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- All HBS Web
(620)
- News (80)
- Research (412)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (172)
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- October 2019
- Article
Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads
Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread... View Details
Keywords: Credit Risk; Derivatives; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Institutions
Siriwardane, Emil N. "Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads." Journal of Finance 74, no. 5 (October 2019): 2303–2347.
- September 2008
- Article
Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification
By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann
This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States
Hanson, Samuel G., M. Hashem Pesaran, and Til Schuermann. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification." Journal of Empirical Finance 15, no. 4 (September 2008): 583–612.
- 2016
- Working Paper
Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity
By: Gordon Y Liao
I document economically large and persistent discrepancies in the pricing of credit risk between corporate bonds denominated in different currencies. The discrepancies amount to 50-100 basis points on trillions of dollars of debt notional. I relate this violation of... View Details
Keywords: Market Segmentation; Debt Issuance; Covered Interest Rate Parity; Cross-currency Basis; Credit Risk; Financial Markets; Credit
Liao, Gordon Y. "Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity." Working Paper, October 2016.
- October 2020 (Revised June 2021)
- Case
Francisco Partners Private Credit Opportunity Fund
By: Luis M. Viceira, John D. Dionne, Soracha Prathanrasnikorn and Ari Sunshine
In April 2020, Scott Einsenberg, the Head of Credit at the private equity firm Francisco Partners, is deciding whether to go ahead with extending a private lending agreement to Eventbrite, Inc. (NYSE: EB), a leading global event management and online ticketing... View Details
Viceira, Luis M., John D. Dionne, Soracha Prathanrasnikorn, and Ari Sunshine. "Francisco Partners Private Credit Opportunity Fund." Harvard Business School Case 221-002, October 2020. (Revised June 2021.)
- June 2024
- Article
Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market
By: Wenxin Du, Salil Gadgil, Michael Gordy and Clara Vega
We investigate how market participants price and manage counterparty credit risk using confidential trade repository data on single-name credit default swap (CDS) transactions. We find that counterparty risk has a modest impact on the pricing of CDS contracts but a... View Details
Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Market Participation; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Financial Markets; Credit
Du, Wenxin, Salil Gadgil, Michael Gordy, and Clara Vega. "Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market." Management Science 70, no. 6 (June 2024): 3808–3826.
- Fourth Quarter 2007
- Article
Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk
By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details
Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation
Gray, Dale . F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk." Special Issue on Credit Analysis. Journal of Investment Management 5, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 2007): 5–28.
- December 2007
- Article
Applying Modern Risk Management to Equity and Credit Analysis
By: Robert C. Merton
Traditional conventions of accounting and actuarial science distort the valuation of capital risk in corporations with pension plans because under these conventions, pension assets and liabilities are not included in balance sheet calculations. The modern risk... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Valuation; Financial Reporting; Decision Making; Credit; Financial Statements; Capital; Equity; Compensation and Benefits
Merton, Robert C. "Applying Modern Risk Management to Equity and Credit Analysis." CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly 24 (December 2007): 14–22.
- Research Summary
Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk
In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details
- May 2005 (Revised November 2005)
- Background Note
Note on Credit Derivatives
Provides the basic underlying model for credit risk analysis, as well as covers basic credit risk derivatives, such as asset swaps, credit default swaps, total return of rate swaps, and credit spread options. View Details
Chacko, George C., Peter A. Hecht, Anders Sjoman, and Kate Hao. "Note on Credit Derivatives." Harvard Business School Background Note 205-111, May 2005. (Revised November 2005.)
- Article
Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?
By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli
We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit... View Details
Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career
Gao, Janet, Kristoph Kleiner, and Joseph Pacelli. "Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?" Review of Financial Studies 33, no. 12 (December 2020): 5706–5749.
- July 1998
- Article
International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks
By: Ronald I. McKinnon and Huw Pill
McKinnon, Ronald I., and Huw Pill. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks." World Development 26, no. 7 (July 1998): 1267–1282.
- 2021
- Working Paper
International Evidence on the Effects of a Local Presence by U.S. Credit Rating Agencies
By: Liran Eliner, Michael Machokoto and Anywhere Sikochi
Major U.S. credit rating agencies are criticized for failing to understand developments in other economies and thereby impeding capital access by assigning lower ratings. Consistent with this, we find that Moody's and S&P credit ratings are more favorable after the... View Details
Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Credit Ratings; Rating Adjustments; Rating Disagreement; Geographic Proximity; Soft Information; Credit; Geographic Location; Local Range
Eliner, Liran, Michael Machokoto, and Anywhere Sikochi. "International Evidence on the Effects of a Local Presence by U.S. Credit Rating Agencies." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-083, February 2020. (Revised August 2021.)
Disruption and Credit Markets
When innovation and entry are high in an industry, is this good or bad news for incumbents? We show that recently the answer has been bad news. Industries with elevated venture capital activity and returns, and with a larger presence of newly listed firms, show a... View Details
- 04 Mar 2009
- Op-Ed
Credit is Not the Bogey
with a balance that they never pay off. For low-wage workers, credit has been the lifesaving crutch. So as we attempt to jump-start the economy of 2009, we should recognize both the risks and the advantages... View Details
- August 2023
- Article
Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?
By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I... View Details
Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Soft Rating Adjustments; Default; Credit; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Financial Institutions; Risk Management
Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
- Research Summary
Corporate Risk Management
Traditionally companies have managed different kinds of risk individually: the corporate treasurer or finance director handles credit risk and foreign exchange risk, the human resources manager handles employment risk, and so on. Integrated risk management calls for... View Details
- June 2016
- Article
Local Currency Sovereign Risk
By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details
Du, Wenxin, and Jesse Schreger. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk." Journal of Finance 71, no. 3 (June 2016): 1027–1070.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu
We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show... View Details
Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, and Camelia Minoiu. "Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-068, April 2022.
- 2015
- Working Paper
Banks' Risk Exposures
By: Juliane Begenau, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider
This paper studies U.S. banks' exposure to interest rate and credit risk. We exploit the factor structure in interest rates to represent many bank positions in terms of simple factor portfolios. This approach delivers time varying measures of exposure that are... View Details
Begenau, Juliane, Monika Piazzesi, and Martin Schneider. "Banks' Risk Exposures." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21334, July 2015.
- August 2006
- Article
Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).