendit provided payment infrastructure, modeling... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Financing and Loans; Entrepreneurship; Jobs and Positions; Sales; Product; Growth and Development; Selection and Staffing; Organizational Culture; Expansion; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Southeast Asia; Indonesia; Philippines

2025
Working Paper

Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain

By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details

Keywords: Markups; Pricing; Price; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Cost

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