Credit Risk - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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October 2019
Article

Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Derivatives; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Institutions

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September 2008
Article

Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

By: Samuel G. Hanson, M. Hashem Pesaran and Til Schuermann

This paper examines the impact of neglected heterogeneity on credit risk. We show that neglecting heterogeneity in firm returns and/or default thresholds leads to under estimation of expected losses (EL), and its effect on portfolio risk is ambiguous. Once EL is... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Credit; Investment Return; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Diversification; Complexity; United States

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2016
Working Paper

Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity

By: Gordon Y Liao

I document economically large and persistent discrepancies in the pricing of credit risk between corporate bonds denominated in different currencies. The discrepancies amount to 50-100 basis points on trillions of dollars of debt notional. I relate this violation of... View Details

Keywords: Market Segmentation; Debt Issuance; Covered Interest Rate Parity; Cross-currency Basis; Credit Risk; Financial Markets; Credit

October 2020 (Revised June 2021)
Case

Francisco Partners Private Credit Opportunity Fund

By: Luis M. Viceira, John D. Dionne, Soracha Prathanrasnikorn and Ari Sunshine

In April 2020, Scott Einsenberg, the Head of Credit at the private equity firm Francisco Partners, is deciding whether to go ahead with extending a private lending agreement to Eventbrite, Inc. (NYSE: EB), a leading global event management and online ticketing... View Details

Keywords: Private Debt; Private Credit; Industry Evolution; Private Equity; Investment; Analysis

June 2024
Article

Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market

By: Wenxin Du, Salil Gadgil, Michael Gordy and Clara Vega

We investigate how market participants price and manage counterparty credit risk using confidential trade repository data on single-name credit default swap (CDS) transactions. We find that counterparty risk has a modest impact on the pricing of CDS contracts but a... View Details

Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Market Participation; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Financial Markets; Credit

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Fourth Quarter 2007
Article

Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details

Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

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December 2007
Article

Applying Modern Risk Management to Equity and Credit Analysis

By: Robert C. Merton

Traditional conventions of accounting and actuarial science distort the valuation of capital risk in corporations with pension plans because under these conventions, pension assets and liabilities are not included in balance sheet calculations. The modern risk... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Valuation; Financial Reporting; Decision Making; Credit; Financial Statements; Capital; Equity; Compensation and Benefits

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Research Summary

Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details

Article

Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?

By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli

We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit... View Details

Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career

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May 2005 (Revised November 2005)
Background Note

Note on Credit Derivatives

Provides the basic underlying model for credit risk analysis, as well as covers basic credit risk derivatives, such as asset swaps, credit default swaps, total return of rate swaps, and credit spread options. View Details

Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit

July 1998
Article

International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks

By: Ronald I. McKinnon and Huw Pill

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2021
Working Paper

International Evidence on the Effects of a Local Presence by U.S. Credit Rating Agencies

By: Liran Eliner, Michael Machokoto and Anywhere Sikochi

Major U.S. credit rating agencies are criticized for failing to understand developments in other economies and thereby impeding capital access by assigning lower ratings. Consistent with this, we find that Moody's and S&P credit ratings are more favorable after the... View Details

Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Credit Ratings; Rating Adjustments; Rating Disagreement; Geographic Proximity; Soft Information; Credit; Geographic Location; Local Range

Disruption and Credit Markets

When innovation and entry are high in an industry, is this good or bad news for incumbents? We show that recently the answer has been bad news. Industries with elevated venture capital activity and returns, and with a larger presence of newly listed firms, show a... View Details

04 Mar 2009
Op-Ed

Credit is Not the Bogey

with a balance that they never pay off. For low-wage workers, credit has been the lifesaving crutch. So as we attempt to jump-start the economy of 2009, we should recognize both the risks and the advantages... View Details

Keywords: by Nicolas P. Retsinas & Eric S. Belsky; Construction; Real Estate; Financial Services

August 2023
Article

Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?

By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi

We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I... View Details

Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies; Soft Rating Adjustments; Default; Credit; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Financial Institutions; Risk Management

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Research Summary

Corporate Risk Management

Traditionally companies have managed different kinds of risk individually: the corporate treasurer or finance director handles credit risk and foreign exchange risk, the human resources manager handles employment risk, and so on. Integrated risk management calls for... View Details

June 2016
Article

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger

We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Sovereign Finance; Currency; Emerging Markets

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2022
Working Paper

Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy Across Races: Evidence from the U.S. Credit Register

By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia and Camelia Minoiu

We examine the consequences of monetary policy on racial disparities, focusing on the role of bank lending to firms through collateral and selection channels. Leveraging comprehensive loan-level data from the U.S. credit register (Y-14Q) of the Federal Reserve, we show... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Inequity; Credit Registry; Wealth; Collateral Channel; Selection; Racial Disparity; Racial Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Banks and Banking; Credit; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banking Industry; United States

2015
Working Paper

Banks' Risk Exposures

By: Juliane Begenau, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider

This paper studies U.S. banks' exposure to interest rate and credit risk. We exploit the factor structure in interest rates to represent many bank positions in terms of simple factor portfolios. This approach delivers time varying measures of exposure that are... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Credit; Banks and Banking; United States

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Article

Modeling dependencies between rating categories and their effects on prediction in a credit risk portfolio

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