Publications

May 2012
Article

Global, Local, and Contagious Investor Sentiment

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeffrey Wurgler and Yu Yuan

We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a... View Details

Keywords: Business and Shareholder Relations; Globalization; Stocks; Markets; Capital; Financial Services Industry

2007
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Real investors and markets are too complicated to be neatly summarized by a few selected biases and trading frictions. The "top down" approach to behavioral finance focuses on the measurement of reduced form, aggregate sentiment and traces its effects to stock returns.... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Markets; Behavioral Finance; Stocks

2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

Second Quarter 2008
Article

How Does Investor Sentiment Affect the Cross-Section of Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Johnathan Wang and Jeffrey Wurgler

Broad waves of investor sentiment should have larger impacts on securities that are more difficult to value and to arbitrage. Consistent with this intuition, we find that when an index of investor sentiment takes low values, small, young, high volatility,... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment; Investment Return; Attitudes

August 2006
Article

Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

Article

eInformation: A Clinical Study of Investor Discussion and Sentiment

Keywords: Information; Internet and the Web; Investment

08 Sep 2016
Working Paper Summaries

A Model of Credit Market Sentiment

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin; Financial Services

2020
Article

Public Sentiment and the Price of Corporate Sustainability

By: George Serafeim

Combining corporate sustainability performance scores based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data with big data measuring public sentiment about a company’s sustainability performance, I find that the valuation premium paid for companies with strong... View Details

Keywords: Sustainability; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; Investment Management; Investment Strategy; Big Data; Machine Learning; Environment; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Governance; Performance; Asset Pricing; Investment; Management; Strategy; Human Capital; Public Opinion; Value; Analytics and Data Science

2016
Working Paper

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Credit; Macroeconomics

Purchase

Summer 2025
Article

Are ESG Improvements Recognized? Perspectives from the Public Sentiments

By: Shaolong Wu

While Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) increasingly guides investment management and corporate agendas nowadays, public reactions to firms' ESG performance remain under-studied. This paper fills this gap by investigating whether the public picks up firms' ESG... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Public Opinion; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Governance; Investment

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Web

Measuring Sentiment & Expectations - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

updates and corrections of the data by Mergent. Current version update: Sept 2020. Equity Market Sentiment "Sent" Baker and Wurgler developed an index of equity market sentiment that captures the common... View Details

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

We show that the secular upward shift in short-run cross-country correlations of stock and bond returns does not necessarily imply a decline in the benefits of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors. We show that this increase in correlations has... View Details

August 2004
Article

Appearing and Disappearing Dividends: The Link to Catering Incentives

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We document a close link between fluctuations in the propensity to pay dividends and catering incentives. First, we use the methodology of Fama and French (J. Finan. Econ. (2001)) to identify a total of four distinct trends in the propensity to pay dividends... View Details

Keywords: Dividends; Payout Policy; Catering; Dividend Premium; Investor Sentiment; Investment Return; Motivation and Incentives; Trends; Stocks; Financial Services Industry

07 Jul 2020
Research & Ideas

Market Investors Pay More for Resilient Companies

The steep market drop in the early days of the COVID-19 crisis is being used as a laboratory to study the importance of companies investing in stakeholder relations with their employees, suppliers, and customers, and how those investments could be strategic resources... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz; Financial Services

02 Aug 2006
Research & Ideas

Investor Protection: The Czech Experience

not just in (what is now) the Czech Republic, but also in any country that lacks strong institutions and investor protections. As HBS professor Mihir A. Desai and the Monitor Group's Alberto Moel explain in the Review of Finance, in their... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Media & Broadcasting; Entertainment & Recreation

Spring 2021
Article

Corporate Resilience and Response During COVID-19

By: Alex Cheema-Fox, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang

The coronavirus pandemic caused a sharp market decline while raising heterogeneous responses across companies related to their employees, supply chain, and repurposing of operations to provide needed products and services. We study whether during the 2020 COVID-19... View Details

24 Jun 2019
News

The formula for telling sustainability stories that stick

2011
Working Paper

Why Fears about Municipal Credit Are Overblown

Highly publicized predictions of 50-100 municipal defaults have caused anxiety among municipal bond investors. While there is some chance that negative investor sentiment will lead to further spread widening, the probability of the kind of widespread default that would... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Bonds; Investment Return; City

2023
Working Paper

Segmented Going-Public Markets and the Demand for SPACs

By: Angela Ma, Miles Zheng and Jessica Bai

We provide a regulatory-arbitrage-based explanation for the origin and proliferation of the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). SPAC sponsors act as non-bank intermediaries, and the SPAC market structure appeals to yield-seeking investors and riskier,... View Details

Keywords: Special Purpose Acquisition Companies; Non-bank Intermediaries; Regulatory Arbitrage; Adverse Selection; Initial Public Offering