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  • Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Related
  • 27 Sep 2010
  • Research & Ideas

Customer Experts Lose Influence When Teams are Pressured

team (project manager) As performance pressure mounts, teams are considerably more likely to follow general experts and disregard customer-specific experts even to the point of totally ignoring important... View Details
Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert
  • 07 Jun 2021
  • Book

9 Tips from an Expert Fundraiser: Help Donors 'Invest in Their Passion'

nuanced in these situations, because the donor calls are often done by a combined trustee/donor and a professional working as a team. "Your job is not that of a beggar, but rather that of an educator of donors and an expander of... View Details
Keywords: by Danielle Kost
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future

By: Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Victor Richmond R. Jose
The use and aggregation of probability forecasts in practice is on the rise. In this position piece, we explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts in decision-making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist.... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecast; Forecast Combination; Forecast Evaluation; Decision Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Analysis
Related
  • 02 Apr 2024
  • What Do You Think?

What's Enough to Make Us Happy?

enough. It depended on how their colleagues were behaving, probably with equally little thought about “enough.” HBS colleague and happiness expert Arthur Brooks refers to this as “the striver’s curse” and notes that “there is no... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • December 2020 (Revised April 2021)
  • Case

IBM Watson at MD Anderson Cancer Center

By: Shane Greenstein, Mel Martin and Sarkis Agaian
After discovering that their cancer diagnostic tool, designed to leverage the cloud computing power of IBM Watson, needed greater integration into the clinical processes at the MD Anderson Cancer Center, the development team had difficult choices to make. The Oncology... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Innovation Strategy; Knowledge Management; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Operations; Failure; Information Technology; Applications and Software; Health Care and Treatment; Product Development; Health Industry; Information Technology Industry; Technology Industry; United States; Houston; Texas
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  • 20 Sep 2017
  • Research & Ideas

The Three Types of Leaders Who Create Radical Change

combination of communicating, organizing, and evaluating. Agitators need to communicate the necessity of the social change movement; innovators need to communicate the validity of their proposed solution; and orchestrators must be able to... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
  • June 30, 2020
  • Article

Bipartisan Tax-Free Solution to Health Care Financing: Coupling HRAs With a Public Option

By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Richard Boxer and James Wallace
A combination of health insurance initiatives by the presumptive 2020 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees could expand health care coverage and significantly reduce costs, without raising taxes. Along the way, the combination could revitalize private... View Details
Keywords: Health Care Financing; Public Option; Health Reimbursement Arrangement (HRA); Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Cost Management
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
Related
  • 2013
  • Chapter

FollowMe.IntDev.Com: International Development in the Blogosphere

By: Ryann Manning
This chapter explores online blogs as a new forum for discussing ideas and practices in international development. Based on a qualitative study of conversations that take place across multiple blogs, I conclude that the blogosphere combines features of a public sphere,... View Details
Keywords: International Development; Blogging; Social Media; Public Sphere; Blogs; Equality and Inequality; Globalization; Social and Collaborative Networks; Developing Countries and Economies
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  • Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets
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  • 16 Feb 2010
  • Research & Ideas

The Outside-In Approach to Customer Service

inside-out perspective become attached to what they produce and sell and to their own organizations. In contrast, the outside-in perspective starts with the marketplace and delves deeply into the problems and questions customers are facing in their lives. It then looks... View Details
Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert; Consumer Products
  • 2012
  • Working Paper

FollowMe.IntDev.Com: International Development in the Blogosphere

By: Ryann Manning
This article explores online blogs as a new forum for discussing ideas and practices in international development. Based on a qualitative study of conversations that take place across multiple blogs, I conclude that the blogosphere combines features of a public sphere,... View Details
Keywords: Development Economics; Interpersonal Communication; Knowledge Acquisition; Experience and Expertise; Globalization; Blogs
Related
  • 15 Jan 2014
  • Research & Ideas

Managing the Family Business: It Takes a Village

needed for major programs or decisions to be approved. There were continuous conversations among the owners and family about important issues and these drove out consensus. Consensus never required unanimity but rather the feeling that the deliberation process was... View Details
  • 2025
  • Working Paper

Greenlighting Innovative Projects: How Evaluation Format Shapes the Perceived Feasibility of Early-Stage Ideas

By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Simon Friis, Tianxi Cai, Michael Menietti, Griffin Weber and Eva C. Guinan
The evaluation of innovative early-stage projects is essential for allocating limited resources. We investigate how the evaluation format affects the identification of feasibility issues through a field experiment at a leading research university. Experts were... View Details
Keywords: Innovation Evaluation; Evaluation Criteria; Feasibility Assessment; Attention Allocation; Cognitive Mechanisms; Field Experiment; Research; Performance Evaluation; Innovation and Invention; Prejudice and Bias
Related
  • 09 Feb 2018
  • Research & Ideas

Big Hits: The Best of the 2018 Super Bowl Ads

experts to weigh in on 2018’s top spots.   Jill Avery Senior Lecturer of Business Administration 2017 was a somber and contentious year for the United States. So it came as no surprise on Super Bowl Sunday to see marketers compile a... View Details
Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty; Telecommunications
  • 21 May 2020
  • Research & Ideas

Fighting the COVID Blues: Advice from Business Research

and financial distress—a mentally toxic combination for many. In fact, almost half of adults in the United States, 45 percent, say that worry and stress related to the coronavirus and the resulting economic downturn are hurting their... View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman and Danielle Kost
  • 14 Oct 2013
  • Research & Ideas

Time that Government Reopens for Business

doesn't increase its debt limit on October 17, it will start defaulting on its bills—an unprecedented event in the nation's history. Senior Lecturer Joseph B. Fuller, a member of the School's Entrepreneurial Management Unit and an expert... View Details
Keywords: by Jim Aisner
  • 01 May 2020
  • In Practice

COVID-19’s Hard Lessons Might Prepare Business for Climate Change

The coronavirus pandemic caught the business world by surprise, but the catastrophe might force companies to face a crisis that has been unfolding in plain sight: climate change.  We asked faculty members affiliated with the Business and Environment Initiative at... View Details
Keywords: by Danielle Kost
  • 08 May 2020
  • In Practice

Nonprofits Hurt by COVID-19 Must Hoard Cash to Hold On

often support underserved communities and regions that at this time need the most support. Adopting an Agile response, with a leadership model that provides a focused set of actions combined with an operating system that iteratively is... View Details
Keywords: by Danielle Kost

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