Expectations-based Reference Points - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2022
Working Paper

Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points

By: Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg and Charles Sprenger

Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes, and explores its implications for identifying models of the reference point. In two experimental settings we measure gain-loss... View Details

Keywords: Reference-dependent Preferences; Rational Expectations; Personal Equilibrium; Endowment Effect; Expectations-based Reference Points

Article

Performance Effects of Setting a High Reference Point for Peer‐Performance Comparison

By: Henry Eyring and V.G. Narayanan

We conduct a field experiment, based on a registered report accepted by the Journal of Accounting Research, to test performance effects of setting a high reference point for peer‐performance comparison. Relative to providing the median as a reference point for... View Details

Keywords: Relative Performance Evaluation; Reference Points; Social Comparison; Field Experiment; Performance; Performance Evaluation; Education

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January 2019
Article

Wage Elasticities in Working and Volunteering: The Role of Reference Points in a Laboratory Study

By: Christine L. Exley and Stephen J. Terry

We experimentally test how effort responds to wages—randomly assigned to accrue to individuals or to a charity—in the presence of expectations-based reference points or targets. When individuals earn money for themselves, higher wages lead to higher effort with... View Details

Keywords: Reference Points; Wage Elasticities; Labor Supply; Effor; Volunteering; Prosocial Behavior; Wages; Motivation and Incentives; Nonprofit Organizations; Behavior

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October 2012
Article

The Effect of Reference Point Prices on Mergers and Acquisitions

By: Malcolm Baker, Xin Pan and Jeffrey Wurgler

Prior stock price peaks of targets affect several aspects of merger and acquisition activity. Offer prices are biased toward recent peak prices although they are economically unremarkable. An offer's probability of acceptance jumps discontinuously when it exceeds a... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Stocks; Price; Valuation; Negotiation

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21 Dec 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Wage Elasticities in Working and Volunteering: The Role of Reference Points in a Laboratory Study

Keywords: by Christine Exley & Stephen Terry

2023
Working Paper

'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence

By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger

Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

March 2016
Article

Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach

By: Malcolm Baker, Brock Mendel and Jeffrey Wurgler

We outline a dividend signaling model that features investors who are averse to dividend cuts. Managers with strong unobservable cash earnings separate by paying high dividends but retain enough to be likely not to fall short next period. The model is consistent with a... View Details

Keywords: Investment

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17 Aug 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach

Keywords: by Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler

Article

Selfishly Benevolent or Benevolently Selfish? When Self-interest Undermines versus Promotes Prosocial Behavior

By: Julian Zlatev and Dale T. Miller

Existing research shows that appeals to self-interest sometimes increase and sometimes decrease prosocial behavior. We propose that this inconsistency is in part due to the framings of these appeals. Different framings generate different salient reference points,... View Details

Keywords: Altruism; Charitable Giving; Framing; Prosocial Behavior; Reference Points; Self-interest; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Framework; Behavior

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November 2012 (Revised May 2013)
Case

ASUSTeK and the Google Nexus 7 Tablet

By: Willy C. Shih and Jyun-Cheng Wang

Days after Jerry Shen introduced a new tablet computer at the Consumer Electronics Show, a Google meeting convinced him to go with a lower price point and co-branding as the Nexus 7. While his company would have a premier position at launch, companies like Samsung... View Details

2008
Working Paper

Variance-Seeking for Positive (and Variance-Aversion for Negative) Experiences: Risk-Seeking in the Domain of Gains?

By: Jolie Mae Martin, Gregory M. Barron and Michael I. Norton

In contrast to research which has conflated losses with negative experiences and gains with positive experiences, we argue that because reference points are set by memories of extremely good and bad experiences, most outcomes are seen as losses in positive domains and... View Details

Keywords: Change; Experience and Expertise; Marketing; Research; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Perspective

Article

Experience Theory, or How Desserts Are Like Losses

By: Jolie M. Martin, Martin Reimann and Michael I. Norton

While many experiments have explored risk preferences for money, few have systematically assessed risk preferences for everyday experiences. We propose a conceptual model and provide convergent evidence from seven experiments that, in contrast to a typical “zero”... View Details

Keywords: Experiences; Monetary Gambles; Risk Preferences; Experience Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions

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September 2003 (Revised October 2010)
Case

A Pain in the Hip

By: Richard M.J. Bohmer

Describes in detail the process of diagnosing the cause of a sore hip in a young girl. Referred to the emergency room by her pediatrician, the child is subjected to a set of diagnostic tests over a two-day period, each designed to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the... View Details

Keywords: Production; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Performance Improvement; Health Industry

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December 2005
Article

Up to Code: Does Your Company's Conduct Meet World-Class Standards?

By: Lynn Paine, Rohit Deshpandé, Joshua D. Margolis and Kim Eric Bettcher

Codes of conduct have long been a feature of corporate life. Today, they are arguably a legal necessity—at least for public companies with a presence in the United States. But the issue goes beyond U.S. legal and regulatory requirements. Sparked by corruption and... View Details

Keywords: Business Ethics; Standards Of Conduct; Globalized Firms and Management; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Values and Beliefs; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance

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November 2013
Article

Organizational Ambidexterity: Past, Present and Future

By: Charles A. O'Reilly III and Michael Tushman

Organizational ambidexterity refers to the ability of an organization to both explore and exploit—to compete in mature technologies and markets where efficiency, control, and incremental improvement are prized and to also compete in new technologies and markets where... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Ambidexterity; Organization Design; Innovation; Leadership; Organizational Design; Innovation and Invention

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1979
Article

Approximating the Efficiency Gain of Tax Reforms

By: Jerry R. Green and Eytan Sheshinski

Proper analysis of tax reform requires evaluation of the welfare effects induced by a change from one tax system to another. We present two methods for estimating these changes using only local information pertaining to an initial equilibrium with distortive taxes. It... View Details

Keywords: Taxation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Change; Analysis

2017
Working Paper

Malleable Monopoly Money: Does How You Pay For A Gift Card Affect How You Spend It?

By: Priya Raghubir and Shelle Santana

This research examines the malleability of a specific form of “monopoly” money (viz., Raghubir and Srivastava 2008), gift cards, and shows that the manner in which one purchases a gift card affects its subjective value and subsequent use. Study 1 shows that... View Details

Keywords: Subjective Value Of Money; Economic Psychology; Behavioral Economics; Gift Cards; Money; Value; Perception

2021
Working Paper

Salience

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their... View Details

Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior

June 2020
Article

Lazy Prices

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher J. Malloy and Quoc Nguyen

We explore the implications of a subtle "default" choice that firms make in their regular reporting practices, namely that firms typically repeat what they most recently reported. Using the complete history of regular quarterly and annual filings by U.S. corporations... View Details

Keywords: Default Behavior; Inertia; Firms; Disclosure; Information; Business or Company Management; Behavior; Annual Reports; Corporate Disclosure; Financial Reporting; United States

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2017
Chapter

Entrepreneurship in Larger Companies

By: William R. Kerr

Entrepreneurship in large and established companies is vital for their long-term success. Incumbent firms face many challenges ranging from global competition to digitization. In times past, being caught flat-footed might have set a company back several years, but it... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Entrepreneurship

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