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- September 2020
- Article
Analyst Forecast Bundling
By: Michael Drake, Peter Joos, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
Changing economic conditions over the past two decades have created incentives for sell-side analysts to both provide their institutional clients tiered services and to streamline their written research process. One manifestation of these changes is an increased... View Details
Keywords: Analysts; Earnings Forecasts; Forecast Accuracy; Forecast Bundling; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction
Drake, Michael, Peter Joos, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Analyst Forecast Bundling." Management Science 66, no. 9 (September 2020): 4024–4046.
- Article
Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts
By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details
Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement
Merkley, Kenneth, Roni Michaely, and Joseph Pacelli. "Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 70, no. 1 (August 2020).
- July – August 2008
- Article
Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman
We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Craig James Chapman. "Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts ." Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 4 (July–August 2008): 25 – 39.
- February 2011
- Article
Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings
By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue
We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings... View Details
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Jeffrey Hales, and Yanfeng Xue. "Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings." Journal of Accounting & Economics 51, nos. 1-2 (February 2011): 279–299.
- 2011
- Chapter
The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly
By: George Serafeim
Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
- October 2008
- Article
The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts
The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that... View Details
Keywords: Information; Performance Expectations; Earnings Management; Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction
Baginski, Stephen P., John M. Hassell, and Michael D. Kimbrough. "The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts." Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 31, no. 3 (October 2008): 311–330.
- June 18, 2014
- Blog Post
How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance
By: Gabriel Karageorgiou, Daniela Saltzman and George Serafeim
Karageorgiou, Gabriel, Daniela Saltzman, and George Serafeim. "How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance." HBR Blog Network (June 18, 2014). http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/06/how-to-kill-quarterly-earnings-guidance/.
- 2003
- Article
Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns
By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller
In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details
Clement, Michael B., Richard Frankel, and Jeffrey Miller. "Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns." Journal of Accounting Research 41, no. 4 (2003): 653–679.
- Article
Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data
By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend
This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction
Hyslop, Dean, and Wilbur Townsend. "Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38, no. 2 (2020).
- June 2015
- Supplement
Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Scott Mayfield
This case analyzes IBM's financial performance and its capital allocation decisions over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, during which IBM returned more than $140B to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During this time, CEO Sam... View Details
- Article
The Relation between Analysts' Long-Term Earnings Forecasts and Stock Performance following Equity Offerings
By: P. Dechow, A. Hutton and R. Sloan
Dechow, P., A. Hutton, and R. Sloan. "The Relation between Analysts' Long-Term Earnings Forecasts and Stock Performance following Equity Offerings." Contemporary Accounting Research 17, no. 3 (Fall 2000).
- October 2024
- Teaching Plan
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble
By: Lou Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
- March 2024
- Supplement
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (B)
By: N. Louis Shipley, Stacy Straaberg and Tom Quinn
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Valuation; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
Shipley, N. Louis, Stacy Straaberg, and Tom Quinn. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 824-148, March 2024.
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- February 2005
- Article
Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting
By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse
This study classifies analysts' earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that (1) boldness likelihood increases with the analyst's prior accuracy, brokerage size, and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows, consistent with... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., and Senyo Tse. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting." Journal of Finance 60, no. 1 (February 2005): 307–341.
- Research Summary
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
We present evidence of inefficient information processing in
equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings
forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors
fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views
and to issue... View Details
- March 2024
- Case
Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)
By: N. Louis Shipley and Stacy Straaberg
In late March 2018, Teamworks CEO Zach Maurides learned Q1 2018 sales were at risk for a large forecasting miss. Founded in 2004, Teamworks’s software application assisted support staff in messaging, scheduling, and sharing documents with collegiate and professional... View Details
Keywords: Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Communication Strategy; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Cycles; Technological Innovation; Sports; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Marketing; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; United States; North Carolina
Shipley, N. Louis, and Stacy Straaberg. "Teamworks: Tackling a Forecasting Fumble (A)." Harvard Business School Case 824-057, March 2024.
- 05 Jul 2006
- Working Paper Summaries