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    • All HBS Web  (117)
      • Faculty Publications  (17)

      Economic FluctuationsRemove Economic Fluctuations →

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      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Business of K-12 Education in China

      By: Geoffrey Jones and Yuhai Wu
      This working paper examines the evolution of K-12 education in China, especially between 1985 and the present day, drawing extensive interviews with participants in the educational sector. China has been hugely successful in reaching almost 100 percent literacy,... View Details
      Keywords: K-12 Education; China; Real Estate; Early Childhood Education; Performance Evaluation; Teaching; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Personal Development and Career; Social Issues; Nonprofit Organizations; Private Sector; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry; China
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      Jones, Geoffrey, and Yuhai Wu. "The Business of K-12 Education in China." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-022, October 2021.
      • February 2020 (Revised August 2021)
      • Case

      Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro
      For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit, and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details
      Keywords: Commodities; Competitiveness; Carbon Tax; Environment; Capital Flows; Current Account; Mining; Economy; Problems and Challenges; Climate Change; Taxation; Competition; Financial Condition; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Environmental Sustainability; Australia
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Laura Alfaro. "Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China." Harvard Business School Case 720-028, February 2020. (Revised August 2021.)
      • June 2019
      • Article

      Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own... View Details
      Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Local-currency Bonds; Foreign Reserves; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Financial Markets; Developing Countries and Economies
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation." IMF Economic Review 67, no. 2 (June 2019): 261–287. (Also NBER Working Paper No. 19098.)
      • Article

      You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains

      By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
      Real exchange rate devaluations are typically seen as a viable development strategy, but the effectiveness of the approach may vary over time and across countries. This column explores this issue by focusing on the microeconomics of firm-level responses to exchange... View Details
      Keywords: Manufacturing Performance; Real Exchange Rate; Global Value Chains; Economics; Production; Performance
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      Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (October 2, 2018).
      • 2016
      • Chapter

      Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration

      By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and William R. Kerr
      The propagation of macroeconomic shocks through input-output and geographic networks can be a powerful driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. We first exposit that in the presence of Cobb-Douglas production functions and consumer preferences, there is a specific pattern... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Fluctuations; Geographic Collocation; Input-output Linkages; Propagation; Shocks; Networks; Fluctuation; System Shocks; Macroeconomics
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      Acemoglu, Daron, Ufuk Akcigit, and William R. Kerr. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration." In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Vol. 30, edited by Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan Parker, 273–335. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2016.
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration

      By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and William Kerr
      The propagation of macroeconomic shocks through input-output and geographic networks can be a powerful driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. We first exposit that in the presence of Cobb-Douglas production functions and consumer preferences there is a specific pattern... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Fluctuations; Geographic Collocation; Input-output Linkages; Propagation; Shocks; Networks; Fluctuation; System Shocks; Macroeconomics
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      Acemoglu, Daron, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-006, July 2015.
      • March 2014
      • Article

      Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Journal of Monetary Economics 62 (March 2014): 76–93.
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Adjusting National Accounting for Health: Is the Business Cycle Countercyclical?

      By: Mark Egan, Casey B. Mulligan and Tomas J. Philipson
      Many national accounts of economic output and prosperity, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or net domestic product (NDP), offer an incomplete picture by ignoring, for example, the value of leisure, home production, and the value of health. Previous discussed... View Details
      Keywords: Health; Valuation; Accounting; United States
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      Egan, Mark, Casey B. Mulligan, and Tomas J. Philipson. "Adjusting National Accounting for Health: Is the Business Cycle Countercyclical?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19058, May 2013.
      • August 2012 (Revised June 2017)
      • Case

      Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China

      By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro
      For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details
      Keywords: Commodities; Competitiveness; Carbon Tax; Environment; Capital Flows; Current Account; Mining; Economy; Problems and Challenges; Australia
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      Vietor, Richard H.K., and Laura Alfaro. "Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China." Harvard Business School Case 720-028, August 2012. (Revised June 2017.)
      • Article

      Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey

      By: Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr
      This paper surveys recent empirical studies on the economic impacts of immigration. The survey first examines the magnitude of immigration as an economic phenomenon in various host countries. The second part deals with the assimilation of immigrant workers into... View Details
      Keywords: Surveys; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Immigration; Economic Systems; Human Capital; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Fluctuation; Situation or Environment; Labor and Management Relations; United States; Europe
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      Kerr, Sari Pekkala, and William R. Kerr. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey." Finnish Economic Papers 24, no. 1 (Spring 2011): 1–32.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
      Citation
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-107, June 2010. (Revised August 2011.)
      • March 8, 2008
      • Comment

      Marketing Your Way Through a Recession

      By: John A. Quelch
      The signs of an imminent recession are all around us. The spillover from the subprime mortgage crisis is weakening both consumer confidence and the consumer spending—much of it on credit—that has been buoying the U.S. economy. View Details
      Keywords: Marketing; Recession; Products And Sales; Core Values; Fluctuation; Volatility; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Growth and Development; Marketing Strategy; Product Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; Salesforce Management; Asia; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America
      Citation
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      Quelch, John A. "Marketing Your Way Through a Recession." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (March 8, 2008).
      • July 2006 (Revised March 2008)
      • Case

      Changan Automobile Co., Ltd.

      By: Dennis Campbell and Donglin Xia
      Chairman Yin Jiaxu must communicate that the company's extraordinary reported performance in 2002 reflects Changan's unique strategy within the competitive dynamics of China's automobile industry. Changan's 2002 annual report demonstrated an extraordinary level of... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Reporting; Ethics; Corporate Disclosure; Media; Business and Shareholder Relations; Auto Industry; China
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      Campbell, Dennis, and Donglin Xia. "Changan Automobile Co., Ltd." Harvard Business School Case 107-006, July 2006. (Revised March 2008.)
      • June 1998
      • Article

      The Politics of Monetary Leadership and Followership: Stability in the European Monetary System Since the Currency Crisis of 1992

      By: Rawi Abdelal
      Despite widespread scepticism, there is a fundamental continuity in the stability of the European Monetary System (EMS) before and after the 1992 crisis. Although speculative pressures provoked European leaders to widen the fluctuation bands of the Exchange Rate... View Details
      Keywords: Money; Leadership; System; Balance and Stability; Europe
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      Abdelal, Rawi. "The Politics of Monetary Leadership and Followership: Stability in the European Monetary System Since the Currency Crisis of 1992." Political Studies 46, no. 2 (June 1998): 236–259. (Winner of Harrison Prize Awarded each year for the best article published by Political Studies in that volume​.)
      • August 1983 (Revised March 1995)
      • Case

      Railroad Problem and the Solution

      By: Richard S. Tedlow
      A vehicle for a discussion of the causes and consequences of the Interstate Commerce Act. View Details
      Keywords: Transportation; Rail Transportation; Fluctuation; Outcome or Result; Public Sector; Government and Politics; Business History; Complexity; Problems and Challenges; Rail Industry
      Citation
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      Tedlow, Richard S. "Railroad Problem and the Solution." Harvard Business School Case 384-032, August 1983. (Revised March 1995.)
      • 1975
      • Working Paper

      Information, Efficiency and Equilibrium

      By: Jerry R. Green
      When economic agents receive information over time concerning future events it is likely that prices for commodities whose value is influenced by these events will fluctuate in response to changes in the state of knowledge. If such events occur periodically,... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Supply and Industry; Price
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R. "Information, Efficiency and Equilibrium." Harvard Institute of Economic Research Discussion Paper, No. 284, December 1975.
      • Teaching Interest

      Managing International Trade and Investment

      By: Dante Roscini
      Managing International Trade and Investment (MITI) is designed for students who expect to engage directly or indirectly in commerce and in strategic or financial investments across national borders. It covers concepts that are relevant to a number of operating and... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Investment; Foreign Direct Investment
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