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    • All HBS Web  (148)
      • Faculty Publications  (14)

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      • April 2023
      • Article

      The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation

      By: Ethan Rouen and Matthias Regier
      We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between... View Details
      Keywords: Intangibles; Valuation; Human Capital; Investment Return
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      Rouen, Ethan, and Matthias Regier. "The Stock Market Valuation of Human Capital Creation." Art. 102384. Journal of Corporate Finance 79 (April 2023).
      • October–December 2022
      • Article

      Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

      By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
      Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
      • April 12, 2022
      • Article

      Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

      By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.
      Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships
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      Cramer, Estee Y., Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li, and et al. "Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States." e2113561119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 15 (April 12, 2022). (See full author list here.)
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • June 2021
      • Article

      From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng
      The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg, and Cynthia Zeng. "From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19." Health Care Management Science 24, no. 2 (June 2021): 253–272.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

      By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen
      We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged... View Details
      Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation
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      Regier, Matthias, and Ethan Rouen. "The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-047, October 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • October 2018
      • Article

      The Operational Value of Social Media Information

      By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang
      While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Information; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Media
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      Cui, Ruomeng, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno, and Dennis J. Zhang. "The Operational Value of Social Media Information." Special Issue on Big Data in Supply Chain Management. Production and Operations Management 27, no. 10 (October 2018): 1749–1774.
      • June 2018
      • Case

      Forta Furniture: International Expansion

      By: John A. Quelch and Karthik Easwar
      The Forta Furniture case highlights the need to consider new market expansion to grow a firm. It demonstrates that simply doing what has always been done is not sustainable when other competitors enter the market with differentiated or potentially superior offerings.... View Details
      Keywords: Market Entry and Exit; Global Range; Decision Making; Analysis; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Expansion
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      Quelch, John A., and Karthik Easwar. "Forta Furniture: International Expansion." Harvard Business School Brief Case 918-547, June 2018.
      • June 2015
      • Supplement

      Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Scott Mayfield
      This case analyzes IBM's financial performance and its capital allocation decisions over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, during which IBM returned more than $140B to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During this time, CEO Sam... View Details
      Keywords: Dividends; Share Repurchases; Earnings Guidance; Financial Statement Analysis; Financial Ratios; Payout Policy; Earnings Per Share (EPS); Earnings Management; Change Management; Leadership; Transformation; Financial Strategy
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Scott Mayfield. "Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 215-711, June 2015.
      • July 2014 (Revised May 2015)
      • Case

      Making Room for the Baby Boom: Senior Living

      By: Charles F. Wu, Joseph Beyer and Arthur I. Segel
      Tom Alperin's National Development has purchased a building site in affluent Wellesley, MA, and is in the process of deciding whether to build apartments, a combination of independent living and assisted living units for seniors, or perhaps even higher acuity... View Details
      Keywords: Senior Living; Assisted Living; Independent Living; Property; Finance; Real Estate Industry; Boston; Massachusetts; United States
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      Wu, Charles F., and Joseph Beyer. "Making Room for the Baby Boom: Senior Living." Harvard Business School Case 215-003, July 2014. (Revised May 2015.)
      • June 2012
      • Article

      Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details
      Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2, no. 1 (June 2012): 57–87.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      The Paradox of Samsung's Rise

      By: Tarun Khanna, Jaeyong Song and Kyungmook Lee
      Twenty years ago, few people would have predicted that Samsung could transform itself from a low-cost original equipment manufacturer to a world leader in R&D, marketing, and design, with a brand more valuable than Pepsi, Nike, or American Express. Fewer still would... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Design; Research and Development; Marketing; Business Processes; Brands and Branding; System; Globalized Markets and Industries; Transformation; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Production; Quality; China; India; Turkey
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      Khanna, Tarun, Jaeyong Song, and Kyungmook Lee. "The Paradox of Samsung's Rise." Harvard Business Review 89, nos. 7-8 (July–August 2011): 142–147.
      • February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
      • Background Note

      Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann
      Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Network Effects; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R. "Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets." Harvard Business School Background Note 806-131, February 2006. (Revised September 2007.)
      • February 2003 (Revised October 2003)
      • Case

      Cable Data Systems

      By: Paul W. Marshall and Todd H Thedinga
      Describes the operating challenges of Cable Data Systems (CDS), a minority-owned cable installation company with a dual mission of maximizing profits and providing employment opportunities to minorities in urban markets. Following the merger of two cable installation... View Details
      Keywords: Selection and Staffing; Employment; Forecasting and Prediction; Urban Scope; Cost Management; Infrastructure; Labor Unions; Demand and Consumers; Demographics; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Telecommunications Industry; Boston
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      Marshall, Paul W., and Todd H Thedinga. "Cable Data Systems." Harvard Business School Case 803-132, February 2003. (Revised October 2003.)
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