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- August 1999
- Article
Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions
By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman
Moore, D. A., T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox, and M. H. Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 2 (August 1999): 95–114.
- 2010
- Article
Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake
By: Matthew Rabin and Max Bazerman
Managers often engage in risk-averse behavior, and economists, decision analysts, and managers treat risk aversion as a preference. In many cases, acting in a risk-averse manner is a mistake, but managers can correct this mistake with greater reflection. This article... View Details
Rabin, Matthew, and Max Bazerman. "Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake." California Management Review 61, no. 3 (May 2019): 34–48.
- January 2011 (Revised October 2012)
- Background Note
Strengths Become Weaknesses: Cognitive Biases in Founder Decision-Making
By: Noam T. Wasserman and Kyle Anderson
This note combines vignettes and scholarly research to outline the cognitive biases and decision-making strategies that influence key decisions in the founding process. It is argued that the same biases which provide early benefits can later prove to be a weakness for... View Details
Wasserman, Noam T., and Kyle Anderson. "Strengths Become Weaknesses: Cognitive Biases in Founder Decision-Making." Harvard Business School Background Note 811-068, January 2011. (Revised October 2012.)
- 2010
- Working Paper
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation
Ruback, Richard S. "Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-036, October 2010.
- 2016
- Other Teaching and Training Material
Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making
By: Francesca Gino, Max Bazerman and Katherine Shonk
This Reading argues that decision making is systematically flawed and introduces methods to improve decision-making effectiveness. The Essential Reading section covers the rational decision-making model and three important ideas that challenge it: Herbert Simon's... View Details
Gino, Francesca, Max Bazerman, and Katherine Shonk. "Organizational Behavior Reading: Decision Making." Core Curriculum Readings Series. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Publishing 8383, 2016. Electronic.
- 2013
- Book
Judgment in Managerial Decision Making
By: Max Bazerman and Don A. Moore
Is your judgment influenced by personal biases? In situations requiring careful judgment, we're all influenced by our own biases to some extent. But, with Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, you can learn how to overcome those biases to make better... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Management Practices and Processes; Management Skills; Managerial Roles; Performance Improvement; Prejudice and Bias
Bazerman, Max, and Don A. Moore. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making. 8th ed. John Wiley & Sons, 2013.
- May 2012
- Article
Incentive Schemes, Sorting and Behavioral Biases of Employees: Experimental Evidence
By: Ian Larkin and Stephen Leider
We investigate how the convexity of a firm's incentives interacts with worker overconfidence to affect sorting decisions and performance. We demonstrate experimentally that overconfident employees are more likely to sort into a non-linear incentive scheme over a linear... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Performance; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias; Decisions; Employees; Wages
Larkin, Ian, and Stephen Leider. "Incentive Schemes, Sorting and Behavioral Biases of Employees: Experimental Evidence." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 4, no. 2 (May 2012).
- July 1977
- Article
Social Roles, Social Control and Biases in Social Perception Processes
By: L. D. Ross, T. M. Amabile and J. Steinmetz
To make accurate social judgments, an individual must both recognize and adequately correct for the self-presentation advantages or disadvantages conferred upon actors by their social roles. Two experiments using 120 undergraduates examined social perceptions formed... View Details
Keywords: Perception; Prejudice and Bias; Social Psychology; Judgments; Power and Influence; Status and Position; Situation or Environment
Ross, L. D., T. M. Amabile, and J. Steinmetz. "Social Roles, Social Control and Biases in Social Perception Processes." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35, no. 7 (July 1977): 485–494.
- 30 Jan 2006
- Research & Ideas
Looking Behind Bad Decisions
political science to explain drivers behind the crafting of public policy. Now Bazerman and coauthors Jonathan Baron and Katherine Shonk are looking into the psychology of decision making to provide a fuller explanation. Their paper,... View Details
Keywords: by Manda Salls
- April 2019
- Article
Score Blending: How Scale Response Grouping Biases Perceived Standing
By: Ryan Hauser and Norbert Schwarz
Numerical values—from test scores to credit scores—inform us of our relative standing and can shape our decisions. The values are usually presented in a continuous format (which places scores on a single line) or a grouped format (which separates scores into several... View Details
Hauser, Ryan, and Norbert Schwarz. "Score Blending: How Scale Response Grouping Biases Perceived Standing." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 32, no. 2 (April 2019): 194–202.
- Article
Price and Quality Decisions by Self-Serving Managers
By: Marco Bertini, Daniel Halbheer and Oded Koenigsberg
We present a theory of price and quality decisions by managers who are self-serving. In the theory, firms stress the price or quality of their products, but not both. Accounting for this, managers exploit any uncertainty about the cause of market outcomes to credit... View Details
Keywords: Causal Reasoning; Self-serving Bias; Strategic Orientation; Managerial Decision-making; Price; Quality; Decision Making; Theory
Bertini, Marco, Daniel Halbheer, and Oded Koenigsberg. "Price and Quality Decisions by Self-Serving Managers." International Journal of Research in Marketing 37, no. 2 (June 2020): 236–257.
- 28 Aug 2008
- Working Paper Summaries
How Can Decision Making Be Improved?
- 2006
- Working Paper
Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning
To date, little research has been done on managing the organizational and political dimensions of generating and improving forecasts in corporate settings. We examine the implementation of a supply chain planning process at a consumer electronics company, concentrating... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Business or Company Management; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Planning; Electronics Industry
Oliva, Rogelio, and Noel Watson. "Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-024, October 2006. (Revised March 2007, January 2008.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
G.I. Joe Phenomena: Understanding the Limits of Metacognitive Awareness on Debiasing
By: Ariella S. Kristal and Laurie R. Santos
Knowing about one’s biases does not always allow one to overcome those biases— a phenomenon referred to as the G. I. Joe fallacy. We explore why knowing about a bias doesn’t necessarily change biased behavior. We argue that seemingly disparate G. I. Joe... View Details
Keywords: Biases; Judgment; Decision-making; Nudge; Debiasing; Illusions; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making; Behavior; Change
Kristal, Ariella S., and Laurie R. Santos. "G.I. Joe Phenomena: Understanding the Limits of Metacognitive Awareness on Debiasing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-084, January 2021.
- Article
Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty
By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev
Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with... View Details
Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence
Daniels, David P., and Julian Zlatev. "Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 151 (March 2019): 132–149.
- 2012
- Working Paper
The Dark Side of the Vote: Biased Voters, Social Information, and Information Aggregation Through Majority Voting
We experimentally investigate information aggregation through majority voting when some voters are biased. In such situations, majority voting can have a "dark side", i.e. result in groups making choices inferior to those made by individuals acting alone. We develop a... View Details
Morton, Rebecca B., Marco Piovesan, and Jean-Robert Tyran. "The Dark Side of the Vote: Biased Voters, Social Information, and Information Aggregation Through Majority Voting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-017, August 2012.
- September 2021
- Article
Gender Stereotypes in Deliberation and Team Decisions
By: Katherine B. Coffman, Clio Bryant Flikkema and Olga Shurchkov
We explore how groups deliberate and decide on ideas in an experiment with communication. We find that gender biases play a significant role in which group members are chosen to answer on behalf of the group. Conditional on the quality of their ideas, individuals are... View Details
Keywords: Gender Differences; Stereotypes; Teams; Economic Experiments; Gender; Prejudice and Bias; Groups and Teams; Perception
Coffman, Katherine B., Clio Bryant Flikkema, and Olga Shurchkov. "Gender Stereotypes in Deliberation and Team Decisions." Games and Economic Behavior 129 (September 2021): 329–349.
- 16 Jul 2007
- Research & Ideas
Understanding the ‘Want’ vs. ’Should’ Decision
should purchase the used Toyota Camry. How consumers weigh those decisions is crucial information for retailers, and is the subject of recent research by Harvard Business School doctoral candidates Todd Rogers and Katy Milkman, in... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?
By: Benjamin Enke, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven
Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, empirical evidence on the effect of large incentives—as present in relevant economic decisions—on cognitive biases is scant. This paper tests the effect of incentives on four widely documented biases: base rate... View Details
Enke, Benjamin, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman, and Jeroen van de Ven. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-102, March 2021.