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  • February 2025
  • Article

Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions

By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect competition. We show that a restriction on the covariance between unobserved demand and cost shocks can resolve endogeneity and identify the price parameter. We demonstrate how to... View Details
Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables; Price; Demand and Consumers; Competition
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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Causal Interpretation of Structural IV Estimands

By: Isaiah Andrews, Nano Barahona, Matthew Gentzkow, Ashesh Rambachan and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study the causal interpretation of instrumental variables (IV) estimands of nonlinear, multivariate structural models with respect to rich forms of model misspecification. We focus on guaranteeing that the researcher's estimator is sharp zero consistent, meaning... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods
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  • 2009
  • Working Paper

Watch What I Do, Not What I Say: The Unintended Consequences of the Homeland Investment Act

By: Dhammika Dharmapala, C. Fritz Foley and Kristin J. Forbes
This paper analyzes the impact on firm behavior of the Homeland Investment Act of 2004, which provided a one-time tax holiday for the repatriation of foreign earnings by U.S. multinationals. The analysis controls for endogeneity and omitted variable bias by using... View Details
Keywords: Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Government Legislation; Taxation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Behavior; United States
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  • 14 Dec 2017
  • HBS Seminar

Andrew Davis, Johnson, Cornell University

  • 2014
  • Working Paper

Bridging Science and Technology Through Academic-Industry Partnerships

By: Sen Chai and Willy C. Shih
Scientific research and its translation into commercialized technology is a driver of wealth creation and economic growth. Partnerships to foster the translational processes from public research organizations, such as universities and hospitals, to private firms are a... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Firm Performance; Public-private Partnership Funding; Translational Research; Small And Medium Enterprises; Partners and Partnerships; Public Sector; Private Sector; Performance; Science-Based Business; Innovation and Invention
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    Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

    Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data,... View Details
    • October–December 2022
    • Article

    Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

    By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
    Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
    Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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    • 16 Nov 2016
    • HBS Seminar

    Ben Shiller, Brandeis University

    • June 2011
    • Article

    Truth in Giving: Experimental Evidence on the Welfare Effects of Informed Giving to the Poor

    By: Christina Fong and Felix Oberholzer-Gee
    It is often difficult for donors to predict the value of charitable giving because they know little about the persons who receive their help. This concern is particularly acute when making contributions to organizations that serve heterogeneous populations. While we... View Details
    Keywords: Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Policy; Information; Knowledge Acquisition; Game Theory; Prejudice and Bias; Poverty; Welfare
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    • 19 May 2015
    • First Look

    First Look: May 19

    decreased volatility of supply shocks and increased volatility of the Fed's long-run inflation target. Endogenous responses of bond risk premia amplify these effects of monetary policy on bond risks. Download working paper:... View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
    • 12 Jul 2016
    • First Look

    July 12, 2016

    endogenously limit their leverage as they internalize the costs. Tightening the commercial banks' capital requirement from the status quo leads to safer commercial banks and more shadow banking activity in the economy. While the safety of... View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
    • Web

    Technology & Innovation - Faculty & Research

    and unfunded firms. Because randomization of the sample was not feasible, we address endogeneity around selection bias using a sample of qualitatively similar firms based on a funding decision score. This... View Details
    • 06 Jun 2017
    • First Look

    First Look at New Research and Ideas: June 6, 2017

    reallocation accounts for the majority of aggregate productivity gains, suggesting that ignoring this channel could lead to substantial bias in understanding the nature of gains from multinational production. Publisher's link:... View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
    • 06 Nov 2018
    • First Look

    New Research and Ideas, November 6, 2018

    MacKay, Alexander, and Nathan H. Miller Abstract—We consider the identification and estimation of demand systems in models of imperfect competition. Under standard assumptions about demand and supply, the bias that arises from price View Details
    Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
    • 25 Aug 2015
    • First Look

    First Look Tuesday

    addressing endogeneity concerns. We find that success in men's football and basketball has a significant impact on a school's respective football and basketball revenues; however, the effect is different based on the type of school. We... View Details
    • 11 Apr 2017
    • First Look

    First Look at New Research, April 11

    biased forecasts for potential future employers are more likely to face favorable career outcomes and bank executives appear to profit from the analysts' bias since the bias is associated with higher levels... View Details
    • 13 Jan 2009
    • First Look

    First Look: January 13, 2009

    purchase that follows an ad-click (CPA). Our analysis extends classic auction results by allowing players to make bids using two different pricing schemes, while the driving information for bidders' endogenous selection—the conversion... View Details
    Keywords: Martha Lagace
    • 18 Dec 2012
    • First Look

    First Look: December 18

    tractable endogenous growth framework that contains multiple innovation sizes, multi-product firms, and entry/exit. Firms invest in exploration R&D to acquire new product lines and exploitation R&D to improve their existing... View Details
    Keywords: Carmen Nobel
    • 05 Aug 2014
    • First Look

    First Look: August 5

    count, patent count, and publication count, as well as their citations and the collaborative nature between funded and unfunded firms. Because randomization of the sample was not feasible, we address endogeneity around selection View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
    • 07 Feb 2012
    • First Look

    First Look: February 7

    equal-division agreements. These endogenous framing effects may outweigh any overall social utility effects due to the mere presence of communication. In two studies, we find that non-binding talk about fairness within a three-party,... View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne