Filter Results:
(76)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (85)
- Faculty Publications (28)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (85)
- Faculty Publications (28)
Page 1 of 76
Results →
Sort by
- Article
Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts
By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details
Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement
Merkley, Kenneth, Roni Michaely, and Joseph Pacelli. "Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 70, no. 1 (August 2020).
- 2019
- Working Paper
The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets
By: Achal Bassamboo, Ruomeng Cui and Antonio Moreno
Prediction is an important activity in various business processes, but it becomes difficult when historical information is not available, such as forecasting demand of a new product. One approach that can be applied in such situations is to crowdsource opinions from... View Details
Keywords: Wisdom Of Crowds; Demand Forecasting; Price Forecasting; Forecasting and Prediction; Social and Collaborative Networks; Size; Performance
Bassamboo, Achal, Ruomeng Cui, and Antonio Moreno. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Operations: Forecasting Using Prediction Markets." Working Paper, 2019.
- Article
Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose and R.L. Winkler
From forecasting competitions to conditional value-at-risk requirements, the use of multiple quantile assessments is growing in practice. To evaluate them, we use a rule from the general class of proper scoring rules for a forecaster’s multiple quantiles of a single... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose, and R.L. Winkler. "Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs." Operations Research 65, no. 3 (May–June 2017): 712–728.
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- 07 Jan 2019
- Research & Ideas
The Better Way to Forecast the Future
Whether it’s booking a hotel, renting a movie, or buying a car, many of us consult multiple reviews before deciding. It’s called aggregating opinions, and we do it without even thinking about it. Crowdsourcing works so well, in fact, says... View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler. "Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-041, October 2018.
- 09 Jun 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
- 27 Feb 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry
- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions
By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details
Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022. (R&R Management Science.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- October 2000
- Article
The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details
Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 55, no. 5 (October 2000): 2219–57.
- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- 2014
- Article
The Promise of Prediction Contests
By: Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
This article examines the prediction contest as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we focus on... View Details
Pfeifer, Phillip E., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "The Promise of Prediction Contests." American Statistician 68, no. 4 (2014): 264–270.
- June 2013
- Article
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2012
- Working Paper
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-065, January 2011. (Revised September 2012, Internet Appendix Here.)
- February 1982 (Revised August 1985)
- Case
U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)
Set in mid-1978, this case covers all aspects of the U.S. retail coffee market both cross-sectionally and historically. The market is recovering from dramatic price rises and volume drops. The overall issue is the forecast of future market evolution and the... View Details
Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Industry Growth; Market Timing; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
Yip, George S., and Jeffrey R Williams. "U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)." Harvard Business School Case 582-087, February 1982. (Revised August 1985.)
- Research Summary
Current Research
I am interested in research on various topics in retail operations and supply chain management, including inventory management, product variety, distribution logistics, financial performance of retailers, and linking operational performance to... View Details
- October 2019 (Revised August 2020)
- Case
Souqalmal: The Choice Is Yours (A)
By: V.G. Narayanan and Alpana Thapar
This case describes how Ambareen Musa, Founder and CEO of Souqalmal, a Dubai-based online comparison aggregator of banking and insurance products launched her business in 2011 and rapidly grew it over next couple of years. However, by 2017, the Mauritian entrepreneur... View Details
Keywords: Unit Economics; Finance; Accounting; Competitive Strategy; Financial Statements; Insurance Industry; Middle East
Narayanan, V.G., and Alpana Thapar. "Souqalmal: The Choice Is Yours (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-028, October 2019. (Revised August 2020.)