Publications

May 2010
Article

Elections and Discretionary Accruals: Evidence from 2004

By: Karthik Ramanna and Sugata Roychowdhury

We examine the accrual choices of outsourcing firms with links to U.S. congressional candidates during the 2004 elections, when corporate outsourcing was a major campaign issue. We find that politically connected firms with more extensive outsourcing activities have... View Details

Keywords: Political Economy; Accounting Information; Accruals Management; Campaign Contributions; Discretionary Accruals; Election Outcomes; Political Currency; Political Process; Social Issues; Political Elections; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Motivation and Incentives; Earnings Management; Welfare; United States

SSRN

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November 2, 2012
Editorial

Natural Disasters Hurt Incumbents

By: Shawn A. Cole, Andrew Healy and Eric Werker

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Natural Disasters; Political Elections

October 2016
Case

U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016: Marketing Communication Strategy

By: Robert J. Dolan

On October 18, 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump began the last three weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign by preparing for the next day's third and final presidential debate. Tuesday, November 8 was Election Day, but in... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Voting Behavior; Voting; Marketing Communications; Political Elections; United States

Educators

2022
Working Paper

Electoral Turnovers

By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement

October 2012
Case

Romney vs. Obama and U.S. Energy Policy

By: Rawi Abdelal and Kaitlyn Tuthill

In 2012, the energy sector in the United States was demanding major reform. Prices of oil and gas had continued to cripple the middle and lower class as the U.S. economy slowly recovered. At the same time, the U.S. lagged behind developed economies in production of... View Details

Keywords: Mitt Romney; Barack Obama; Energy; Election Outcomes; Climate Change; Renewable Energy; Political Elections; Policy; Business and Government Relations; Public Administration Industry; United States

Educators

21 May 2024
Research & Ideas

What the Rise of Far-Right Politics Says About the Economy in an Election Year

As more than 50 countries hold elections in 2024, far-right politicians and policies look poised to gain ground, continuing a years-long trend evident in Europe, the United States, and South America. These movements often stoke grievances... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

Article

All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity

By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Mateo Montenegro

Can information and communication technologies help citizens monitor their elections? We analyze a large-scale field experiment designed to answer this question in Colombia. We leveraged Facebook advertisements sent to over 4 million potential voters to encourage... View Details

Keywords: Social Influence; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Economics; Economy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Media; Social Marketing; Society; Political Elections; Advertising

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07 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

forecasters to use caution with one large body of data: past demographic voting trends. Analyzing census figures and US presidential and Congressional election results since 1952, researchers find that demographic factors considered... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

2024
Working Paper

Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries

By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz

Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details

Keywords: Political Parties; Political Instability; Democracy; Elections; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Ideology; Political Elections; Policy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Society; Perception; Crime and Corruption; Latin America; South America; Colombia; Peru

2023
Working Paper

Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections

By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences. In the median voter theorem, this outcome emerges as candidates strategically adjust their platform to get closer to their opponent. Despite its... View Details

Keywords: Political Ideology; Political Elections; United States; France

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Forthcoming
Article

Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy

By: Simone Cremaschi, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti and Catherine E. De Vries

Electoral support for far-right parties is often linked to geographies of discontent. We argue that public service deprivation, defined as reduced access to public services at the local level, plays an important role in explaining these patterns. By exploiting an... View Details

Keywords: Election Outcomes; Electoral Behavior; Political Affiliation; Political Culture; Public Service; Political Elections; Policy; Government and Politics; Surveys; Geographic Location; Immigration; Europe; Italy

28 Jan 2015
Research & Ideas

Ground Game, Air Wars, and Other Marketing Lessons From Presidential Elections

different types of advertising—candidates' own ads versus outside ads—and personal selling from field operations—in the form of door-to-door visits and phone calls to voters—affect voter preferences? And how do these campaign activities affect the View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

15 Jul 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Policy Bundling to Overcome Loss Aversion: A Method for Improving Legislative Outcomes

Keywords: by Katherine L. Milkman, Mary Carol Mazza, Lisa L. Shu, Chia-Jung Tsay & Max H. Bazerman

04 Dec 2014
Working Paper Summaries

The Air War versus The Ground Game: An Analysis of Multi-Channel Marketing in US Presidential Elections

Keywords: by Doug J. Chung & Lingling Zhang

June 2018 (Revised June 2018)
Case

Facebook Confronts a Crisis of Trust

By: William W. George and Amram Migdal

The case, “Facebook Confronts a Crisis of Trust,” starts with the crisis Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg is facing in March 2018 over Cambridge Analytica’s accessing data from 87 million Facebook accounts in order to influence the 2016 U.S. Presidential... View Details

Educators

Article

Who Will Vote Quadratically? Voter Turnout and Votes Cast Under Quadratic Voting

By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers

Who will vote quadratically in large-N elections under quadratic voting (QV)? First, who will vote? Although the core QV literature assumes that everyone votes, turnout is endogenous. Drawing on other work, we consider the representativeness of endogenously... View Details

Keywords: Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Quadratic Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Mathematical Methods

2020
Working Paper

On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers

Prominent theory research on voting uses models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many individuals turn out for... View Details

Keywords: Voter Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Voting; Behavior; Theory