Publications

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

August 2018
Article

Extrapolation and Bubbles

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Extrapolation; Volume; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2009
Article

Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles

By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel

We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details

Keywords: Asset Price Bubbles; Investment Experience; Investor Age; Trend Chasing; Investment; Experience and Expertise; Age; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Information Technology; Stocks

August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
Case

Trouble with a Bubble

By: Tom Nicholas

Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Stock Market; Great Depression; Irving Fisher; Information Technology; Organizational Change and Adaptation; History; Financial Markets; Performance; Labor and Management Relations; Equity; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; United States

Educators

Purchase

June 2008
Article

'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?

By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith

We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details

Keywords: Experimental Economics; Asset Markets; Bubbles; Price Bubble; Financial Markets

18 Feb 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Diagnostic Bubbles

Keywords: by Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer; Financial Services

02 Mar 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Extrapolation and Bubbles

Keywords: by Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer

20 Mar 2017
Working Paper Summaries

Bubbles for Fama

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You

March 2012
Article

The Incentive Bubble

By: Mihir Desai

The past three decades have seen American capitalism quietly transformed by a single, powerful idea—that financial markets are a suitable tool for measuring performance and structuring compensation. Stock instruments for managers, high-powered incentive contracts for... View Details

Keywords: Economic Systems; Financial Markets; Executive Compensation; Motivation and Incentives; Corporate Governance; Equality and Inequality; Human Capital; United States

July 2001 (Revised June 2005)
Case

Japan: Beyond the Bubble

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Rebecca Evans

By the summer of 2001, Japan's economy had been generally stagnant for nearly 10 years--since the collapse of the bubble economy in 1990-91. The development strategy that drove the nation during earlier decades was fulfilled, and by 1989 Japan's GDP per capita exceeded... View Details

Keywords: History; Strategy; Development Economics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Macroeconomics; Japan

Educators

Purchase

2008
Working Paper

Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles

By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel

We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Stocks; Information Technology; Price Bubble; Asset Management; Experience and Expertise

SSRN

November 2001 (Revised January 2002)
Case

Monster.com: Success Beyond the Bubble

In 2001, Monster.com was an Internet site that, among other things, connected individuals seeking jobs with organizations wanting to hire. Its substitutes included help wanted classified advertising in newspapers. Monster was one of the few Internet companies that had... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Business Growth and Maturation; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Price Bubble; Growth and Development Strategy; Employment Industry