Publications

Article

All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity

By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Mateo Montenegro

Can information and communication technologies help citizens monitor their elections? We analyze a large-scale field experiment designed to answer this question in Colombia. We leveraged Facebook advertisements sent to over 4 million potential voters to encourage... View Details

Keywords: Social Influence; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Economics; Economy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Media; Social Marketing; Society; Political Elections; Advertising

Purchase

2017
Working Paper

Voter Mobilization and Trust in Electoral Institutions: Evidence from Kenya

By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Tavneet Suri

Voter mobilization campaigns face trade-offs in young democracies. In a large-scale experiment implemented in 2013 with the Kenyan Electoral Commission (IEBC), text messages intended to mobilize voters boosted participation but also decreased trust in electoral... View Details

Keywords: Political Participation; Electoral Institutions; Field Experiment; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; Trust; Kenya

August 2021
Article

Voter Mobilization and Trust in Electoral Institutions: Evidence from Kenya

By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Tavneet Suri

Voter mobilization campaigns face trade-offs in young democracies. In a large-scale experiment implemented in 2013 with the Kenyan Electoral Commission (IEBC), text messages intended to mobilize voters boosted participation but also decreased trust in electoral... View Details

Keywords: Political Participation; Electoral Institutions; Field Experiment; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; Trust

2024
Working Paper

Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries

By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz

Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details

Keywords: Political Parties; Political Instability; Democracy; Elections; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Ideology; Political Elections; Policy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Society; Perception; Crime and Corruption; Latin America; South America; Colombia; Peru

Forthcoming
Article

Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy

By: Simone Cremaschi, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti and Catherine E. De Vries

Electoral support for far-right parties is often linked to geographies of discontent. We argue that public service deprivation, defined as reduced access to public services at the local level, plays an important role in explaining these patterns. By exploiting an... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Electoral Behavior; Political Affiliation; Political Culture; Public Service; Political Elections; Policy; Government and Politics; Surveys; Geographic Location; Immigration; Europe; Italy

2025
Working Paper

Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms

By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl

Large-scale fires are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. While conventional wisdom suggests that firsthand experiences with natural disasters foster green coalitions by raising awareness of environmental degradation, we propose an alternative... View Details

Keywords: Climate Impact; Politics; Environmental Issues; Environmental Protection; Economic Analysis; Economic Behavior; Economic Geography; Economy; Economics; Climate Change; Environmental Management; Political Elections; Natural Disasters; Green Technology; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil

28 Jan 2015
Research & Ideas

Ground Game, Air Wars, and Other Marketing Lessons From Presidential Elections

2004 election when Republican George W. Bush emerged victorious. Chung says that had Democratic candidate John Kerry received more advertising from outside political groups, the election would have ended up in a 269-269 electoral tie.... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

30 Oct 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Do Voters Appreciate Responsive Governments? Evidence from Indian Disaster Relief

Keywords: by Shawn A. Cole, Andrew Healy & Eric D. Werker

10 May 2016
First Look

May 10, 2016

Society Has Social Science Taken Over Electoral Campaigns and Should We Regret It? By: Pons, Vincent Abstract—No abstract available. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51036 May 2016 Harvard Business Review... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

26 Jan 2016
First Look

January 26, 2016

diversity of sources. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=50204 PathBreakers? Women's Electoral Success and Future Political Participation By: Bhalotra, Sonia, Irma Clots-Figueras, and Lakshmi Iyer Abstract—We... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2022
Working Paper

Small Campaign Donors

By: Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons

In this paper, we study the characteristics and behavior of small donors, and compare them to those of large donors. We first build a novel dataset including all the 340 million individual contributions reported to the U.S. Federal Election Commission between 2005 and... View Details

Keywords: Campaign Finance; Campaign Contributions; Small Donations; ActBlue; WinRed; TV Advertising; Political Elections; Finance; Demographics; Advertising; Analysis; Analytics and Data Science

2023
Working Paper

Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic

By: Jessica Gagete-Miranda, Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Paula Rettl

While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. Using experimental and observational data from Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how leader... View Details

March 2007
Article

Local Company Politics: A Proposal

By: Raymond Fisman and Eric D. Werker

Corrupt politicians, and poor government more generally, are commonly viewed as a primary barrier to economic progress. The roots to these problems run deep in many political systems across the developing world, and attempts at reform have rarely found much success.... View Details

Keywords: Behavior