Publications

12 Mar 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

2009
Working Paper

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

2023
Working Paper

Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes

By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter

We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

SSRN

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

SSRN

April 1989 (Revised September 1989)
Case

CIBA-GEIGY AG: Impact of Inflation and Currency Fluctuations

By: Hugo Uyterhoeven

The chairman of the second-largest Swiss multinational company is preparing for a board discussion on the impact of a constantly strengthening Swiss franc. The case raises strategic issues in terms of international competitiveness, financial reporting issues of how to... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Currency; Financial Management; Multinational Firms and Management; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; Switzerland

Other Unpublished Work

Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain

By: Lucy White and Hans-Joachim Voth

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Wages; Labor and Management Relations; Negotiation

18 Oct 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

January 2010 (Revised October 2010)
Case

Colombia: Strong Fundamentals, Global Risk

By: Aldo Musacchio, Richard H. K. Vietor, Jonathan Schlefer and Carolina Camacho

By mid-2009 Colombian President Alvaro Uribe had ended decades of virtual civil war and strengthened the business climate, but he faced tough economic challenges. Though he had instituted prominent market reforms and brought inflation down sharply, Colombia seemed... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Macroeconomics; Trade; Global Strategy; Infrastructure; Business and Government Relations; Colombia

07 Feb 2023
Research & Ideas

Supervisor of Sandwiches? More Companies Inflate Titles to Avoid Extra Pay

the study estimates. Cohen’s study emerges as record inflation and chronic staffing shortages collide making compensation a top challenge in human resources. While the trend is most heavily concentrated in lower-paying sectors like... View Details

Keywords: by Scott Van Voorhis

27 May 2011
Working Paper Summaries

An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds

Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

January 2004 (Revised June 2004)
Case

Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Debt Securities; Risk Management; Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Capital Markets; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Innovation and Invention; United States

September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
Case

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details

11 Sep 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Keywords: by Luis M. Viceira

16 Jun 2008
Research & Ideas

Seven Tips for Managing Price Increases

yourself paying more attention to the prices of everything you buy? You are not alone. Consumers everywhere are more price aware. People who've been indifferent to price increases for years are suddenly amazed at what things now cost. How can marketers cope not just... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch

07 Oct 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

Keywords: by Wenxin Du, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger

January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

December 2020
Article

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

By: Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger

We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Currency; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty