Publications

March 2016
Article

To Groupon or Not to Groupon: The Profitability of Deep Discounts

By: Benjamin Edelman, Sonia Jaffe and Scott Duke Kominers

We examine the profitability and implications of online discount vouchers, a relatively new marketing tool that offers consumers large discounts when they prepay for participating firms' goods and services. Within a model of repeat experience good purchase, we examine... View Details

Keywords: Voucher Discounts; Groupon; Experience Goods; Repeat Purchase; Internet and the Web; Marketing Strategy; Marketing Communications

2014
Working Paper

~To Groupon or Not to Groupon: The Profitability of Deep Discounts

By: Benjamin G. Edelman

We examine the profitability and implications of online discount vouchers, a relatively new marketing tool that offers consumers large discounts when they prepay for participating firms' goods and services. Within a model of repeat experience good purchase, we examine... View Details

Keywords: Voucher Discounts; Groupon; Experience Goods; Repeat Purchase; Online Advertising; Price; Profit; Marketing Strategy; Retail Industry

2006
Working Paper

The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler

Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Household

Article

The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler

Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Investment Return; Economics; Stocks; Capital; Business Earnings; Investment Portfolio; Investment Funds; Cost; Saving

17 Aug 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach

Keywords: by Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler

March 2016
Article

Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach

By: Malcolm Baker, Brock Mendel and Jeffrey Wurgler

We outline a dividend signaling model that features investors who are averse to dividend cuts. Managers with strong unobservable cash earnings separate by paying high dividends but retain enough to be likely not to fall short next period. The model is consistent with a... View Details

Keywords: Investment

2025
Working Paper

Is Love Blind? AI-Powered Trading with Emotional Dividends

By: De-Rong Kong and Daniel Rabetti

We leverage the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) setting to assess the valuation of emotional dividends (LOVE), a long-standing empirical challenge in private-value markets such as art, antiques, and collectibles. Having created and validated our proxy, we use deep learning... View Details

Keywords: NFTs; Non-fungible Tokens; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Financial Markets

January 2022
Background Note

Residual Income Valuation Model

By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Albert Shin

This note explains the residual income valuation model (RIM), how it relates to "traditional" valuation models, the intuition behind its use, and empirical research related to its value relevance. RIM is theoretically equivalent to the dividend discount model and the... View Details

Keywords: Residual Income Valuation; Valuation; Research; Theory; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Financial Management; Business Strategy

07 Feb 2007
Research & Ideas

Dividends from Schumpeter’s Noble Failure

neglected classic, because the book is not a classic. Instead, Business Cycles is a noble failure that paid unexpected dividends both to the author and to scholarship. A link to the full version of this article from Business History... View Details

Keywords: by Thomas K. McCraw

February 2015
Case

Longbow Capital Partners

By: Malcolm Baker, Samuel G. Hanson and James Weber

Longbow Capital Partners is a value-oriented long/short hedge fund focused on stocks in the energy sector. In January 2011, Longbow had invested in NiSource, a Fortune 500 company that owns a diverse portfolio of regulated energy businesses. In late 2014, Longbow was... View Details

Keywords: Value Investing; Investment Strategy; Dividend Yield; Intrinsic Value; Dividend Discount Model; Master Limited Partnership; Hedge Fund; Energy Industry; Regulation; Utilities; Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States

June 2015
Supplement

Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Scott Mayfield

This case analyzes IBM's financial performance and its capital allocation decisions over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, during which IBM returned more than $140B to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During this time, CEO Sam... View Details

Keywords: Dividends; Share Repurchases; Earnings Guidance; Financial Statement Analysis; Financial Ratios; Payout Policy; Earnings Per Share (EPS); Earnings Management; Change Management; Leadership; Transformation; Financial Strategy

January 2015 (Revised October 2018)
Case

Dogs of the Dow

By: Malcolm Baker, Samuel G. Hanson and James Weber

This case describes the Dogs of the Dow investment strategy, value investing, and using dividend yields as a means to determine intrinsic value. It also describes exchange traded notes and a particular exchange traded note, known as the Dogs of the Dow, which tracks... View Details

Keywords: Dow Jones; Dow Jones Industrial Average; Exchange Traded Note; Exchange Traded Fund; Value Investing; Benjamin Graham; Investment Strategy; Dividend Yield; Intrinsic Value; Dividend Discount Model; Michael O'Higgins; Financial Instruments; Investment; Strategy; Financial Services Industry; United States

October 1987 (Revised January 2013)
Background Note

Note on Free Cash Flow Valuation Models

By: William A. Sahlman

Explores some of the issues involved in valuing cash flow streams. A simple model is presented that reveals the effect on value of changing assumptions about the appropriate discount rate, the level of profitability, the growth rate of sales, the asset intensity ratio,... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Valuation

August 2013
Background Note

A Simple Free Cash Flow Valuation Model

By: William A. Sahlman

Explores some of the issues involved in valuing cash flow streams. A simple model is presented that reveals the effect on value of changing assumptions about the appropriate discount rate, the level of profitability, the growth rate of sales, the asset intensity ratio,... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Valuation

Research Summary

Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Time Dependence and Preference: Implications for Compensation Structure and Shift Scheduling

By: Doug J. Chung, Byungyeon Kim and Byoung G. Park

This study jointly examines agents’ time dependence—period effects within instantaneous utility—and time preference—behavior on discounting future utility. The study considers the start- and end-of-period effects for time dependence and exponential and hyperbolic... View Details

Keywords: Time Preferences; Present Bias; Hyperbolic Discounting; Compensation; Dynamic Structural Models; Identification; Time Management; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Performance; Compensation and Benefits

1998
Article

Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods

By: Malcolm Baker, E. S. Mayfield and John Parsons

This paper provides an introduction to alternative models of uncertain commodity prices. A model of commodity price movements is the engine around which any valuation methodology for commodity production projects is built, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) models or... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Goods and Commodities; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Production; Projects; Cash Flow

September 2016 (Revised February 2017)
Case

MyTime

By: Juliane Begenau and Robin Greenwood

Ethan Anderson, the CEO of San Francisco–based e-commerce company MyTime, must decide on the company's growth strategy. MyTime’s first product was a website and mobile app that offered consumers a convenient way to book appointments with local merchants throughout the... View Details

Keywords: Customer Valuation; Discounted Cash Flow; Software; Valuation Methodologies; Subscriber Models; Financial Management; Corporate Finance; Growth and Development Strategy; Valuation; Applications and Software; Information Technology Industry; North and Central America