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- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- 27 Sep 2010
- Research & Ideas
Customer Experts Lose Influence When Teams are Pressured
team (project manager) As performance pressure mounts, teams are considerably more likely to follow general experts and disregard customer-specific experts even to the point of totally ignoring important... View Details
Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert
- 07 Jun 2021
- Book
9 Tips from an Expert Fundraiser: Help Donors 'Invest in Their Passion'
nuanced in these situations, because the donor calls are often done by a combined trustee/donor and a professional working as a team. "Your job is not that of a beggar, but rather that of an educator of donors and an expander of... View Details
Keywords: by Danielle Kost
- 2018
- Working Paper
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future
By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Winkler, Robert L., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Victor Richmond R. Jose. "Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-039, October 2018.
- 02 Apr 2024
- What Do You Think?
What's Enough to Make Us Happy?
enough. It depended on how their colleagues were behaving, probably with equally little thought about “enough.” HBS colleague and happiness expert Arthur Brooks refers to this as “the striver’s curse” and notes that “there is no... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- December 2020 (Revised April 2021)
- Case
IBM Watson at MD Anderson Cancer Center
By: Shane Greenstein, Mel Martin and Sarkis Agaian
After discovering that their cancer diagnostic tool, designed to leverage the cloud computing power of IBM Watson, needed greater integration into the clinical processes at the MD Anderson Cancer Center, the development team had difficult choices to make. The Oncology... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Innovation Strategy; Knowledge Management; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Operations; Failure; Information Technology; Applications and Software; Health Care and Treatment; Product Development; Health Industry; Information Technology Industry; Technology Industry; United States; Houston; Texas
Greenstein, Shane, Mel Martin, and Sarkis Agaian. "IBM Watson at MD Anderson Cancer Center." Harvard Business School Case 621-022, December 2020. (Revised April 2021.)
- 20 Sep 2017
- Research & Ideas
The Three Types of Leaders Who Create Radical Change
combination of communicating, organizing, and evaluating. Agitators need to communicate the necessity of the social change movement; innovators need to communicate the validity of their proposed solution; and orchestrators must be able to... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
- June 30, 2020
- Article
Bipartisan Tax-Free Solution to Health Care Financing: Coupling HRAs With a Public Option
By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Richard Boxer and James Wallace
A combination of health insurance initiatives by the presumptive 2020 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees could expand health care coverage and significantly reduce costs, without raising taxes. Along the way, the combination could revitalize private... View Details
Keywords: Health Care Financing; Public Option; Health Reimbursement Arrangement (HRA); Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Cost Management
Herzlinger, Regina E., Richard Boxer, and James Wallace. "Bipartisan Tax-Free Solution to Health Care Financing: Coupling HRAs With a Public Option." Health Affairs Blog (June 30, 2020).
- 2018
- Working Paper
Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler. "Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-041, October 2018.
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- 2013
- Chapter
FollowMe.IntDev.Com: International Development in the Blogosphere
By: Ryann Manning
This chapter explores online blogs as a new forum for discussing ideas and practices in international development. Based on a qualitative study of conversations that take place across multiple blogs, I conclude that the blogosphere combines features of a public sphere,... View Details
Keywords: International Development; Blogging; Social Media; Public Sphere; Blogs; Equality and Inequality; Globalization; Social and Collaborative Networks; Developing Countries and Economies
Manning, Ryann. "FollowMe.IntDev.Com: International Development in the Blogosphere." Chap. 12 in Popular Representations of Development: Insights from Novels, Films, Television and Social Media, edited by David Lewis, Dennis Rodgers, and Michael Woolcock. New York: Routledge, 2013.
- 2012
- Working Paper
FollowMe.IntDev.Com: International Development in the Blogosphere
By: Ryann Manning
This article explores online blogs as a new forum for discussing ideas and practices in international development. Based on a qualitative study of conversations that take place across multiple blogs, I conclude that the blogosphere combines features of a public sphere,... View Details
Keywords: Development Economics; Interpersonal Communication; Knowledge Acquisition; Experience and Expertise; Globalization; Blogs
Manning, Ryann. "FollowMe.IntDev.Com: International Development in the Blogosphere." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-084, March 2012.
- 16 Feb 2010
- Research & Ideas
The Outside-In Approach to Customer Service
inside-out perspective become attached to what they produce and sell and to their own organizations. In contrast, the outside-in perspective starts with the marketplace and delves deeply into the problems and questions customers are facing in their lives. It then looks... View Details
- 15 Jan 2014
- Research & Ideas
Managing the Family Business: It Takes a Village
needed for major programs or decisions to be approved. There were continuous conversations among the owners and family about important issues and these drove out consensus. Consensus never required unanimity but rather the feeling that the deliberation process was... View Details
- 15 Mar 2011
- First Look
First Look: March 15
examine the organizational transformation of risk experts in two large U.K. banks, where we study the dynamics of the risk management function over a period of five years. Our findings indicate that the rising influence of a staff... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 08 May 2020
- In Practice
Nonprofits Hurt by COVID-19 Must Hoard Cash to Hold On
often support underserved communities and regions that at this time need the most support. Adopting an Agile response, with a leadership model that provides a focused set of actions combined with an operating system that iteratively is... View Details
Keywords: by Danielle Kost
- 16 Mar 2009
- Research & Ideas
When the Internet Runs Out of IP Addresses
The Internet is running out of room. Experts predict that in two or three years we will run out of Web addresses, so-called IP addresses, that can be assigned to new Internet-based sites and services. Each site is assigned a unique number... View Details
- 09 Feb 2018
- Research & Ideas
Big Hits: The Best of the 2018 Super Bowl Ads
experts to weigh in on 2018’s top spots. Jill Avery Senior Lecturer of Business Administration 2017 was a somber and contentious year for the United States. So it came as no surprise on Super Bowl Sunday to see marketers compile a... View Details
- 14 Oct 2013
- Research & Ideas
Time that Government Reopens for Business
doesn't increase its debt limit on October 17, it will start defaulting on its bills—an unprecedented event in the nation's history. Senior Lecturer Joseph B. Fuller, a member of the School's Entrepreneurial Management Unit and an expert... View Details
Keywords: by Jim Aisner
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Narrative AI Advantage? A Field Experiment on Generative AI-Augmented Evaluations of Early-Stage Innovations
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang
The rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative problem-solving, necessitating new approaches for evaluating innovative solutions. This study explores how human-AI collaboration can enhance early-stage evaluations, focusing on the interplay... View Details
Lane, Jacqueline N., Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh, and Pei-Hsin Wang. "The Narrative AI Advantage? A Field Experiment on Generative AI-Augmented Evaluations of Early-Stage Innovations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-001, August 2024. (Revised August 2024.)