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- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
- June 2020
- Article
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details
Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
- 09 Mar 2021
- Working Paper Summaries
Real Credit Cycles
- May 2010
- Article
Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles
By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein
Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry
Ivashina, Victoria, and David Scharfstein. "Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 57–61.
- February 2018
- Article
Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles." Journal of Finance 73, no. 1 (February 2018): 199–227.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality
By: Quirin Fleckenstein, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We document three facts about nonbank lending in the syndicated loan market. First, nonbank lending is more than twice as cyclical as bank lending. Second, declines in nonbank lending explain most of the declines in syndicated lending during the Great Recession and... View Details
Keywords: Nonbank Lending; Credit Cycles; CLO; Mutual Funds; Leveraged Lending; COVID-19; Great Migration; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financing and Loans; Business Cycles
Fleckenstein, Quirin, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality." Working Paper, June 2021.
- Forthcoming
- Article
Reflexivity in Credit Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets." Journal of Finance (forthcoming).
- 08 Sep 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
A Model of Credit Market Sentiment
- 2016
- Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details
Lopez-Salido, David, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21879, January 2016.
- 04 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
- 14 Mar 2011
- Research & Ideas
Keeping Credit Flowing to Consumers in Need
credit crunch? Nicolas P. Retsinas: In 2007 the nonprime mortgage market crumbled. Many of these products were predicated on ever-rising home values, which would enable owners to sell, pay off, buy again-a View Details
- 2008
- Working Paper
Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India
By: Shawn A. Cole
This paper integrates theories of political budget cycles with theories of tactical electoral redistribution to test for political capture in a novel way. Studying banks in India, I find that government-owned bank lending tracks the electoral cycle, with agricultural... View Details
Keywords: Agribusiness; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Political Elections; State Ownership; Banking Industry; India
Cole, Shawn A. "Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-001, July 2008.
- February 2018
- Article
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a... View Details
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign Debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Europe
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Review of Finance 22, no. 1 (February 2018): 83–115.
- 2014
- Working Paper
Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a... View Details
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Working Paper, April 2014.
- 2011
- Working Paper
Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-107, June 2010. (Revised August 2011.)
- March 2014
- Article
Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Journal of Monetary Economics 62 (March 2014): 76–93.
- Working Paper
Covenant-Light Contracts and Creditor Coordination
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
In 2015, 70% of newly issued leveraged loans had weaker enforcement features, called covenant-light or "cov-lite"; this is nearly a three-time increase in cov-lite issuance compared to a previous peak in 2007. We evaluate whether this development can be attributed to... View Details
Keywords: Credit Cycles; Loan Contracts; Debt Covenants; Contracts; Financing and Loans; Credit; Borrowing and Debt
Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Covenant-Light Contracts and Creditor Coordination." Swedish House of Finance Research Paper, No. 16-09, March 2016.
- August 2006
- Article
Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
- November 1994 (Revised February 1996)
- Case
Toy World, Inc.
By: W. Carl Kester
A shift from seasonal to level production of toys will change the seasonal cycle of Toy World's working capital needs and necessitate new bank credit arrangements. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details
Keywords: Working Capital; Business Cycles; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Financial Statements
Kester, W. Carl. "Toy World, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 295-073, November 1994. (Revised February 1996.)
- February 2021
- Case
Lidya: Bringing Nigerian FinTech Innovation to Global Small and Medium Enterprises
By: Lauren Cohen and Spencer C.N. Hagist
Lidya CEO Tunde Kehinde must size up options for the expansion of his novel lending practices that drastically reduce the credit cycle in his developing Nigeria, and determine if expansion into Eastern Europe will prove successful or disastrous. View Details
Cohen, Lauren, and Spencer C.N. Hagist. "Lidya: Bringing Nigerian FinTech Innovation to Global Small and Medium Enterprises." Harvard Business School Case 221-083, February 2021.