Certainty Effect - Publications - Faculty & Research

Article

Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward Positivity and Certainty

By: David P. Daniels and Julian Zlatev

Biases influence important decisions, but little is known about whether and how individuals try to exploit others’ biases in strategic interactions. Choice architects—that is, people who present choices to others—must often decide between presenting choice sets with... View Details

Keywords: Nudges; Biases; Strategic Decision Making; Social Influence; Choice Architects; Choice Architecture; Reflection Effect; Certainty Effect; Loss Aversion; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence

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Article

Believe Me, I Have No Idea What I Am Talking About: The Effects of Source Certainty on Consumer Involvement and Persuasion

By: Uma R. Karmarkar and Zakary L. Tormala

This research explores the effect of source certainty-that is, the level of certainty expressed by a message source-on persuasion. The authors propose an incongruity hypothesis, suggesting that source certainty effects depend on perceived source expertise. In three... View Details

Keywords: Research; Experience and Expertise; Risk and Uncertainty; Consumer Behavior; Performance Expectations; Interests; Power and Influence

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24 Sep 2014
Op-Ed

The Climate Needs Aggressive CEO Leadership

Corporations are facing great uncertainty. For the world to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the United States eventually will have to put a price on carbon dioxide emissions, as has been done by Europe, parts of Canada, and California. To plan for the... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Toffel & Auden Schendler; Energy; Utilities

27 Feb 2023
Research & Ideas

How One Late Employee Can Hurt Your Business: Data from 25 Million Timecards

as well as signs that the increases were not one-time phenomena. As a result, "understanding the causes and effects [of lateness and absenteeism] should be a key priority of retailers." One tip for managers: Address the problems through... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand; Retail

12 May 2021
Book

The Hard Truth About Being a CEO

said he knew two things with certainty when he came onto a battleship: He was never going to get handed a cold cup of coffee, and he was never going to hear the whole truth. "You have to be open and candid and say, 'Look, tell me what you... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

04 Apr 2012
Research & Ideas

When Founders Recruit Friends and Family as Investors

certainty is almost never attained, said, "If you know that you won't lose their money, you should take it." In fact, whether a founder is willing to risk taking money from friends or family may be a good indicator of whether or... View Details

Keywords: by Noam Wasserman

13 Apr 2016
Research & Ideas

Why Your Company Wants to be a 'Cognitive Referent' (Hint: SpaceX)

mature industries, nascent markets offer little certainty and plenty of ambiguity—undefined customers, unclear products or features, uncertain customer demand, and even an ill defined set of competitors. Yet, for these startups to have... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Aerospace; Food & Beverage; Retail

06 Dec 2004
What Do You Think?

Why Do Managers Fail to Act on Their Predictions?

short run versus large costs of unknowable certainty in the future. As examples of predictable surprises, they suggest such things as the rise of terrorism, compromises of auditor independence (and its implications for the general decline... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

15 May 2020
Research & Ideas

Find Your Pragmatic Path through Radical Uncertainty

believe those who claim to have definitive answers to these big questions. The data to answer most corona virus questions with certainty doesn’t exist. We won’t know for five years if immunity lasts five years. We can’t understand... View Details

Keywords: by Howard Stevenson, Eugene B. Kogan, and Shirley Spence

09 Jan 2014
Research & Ideas

The Entrepreneurs Who Invented Economic Forecasting

In the severe economic, social, and scientific turbulence churning at the dawn of the twentieth century, people were eager for any semblance of stability and predictability. From this need for certainty emerged a group of entrepreneurs... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

25 Apr 2012
What Do You Think?

How Will the “Age of Big Data” Affect Management?

for jobs in data analytics. In addition to less wasteful marketing efforts (we should be able to know, for example, "which half" of advertising is effective, thereby making an old marketing saw obsolete), they should produce more View Details

Keywords: Re: James L. Heskett

19 Mar 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, March 19, 2019

innovations might impact—and be impacted by—workers, consumers, organizations, and society. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55845 March 2019 Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes Choice Architects Reveal a Bias Toward... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

12 May 2008
Research & Ideas

Accounting Information as Political Currency

expected the accounting effect on election outcomes to be minor. When we ran the tests, we found that even a one standard-deviation change in our measure of earnings management could affect election outcomes in some cases. Q: Were you... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

23 Aug 2004
Research & Ideas

New Challenges for Long-Term Investors

effects on the standard of living of a long-term investor. Investors seeking to finance their long-term spending needs might look at bonds and equities in a very different light. Perhaps the best way to see the relevance of reinvestment... View Details

Keywords: by Ann Cullen

06 Jun 2005
Research & Ideas

Don’t Listen to “Yes”

outlines concrete steps that managers at all levels can take to spark positive conflict and make sure that all views get a fair hearing, and he outlines as well a fair and open process for making more effective decisions. "Keeping... View Details