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- July 2025
- Teaching Note
Silicon Valley Bank: Gone in 36 Hours
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 125-094. View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James D. Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
- June 2025
- Technical Note
Fair Value Accounting for Debt Securities and Loan Assets
- June 2025
- Case
TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz
On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Assets; Asset Management; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Markets; Equity; Financial Liquidity; Financial Instruments; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Governing and Advisory Boards; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Investment; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London; Europe
- 2025
- Working Paper
Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
- June 2025
- Article
Passive Ownership and Price Informativeness
By: Marco Sammon
I show that passive ownership negatively affects the degree to which stock prices anticipate earnings announcements. Estimates across several research designs imply that the rise in passive ownership over the last 30 years has caused the amount of information... View Details
Keywords: Passive Ownership; ETFs; Market Efficiency; Price; Investment Funds; Stocks; Communication
- 2025
- Working Paper
Data-driven Technologies and Local Information Advantages in Small Business Lending
By: Wilbur Chen, Jung Koo Kang and Aditya Mohan
We investigate whether banks' adoption of data-driven technologies influences competitive dynamics in local small business lending by diminishing the information advantages traditionally held by local banks. Using local newspaper closures as an adverse shock to the... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Disappearing Index Effect
By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average
of 7.4% in the 1990s to 0.3% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the
share of stock market assets linked to the index. A similar... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- March 2025
- Case
Silicon Valley Bank: Gone in 36 Hours
This case examines factors contributing to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, an event as unpredicted as it was quick. SVB funded nearly half of all U.S. venture-backed startups and at the end of 2022 held $173 billion in deposits, largely... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Standards; Bank Runs; Financial Accounting; Financial Reporting; Social Media; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Investment Portfolio; Interest Rates; Debt Securities; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Statements; Risk Management; Failure; Fair Value Accounting; Credit; Corporate Governance; Financial Services Industry; Financial Services Industry; United States
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending
By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
- February 2025 (Revised May 2025)
- Case
Align Partners and SM Entertainment: Korean Shareholder Activism Meets K-Pop (A)
By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Billy Chan
For years, institutional investors had experienced very limited success in influencing the management of listed companies through shareholder activist campaigns in Korea. The common practice of circular ownership and public resentment toward foreign shareholder... View Details
- February 2025
- Supplement
Align Partners and SM Entertainment: Korean Shareholder Activism Meets K-Pop (B)
By: Charles CY Wang and Billy Chan
Supplements the (A) case, HBS No. 125-065. For years, institutional investors had experienced very limited success in influencing the management of listed companies through shareholder activist campaigns in Korea. The common practice of circular ownership and public... View Details
- February 2025
- Case
Ingersoll Rand: Broadening Employee Ownership
By: Ethan Rouen and Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago
Set in 2024, this case examines how Ingersoll Rand—a global leader in air, liquid, and gas handling technologies—approached broadening employee ownership. The company granted restricted stock units (RSUs) to all employees on their one-year anniversary, reinforcing a... View Details
- January 2025 (Revised March 2025)
- Case
Gavi and the 'Next' Pandemic
By: Tarun Khanna and Kerry Herman
In 2025, CEO Dr. Sania Nishtar and her team consider the lessons the Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunizations (GAVI) learned from the pandemic. GAVI successfully brought COVID-19 vaccines to large swaths of the undeveloped and under-developed world by pooling... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
Negotiating a Legacy at Sustainable Harvest (A)
By: Jillian Jordan, Julian Zlatev, Alicia Dadlani and Martha Hostetter
The specialty coffee importer Sustainable Harvest was the first certified B Corp in the coffee industry due to its investments in building coffee farmers’ capacity and livelihood. But in 2022, after coffee prices plummeted and the company’s bank declined to extend its... View Details
Keywords: Negotiation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Trust; Ethics; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Volatility; Futures and Commodity Futures; Social Enterprise; Valuation; Business Model; Credit; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Europe
- January 2025
- Supplement
Negotiating a Legacy at Sustainable Harvest (B)
By: Jillian Jordan, Julian Zlatev, Alicia Dadlani and Martha Hostetter
The specialty coffee importer Sustainable Harvest was the first certified B Corp in the coffee industry due to its investments in building coffee farmers’ capacity and livelihood. But in 2022, after coffee prices plummeted and the company’s bank declined to extend its... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Real Effects of Bankruptcy Forum Shopping
By: Samuel Antill and Aymeric Bellon
Many non-Delaware firms strategically file for bankruptcy in Delaware. Should this "forum shopping" be allowed? This question has motivated six congressional bill proposals over decades of policy debate. Using a novel natural experiment and Census-Bureau microdata, we... View Details