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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
This paper studies a novel, light-touch approach to aggregate judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and... View Details
Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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  • October 2021
  • Article

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs... View Details
Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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  • 27 Feb 2019
  • Working Paper Summaries

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

Keywords: by Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen; Motion Pictures & Video
  • 12 Feb 2019
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, February 12, 2019

immigrants. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54963 Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry By: Luo, Hong, Jeffrey T. Macher, and... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • 2024
  • Working Paper

Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models

By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Accounting; Profit; Corporate Disclosure; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics
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  • 16 Nov 2010
  • First Look

First Look: November 16, 2010

Francesca Gino, Lisa L. Shu, and Chia-Jung Tsay Publication:Emotion Review (forthcoming) Abstract Moral problems often prompt emotional responses that invoke intuitive judgments of right and wrong. While emotions inform View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 01 Mar 2024
  • News

In Harmony

Kim at Seoul’s government-built Hoehyeon “Citizens’ Apartments.” Opened in 1970, it stands as a reminder of a Korea from a very different era. Like so many South Koreans of a certain age, Michael ByungJu Kim (MBA 1990) lives in a country where the past lingers,... View Details
Keywords: Julia Hanna; photographs by Jun Michael Park; private equity; fiction; financial crisis; leadership; Korea
  • 01 Sep 2023
  • News

Research Brief: Making Way for Moonshots

what types of projects will succeed within their organizations, so they favor projects that are most likely to work. The study suggests several strategies. For starters, companies should have scientists help with the scoring but aggregate... View Details
Keywords: Jen McFarland Flint
  • 21 Feb 2005
  • Op-Ed

Is Business Management a Profession?

reason that the issue of trust arises is that these individuals are expected to exercise judgment—based on specialized knowledge and methods of analysis that they alone are thought to possess—in areas in which their decisions affect the well-being of others. When the... View Details
Keywords: by Rakesh Khurana, Nitin Nohria & Daniel Penrice
  • 31 Oct 2004
  • What Do You Think?

Should the Wisdom of Crowds Influence Our Thinking About Leadership?

effective, have to have three characteristics: diversity of points of view, independence from each other's opinions, and decentralization (with access to and the ability to draw on "local knowledge"). And they have to have some kind of mechanism for View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 08 Nov 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Nov. 8

Dynamics of Warmth and Competence Judgments, and Their Outcomes in Organizations Authors:Amy J.C. Cuddy, Peter Glick, and Anna Beninger Publication:Research in Organizational Behavior (forthcoming) Abstract Two traits-warmth and competence-govern social View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 11 Mar 2008
  • First Look

First Look: March 11, 2008

firm's balanced scorecard to provide useful information for detecting problems in its strategy. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-081.pdf No Harm, No Foul: The Outcome Bias in Ethical Judgments Authors:Francesca Gino,... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 20 Dec 2011
  • First Look

First Look: December 20

Nordgren, 2006), both modes of thinking have particular advantages: conscious thought can follow strict rules, whereas unconscious thought is better suited for integrating numerous decision attributes. Because most complex decisions require both adherence to precise... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 28 Jul 2016
  • Op-Ed

Where is TripAdvisor for Doctors?

85 percent of consumers make a purchase after reading such online reviews. But in the world of doctors, nothing compares in assisting consumers to make decisions that are arguably more involved emotionally and with higher financial risk. Beyond checking public records... View Details
Keywords: by John A. Quelch; Health
  • 01 Nov 2010
  • Research & Ideas

How IT Shapes Top-Down and Bottom-Up Decision Making

category," Sadun says. "The reality is that IT is a huge, heterogeneous set of technologies." Similarly, when examining issues such as organization and productivity, industry and academic studies historically tend to treat information and communication... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
  • 12 Oct 1999
  • Research & Ideas

Media Metamorphosis: Advertising in the Technology Age

rivals — including radio and television stations, magazine and newspaper publishers, billboard and direct marketing firms — that compete for bigger pieces of the advertising pie. That pie, however, which represents national advertisers' View Details
Keywords: by Peter K. Jacobs; Advertising
  • 01 Mar 2011
  • News

The Rankings Game

surveys used by Bloomberg Businessweek and U.S. News are subject to bias by relying so heavily on judgments from recent graduates, deans, and administrators. Students understand the value of graduating from a top-ranked institution and... View Details
Keywords: Roger Thompson; rankings; Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Educational Services
  • 19 Oct 2010
  • First Look

First Look: October 19, 2010

http://hbr.org/product/handbook-of-leadership-theory-and-practice/an/12326-HBK-ENG Big Five Personality Factors, Hardiness, and Social Judgment as Predictors of Leader Performance Authors:Scott Snook, Paul T. Bartone, Jarie Eid, Bjorn... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 08 Jan 2008
  • First Look

First Look: January 8, 2008

aggregate demand, the national accounts, and the balance of payments. We find that much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported non-capital goods. Some aid is invested and aid has a positive, though statistically imprecise,... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 10 Nov 2003
  • Research & Ideas

The Hard Numbers on Social Investments

million. CHI Inc. is now part of Enel Green Power, part of Enel, the world's largest publicly traded electric utility. There were positive IRR investments in the consumer goods category, Honest Tea and Zip Car being two examples, but this category of companies in View Details
Keywords: by Manda Salls