Publications

June 2020
Article

U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina

Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details

Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets

09 Mar 2021
Working Paper Summaries

Real Credit Cycles

Keywords: by Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry

May 2010
Article

Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein

Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry

February 2018
Article

Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle, EME... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Nonbank Lending and Credit Cyclicality

By: Quirin Fleckenstein, Manasa Gopal, German Gutierrez and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We document three facts about nonbank lending in the syndicated loan market. First, nonbank lending is more than twice as cyclical as bank lending. Second, declines in nonbank lending explain most of the declines in syndicated lending during the Great Recession and... View Details

Keywords: Nonbank Lending; Credit Cycles; CLO; Mutual Funds; Leveraged Lending; COVID-19; Great Migration; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financing and Loans; Business Cycles

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

08 Sep 2016
Working Paper Summaries

A Model of Credit Market Sentiment

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin; Financial Services

2016
Working Paper

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Credit; Macroeconomics

Purchase

04 Mar 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Keywords: by David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek; Banking

14 Mar 2011
Research & Ideas

Keeping Credit Flowing to Consumers in Need

credit crunch? Nicolas P. Retsinas: In 2007 the nonprime mortgage market crumbled. Many of these products were predicated on ever-rising home values, which would enable owners to sell, pay off, buy again-a View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services; Construction; Real Estate

February 2018
Article

Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a... View Details

Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign Debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Europe

2008
Working Paper

Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India

By: Shawn A. Cole

This paper integrates theories of political budget cycles with theories of tactical electoral redistribution to test for political capture in a novel way. Studying banks in India, I find that government-owned bank lending tracks the electoral cycle, with agricultural... View Details

Keywords: Agribusiness; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Political Elections; State Ownership; Banking Industry; India

2014
Working Paper

Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

By the end of 2013, the share of government debt held by the domestic banking sectors of Eurozone countries was more than twice its 2007 level. We show that this type of increasing reliance on the domestic banking sector for absorbing government bonds generates a... View Details

Keywords: Credit Cycles; Sovereign Debt; Financial Repression; Sovereign Finance; Greece

2011
Working Paper

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time-series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

March 2014
Article

Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

Working Paper

Covenant-Light Contracts and Creditor Coordination

By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

In 2015, 70% of newly issued leveraged loans had weaker enforcement features, called covenant-light or "cov-lite"; this is nearly a three-time increase in cov-lite issuance compared to a previous peak in 2007. We evaluate whether this development can be attributed to... View Details

Keywords: Credit Cycles; Loan Contracts; Debt Covenants; Contracts; Financing and Loans; Credit; Borrowing and Debt

25 Feb 2020
News

Case Study: The Credit Bureau

the building manager project on a tablet what your apartment would look like furnished by Mobley. The furniture ultimately becomes a line item added to your monthly bill. That kind of B2B2C play is easily scaled, Ramírez says, but it’s a much longer selling View Details

Keywords: Jen McFarland Flint; Real Estate

August 2006
Article

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann

In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management