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- 2019
- Working Paper
Managing Churn to Maximize Profits
By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability, or their responsiveness to a... View Details
Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-020, September 2013. (Revised December 2019. Forthcoming at Marketing Science.)
- September 2023
- Article
Customer Churn and Intangible Capital
By: Scott R. Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco Sammon
Intangible capital is a crucial and growing piece of firms’ capital structure, but many of its distinct components are difficult to measure. We develop and make available several new firm-level metrics regarding a key component of intangible capital – firms’ customer... View Details
Keywords: Customer Base; Transaction Data; Customer Churn; Intangible Capital; Capital Structure; Measurement and Metrics; Customers
Baker, Scott R., Brian Baugh, and Marco Sammon. "Customer Churn and Intangible Capital." Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics 1, no. 3 (September 2023): 447–505.
- June 2016
- Teaching Note
HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI
By: Jill Avery, Asis Martinez Jerez and Thomas Steenburgh
HubSpot, a web marketing startup selling inbound marketing software to small- and medium-sized businesses, is under pressure from its venture capital partners to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. The B2B SaaS company is in the... View Details
- September–October 2020
- Article
Managing Churn to Maximize Profits
By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a... View Details
Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Marketing Science 39, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 956–973.
- July–August 2013
- Article
A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings
By: Eva Ascarza and Bruce G.S. Hardie
As firms become more customer-centric, concepts such as customer equity come to the fore. Any serious attempt to quantify customer equity requires modeling techniques that can provide accurate multiperiod forecasts of customer behavior. Although a number of researchers... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Retention; Contractual Settings; Access Services; Hidden Markov Models; RFM; Latent Variable Models; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior
Ascarza, Eva, and Bruce G.S. Hardie. "A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings." Marketing Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2013): 570–590.
- January 2010 (Revised March 2013)
- Case
HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI
By: F. Asis Martinez Jerez, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery and Lisa Brem
HubSpot, a web marketing startup is under pressure from VCs to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. In the case, students explore the drivers of customer churn and uncover opportunities to increase customer retention across the... View Details
Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Happiness; Consulting Industry
Martinez Jerez, F. Asis, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery, and Lisa Brem. "HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI." Harvard Business School Case 110-052, January 2010. (Revised March 2013.)
- 10 Oct 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Managing Churn to Maximize Profits
- 06 Jul 2020
- Research & Ideas
The Right Way to Manage Customer Churn for Maximum Profit
offering them incentives or deals to stay before they leave. “Focusing on retaining higher-spending customers, even if they aren’t as likely to leave, can increase the total profit a company can reap.” As Gupta describes in Managing Churn... View Details
- January 2024
- Exercise
Treasure Hunt: Identifying Valuable Churned Customers
- October 2022
- Article
Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective
By: Blaine Landis, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang and Robert W. Krause
One of the classic relationships in personality psychology is that extraversion is associated with emerging as an informal leader. However, recent findings raise questions about the longevity of extraverted individuals as emergent leaders. Here, we adopt a social... View Details
Keywords: Extraversion; Social Networks; Emergent Leadership; Leadership Development; Personal Characteristics; Perception
Landis, Blaine, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Dan J. Wang, and Robert W. Krause. "Revisiting Extraversion and Leadership Emergence: A Social Network Churn Perspective." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 123, no. 4 (October 2022): 811–829.
- January 2024
- Supplement
Treasure Hunt: Identifying Valuable Churned Customers
Torti, Sara McKinley. "Treasure Hunt: Identifying Valuable Churned Customers." Harvard Business School Supplement 824-704, January 2024.
- Article
The Perils of Proactive Churn Prevention Using Plan Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment
By: Eva Ascarza, Raghuram Iyengar and Martin Schleicher
Facing the issue of increasing customer churn, many service firms have begun recommending pricing plans to their customers. One reason behind this type of retention campaign is that customers who subscribe to a plan suitable for them should be less likely to churn... View Details
Keywords: Churn/retention; Field Experiment; Pricing; Tariff/plan Choice; Targeting; Customer Relationship Management; Price; Performance Effectiveness
Ascarza, Eva, Raghuram Iyengar, and Martin Schleicher. "The Perils of Proactive Churn Prevention Using Plan Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 53, no. 1 (February 2016): 46–60.
- May 2006
- Article
Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models
By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
- Research Summary
Overview
By: Eva Ascarza
Professor Ascarza’s research primarily focuses on providing researchers and marketers a better understanding of how to manage customer retention so as to reduce churn and increase firm’s profitability. She addresses these issues by building empirical models of customer... View Details
- June 23, 2021
- Article
Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story
By: Eva Ascarza
When it comes to churn prevention, marketers traditionally start by identifying which customers are most likely to churn, and then running A/B tests to determine whether a proposed retention intervention will be effective at retaining those high-risk customers. While... View Details
Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Targeting; Market Research; Marketing; Investment Return; Customers; Retention; Research
Ascarza, Eva. "Research: When A/B Testing Doesn't Tell You the Whole Story." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (June 23, 2021).
- 2020
- Working Paper
Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes
By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we... View Details
Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
Yang, Jeremy, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon, and Sinan Aral. "Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes." Working Paper, October 2020.
- February 2018
- Article
Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective.
By: Eva Ascarza
Companies in a variety of sectors are increasingly managing customer churn proactively, generally by detecting customers at the highest risk of churning and targeting retention efforts towards them. While there is a vast literature on developing churn prediction models... View Details
Keywords: Retention/churn; Proactive Churn Management; Field Experiments; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Risk Management
Ascarza, Eva. "Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 55, no. 1 (February 2018): 80–98.
- March 2018
- Article
In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions
By: Eva Ascarza, Scott A. Neslin, Oded Netzer, Zachery Anderson, Peter S. Fader, Sunil Gupta, Bruce Hardie, Aurelie Lemmens, Barak Libai, David T. Neal, Foster Provost and Rom Schrift
In today’s turbulent business environment, customer retention presents a significant challenge for many service companies. Academics have generated a large body of research that addresses part of that challenge—with a particular focus on predicting customer churn.... View Details
Ascarza, Eva, Scott A. Neslin, Oded Netzer, Zachery Anderson, Peter S. Fader, Sunil Gupta, Bruce Hardie, Aurelie Lemmens, Barak Libai, David T. Neal, Foster Provost, and Rom Schrift. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions." Special Issue on 2016 Choice Symposium. Customer Needs and Solutions 5, nos. 1-2 (March 2018): 65–81.
- January–February 2018
- Article
Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye
By: Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Bruce G.S. Hardie
We investigate the increasingly common business setting in which companies face the possibility of both observed and unobserved customer attrition (i.e., “overt” and “silent” churn) in the same pool of customers. This is the case for many online-based services where... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Retention; Attrition; Customer Base Analysis; Hidden Markov Models; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior
Ascarza, Eva, Oded Netzer, and Bruce G.S. Hardie. "Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye." Marketing Science 37, no. 1 (January–February 2018): 54–77.
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.