Publications

May–June 2018
Article

Data Uncertainty in Markov Chains: Application to Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Medical Innovations

By: Joel Goh, Mohsen Bayati, Stefanos A. Zenios, Sundeep Singh and David Moore

Cost-effectiveness studies of medical innovations often suffer from data inadequacy. When Markov chains are used as a modeling framework for such studies, this data inadequacy can manifest itself as imprecision in the elements of the transition matrix. In this paper,... View Details

Keywords: Markov Chains; Cost Effectiveness; Medical Innovations; Colorectal Cancer; Health Care and Treatment; Cost vs Benefits; Innovation and Invention; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

January–February 2018
Article

Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye

By: Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Bruce G.S. Hardie

We investigate the increasingly common business setting in which companies face the possibility of both observed and unobserved customer attrition (i.e., “overt” and “silent” churn) in the same pool of customers. This is the case for many online-based services where... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Retention; Attrition; Customer Base Analysis; Hidden Markov Models; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior

2013
Working Paper

Where do the Most Active Customers Originate and How Can Firms Keep Them Engaged?

By: Clarence Lee, E. Ofek and Thomas Steenburgh

In this paper, we study how firms offering Web services can acquire and develop an active customer base. We focus on two basic questions. First, how does the method of customer acquisition affect the way customers use the service to meet their own needs and to interact... View Details

Keywords: Customer Engagement; Adoption Routes; Hidden Markov Models; Search; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Media; Customer Relationship Management; Internet and the Web; Mathematical Methods; Consumer Behavior; Entrepreneurship; Marketing Reference Programs; Web Services Industry

2015
Chapter

Optimal Process Control of Symbolic Transfer Functions

By: Christopher Griffin and Elisabeth Paulson

Transfer function modeling is a standard technique in classical Linear Time Invariant and Statistical Process Control. The work of Box and Jenkins was seminal in developing methods for identifying parameters associated with classical (r, s, k) transfer functions.... View Details

Keywords: Transfer Functions; Markov Processes; Stochastic Models; Process Control; Research; Information Technology

13 Feb 2006
Research & Ideas

The Hidden Market for Babies

area of scientific inquiry, but also one that has been mired thus far in political controversy. I want to look at how different countries are dealing with this science and what kinds of regulatory regimes they are establishing around it. And I eventually want to figure... View Details

Keywords: by Manda Salls; Biotechnology; Health; Technology

27 Feb 2019
Research & Ideas

The Hidden Cost of a Product Recall

American emissions tests. Volkswagen estimated that fines, repairs, and legal costs would total more than $30 billion. And worse, the company ceded its command of America’s diesel car market—producing more than one-third of the models... View Details

Keywords: by Danielle Kost; Manufacturing; Consumer Products; Auto; Medical Devices & Supplies

October 2014
Article

Hidden Structure: Using Network Methods to Map System Architecture

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and John Rusnak

In this paper, we describe an operational methodology for characterizing the architecture of complex technical systems and demonstrate its application to a large sample of software releases. Our methodology is based upon directed network graphs, which allows us to... View Details

Keywords: Architecture; Modularity; Dominant Designs; Complexity; Product Design; Software

2014
Working Paper

Hidden Structure: Using Network Methods to Map System Architecture

By: Carliss Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and John Rusnak

In this paper, we describe an operational methodology for characterising the architecture of complex technical systems and demonstrate its application to a large sample of software releases. Our methodology is based upon directed network graphs, which allows us to... View Details

Keywords: Complexity; Applications and Software; Product Design

SSRN

2010
Working Paper

Beyond Agency Theory: The Hidden and Heretofore Inaccessible Power of Integrity (PDF file of Keynote Slides)

By: Michael C. Jensen and Werner Erhard

There is far too much concern today about the conflicts of interest between people; for example, conflicts of interest between agents and owners—historically a favorite topic of Jensen—and not enough attention paid to the damage caused by an individual's conflict of... View Details

Keywords: Moral Sensibility; Lawfulness; Production; Organizations; Performance Improvement; Agency Theory; Conflict of Interests; Trust; Competitive Advantage; Value Creation

2010
Working Paper

Integrity: A Positive Model That Incorporates the Normative Phenomena of Morality, Ethics, and Legality Abridged

By: Werner H. Erhard, Michael C. Jensen and Steve Zaffron

We present a positive model of integrity that, as we distinguish and define integrity, provides powerful access to increased performance for individuals, groups, organizations, and societies. Our model reveals the causal link between integrity and increased... View Details

Keywords: Trust; Performance Productivity; Information Technology; Knowledge; Moral Sensibility; Opportunities; Competitive Advantage; Legal Liability; Cost vs Benefits

SSRN

March 2019
Article

A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests

By: Shunyuan Zhang, Param Singh and Anindya Ghose

We investigate the long-term impact of competing against superstars in crowdsourcing contests. Using a unique 50-month longitudinal panel data set on 1677 software design crowdsourcing contests, we illustrate a learning effect where participants are able to improve... View Details

Keywords: Crowdsourcing Contests; Superstar Effect; Bayesian Learning; Utility; Economics Of Information System; Dynamic Structural Model; Dynamic Programming; Markov Chain; Monte Carlo; Learning; Competition; Performance Improvement

12 May 2021
Book

The Hard Truth About Being a CEO

Fubini, a senior lecturer in the Organizational Behavior Unit at Harvard Business School, poured that knowledge, along with a list of lessons learned from researching leaders past and present into the book Hidden Truths: What Leaders Need... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

September 2016
Article

History-based versus Uniform Pricing in Growing and Declining Markets

By: Oz Shy, Rune Stenbacka and David Hao Zhang

We analyze the Markov Perfect Equilibria of an infinite-horizon overlapping generations model with consumer lock-in to compare the performance of history-based and uniform pricing in growing and declining markets. Under history-based pricing, firms charge higher prices... View Details

Keywords: History-based Pricing; Introductory Discount; Uniform Pricing; Consumer Lock-in; High Switching Costs; Demand and Consumers; Competition; Price; Market Entry and Exit; Product Marketing

Purchase

02 Mar 2009
Research & Ideas

When Goal Setting Goes Bad

goals, but we recommend doing so with caution, and our paper discusses the needed steps to take (e.g., strong leaders who model appropriate behavior, oversight to prevent unethical behavior, etc.). Q: One of the most famous stretch goals... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

29 Aug 2024
Research & Ideas

Shoot for the Stars: What to Know About the Space Economy

rapidly changing. Harvard Business School Senior Associate Dean Matthew Weinzierl’s new research explores the business opportunities hidden among the stars, particularly in data from and through space, but also in tourism, manufacturing,... View Details

Keywords: by Kara Baskin; Aerospace

June 2018
Article

Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged

By: Clarence Lee, Elie Ofek and Thomas Steenburgh

We study how digital service firms can develop an active customer base, focusing on two questions. First, how does the way that customers use the service postadoption to meet their own needs (personal usage) and to interact with one another (social usage) vary across... View Details

Keywords: Customer Engagement; Adoption Routes; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Marketing; Bayesian Estimation; Customers; Communication; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Internet and the Web; Analytics and Data Science

23 Mar 2015
Research & Ideas

It’s Called ‘Price Coherence,’ and It’s Surprisingly Bad for Consumers

responses to the impractical aspects of price coherence. "Our first price coherence paper develops a theory model showing what happens in affected markets," Edelman says. "Our companion paper, Markets with Price Coherence, explores the... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Air Transportation; Food & Beverage; Entertainment & Recreation

Learning to Successfully Hire in Online Labor Markets

Hiring in online labor markets involves considerable uncertainty: which hiring choices are more likely to yield successful outcomes and how do employers adjust their hiring behaviors to make such choices? We argue that employers will initially explore the value... View Details

March 2023
Article

Learning to Successfully Hire in Online Labor Markets

By: Marios Kokkodis and Sam Ransbotham

Hiring in online labor markets involves considerable uncertainty: which hiring choices are more likely to yield successful outcomes and how do employers adjust their hiring behaviors to make such choices? We argue that employers will initially explore the value of... View Details

Keywords: Selection and Staffing; Analysis; Decision Choices and Conditions