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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,646)
- People (4)
- News (244)
- Research (2,197)
- Events (9)
- Multimedia (5)
- Faculty Publications (1,527)
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,... View Details
Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- 2017
- Article
Blunted Ambiguity Aversion During Cost-Benefit Decisions in Antisocial Individuals
By: Joshua W. Buckholtz, Uma R. Karmarkar, Shengxuan Ye, Grace M. Brennan and Arielle Baskin-Sommers
Antisocial behavior is often assumed to reflect aberrant risk processing. However, many of the most significant forms of antisocial behavior, including crime, reflect the outcomes of decisions made under conditions of ambiguity rather than risk. While risk and... View Details
Keywords: Ambiguity; Neuroscience; Neuroeconomics; Choice; Psychology; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost vs Benefits; Health Disorders
Buckholtz, Joshua W., Uma R. Karmarkar, Shengxuan Ye, Grace M. Brennan, and Arielle Baskin-Sommers. "Blunted Ambiguity Aversion During Cost-Benefit Decisions in Antisocial Individuals." Art. 2030. Scientific Reports 7 (2017).
- Research Summary
Optimal Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Inventory control problems in supply chains. In this stream of theoretical research, Professor Goh has investigated how inventory should be optimally managed in supply chains. Specifically, he has studied how supply chains can make decisions to operate... View Details
- 1995
- Book
Decisions under Uncertainty
By: D. E. Bell and A. Schleifer Jr.
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions
Bell, D. E., and A. Schleifer Jr. Decisions under Uncertainty. Cambridge, MA: Course Technology Inc. (CTI), 1995.
- TeachingInterests
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
By: David E. Bell
Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details
- September 2014
- Article
The Interrelationships Between Brand and Channel Choice
By: Scott Neslin, Kenshuk Jerath, Anand Bodapati, Eric T. Bradlow, John A. Deighton, Sonja Gensler, Leonard Lee, Elisa Montaguti, Rahul Telang, Raj Venkatesan, Peter C. Verhoef and Z. John Zhang
We propose a framework for the joint study of the consumer's decision of where to buy and what to buy. The framework is rooted in utility theory where the utility is for a particular channel/brand combination. The framework contains firm actions, the consumer search... View Details
Keywords: Brand Choice; Channel Choice; Utility Theory; Marketing; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior; Learning; Electronics Industry; Auto Industry; Information Technology Industry; Telecommunications Industry; Aerospace Industry
Neslin, Scott, Kenshuk Jerath, Anand Bodapati, Eric T. Bradlow, John A. Deighton, Sonja Gensler, Leonard Lee, Elisa Montaguti, Rahul Telang, Raj Venkatesan, Peter C. Verhoef, and Z. John Zhang. "The Interrelationships Between Brand and Channel Choice." Marketing Letters 25, no. 3 (September 2014): 319–330.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details
Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
- January 2014 (Revised November 2015)
- Background Note
Rational Choice and Managerial Decision-Making
By: Willy Shih
This note discusses Herbert Simon's notion of bounded rationality: how managers may sometimes make suboptimal choices because of their limited ability to access or process information. View Details
Keywords: Rational Choice; Bounded Rationality; Satisficing; Herbert Simon; Agenda-setting; Choice; Alternatives; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Judgments
Shih, Willy. "Rational Choice and Managerial Decision-Making." Harvard Business School Background Note 614-048, January 2014. (Revised November 2015.)
- February 2022
- Module Note
Behavioral Economics and Choice Architecture
By: John Beshears
This module note for instructors describes a module on the design of choice architecture solutions to organizational problems. View Details
Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Choice Architecture; Organizations; Problems and Challenges; Decision Choices and Conditions; Economics
Beshears, John. "Behavioral Economics and Choice Architecture." Harvard Business School Module Note 922-029, February 2022.
- Research Summary
Self-environment relationship and its effect on decisions under risk and uncertainty
My research seek to better understand the main cognitive and social abilities that guide our judgments, and the ways they interact with aspects of the situation to shape humans' decisions. It is currently comprised of three related... View Details
- January 2006
- Tutorial
Alternative Choice Decisions Analysis
By: David F. Hawkins, V.G. Narayanan, Jacob Cohen and Michele Jurgens
Shows how managers use information on costs and revenues to decide between possible alternative courses of action. Presents two case examples of differential cost analysis. The first, a make or buy decision, examines two alternatives in which only costs vary. The... View Details
- Research Summary
Real Options and Financial Decisions Under Uncertainty
Marc L. Bertoneche is developing material relevant to the business world in this field. He is particularly interested in applying the Real Option approach to Brand Valuation. View Details
- Article
Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty
By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev
Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with... View Details
Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence
Daniels, David P., and Julian Zlatev. "Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 151 (March 2019): 132–149.
- December 2002
- Article
The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty
By: K. A. Froot and S. Posner
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Asset Pricing; Hedging; Banking; Insurance; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Insurance Industry
Froot, K. A., and S. Posner. "The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty." Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Theory 27, no. 2 (December 2002): 153–165. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 8106, February 2001.)
- 24 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- February 2006
- Teaching Note
Alternative Choice Decision Analysis (TN)
By: David F. Hawkins, V.G. Narayanan, Michele Jurgens and Jacob Cohen
Keywords: Decision Making
- June 2020
- Article
The Isolated Choice Effect and Its Implications for Gender Diversity in Organizations
By: Edward H. Chang, Erika L. Kirgios, Aneesh Rai and Katherine L. Milkman
We highlight a feature of personnel selection decisions that can influence the gender diversity of groups and teams. Specifically, we show that people are less likely to choose candidates whose gender would increase group diversity when making personnel selections in... View Details
Keywords: Behavior And Behavioral Decision Making; Organizational Studies; Decision Analysis; Economics; Decision Making; Behavior; Analysis; Organizations; Diversity; Gender
Chang, Edward H., Erika L. Kirgios, Aneesh Rai, and Katherine L. Milkman. "The Isolated Choice Effect and Its Implications for Gender Diversity in Organizations." Management Science 66, no. 6 (June 2020): 2752–2761.
- 2022
- Book
Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices
By: Don A. Moore and Max H. Bazerman
When we think of leaders, we often imagine lone, inspirational figures lauded for their behaviors, attributes, and personal decisions, and leadership books often reinforce that view. However, this approach ignores a leader’s mission to empower others. Applying decades... View Details
Moore, Don A., and Max H. Bazerman. Decision Leadership: Empowering Others to Make Better Choices. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2022.