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- Faculty Publications (71)
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- 2018
- Working Paper
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25399, December 2018.
- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details
Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Extrapolation and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (August 2018): 203–227.
- September 2021
- Article
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- August 2009
- Article
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details
Keywords: Asset Price Bubbles; Investment Experience; Investor Age; Trend Chasing; Investment; Experience and Expertise; Age; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Information Technology; Stocks
Greenwood, Robin, and Stefan Nagel. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 93, no. 2 (August 2009): 239–258. (formerly NBER Working Paper No. 14111, June 2008.)
- August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
- Case
Trouble with a Bubble
By: Tom Nicholas
Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Stock Market; Great Depression; Irving Fisher; Information Technology; Organizational Change and Adaptation; History; Financial Markets; Performance; Labor and Management Relations; Equity; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; United States
Nicholas, Tom. "Trouble with a Bubble." Harvard Business School Case 808-067, August 2007. (Revised June 2020.)
- June 2008
- Article
'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?
By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith
We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details
Hussam, Reshmaan, David Porter, and Vernon Smith. "'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?" American Economic Review 98, no. 3 (June 2008): 924–937.
- 18 Feb 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Diagnostic Bubbles
- 02 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Extrapolation and Bubbles
- 20 Mar 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Bubbles for Fama
- March 2012
- Article
The Incentive Bubble
By: Mihir Desai
The past three decades have seen American capitalism quietly transformed by a single, powerful idea—that financial markets are a suitable tool for measuring performance and structuring compensation. Stock instruments for managers, high-powered incentive contracts for... View Details
Keywords: Economic Systems; Financial Markets; Executive Compensation; Motivation and Incentives; Corporate Governance; Equality and Inequality; Human Capital; United States
Desai, Mihir. "The Incentive Bubble." Harvard Business Review 90, no. 3 (March 2012).
- July 2001 (Revised June 2005)
- Case
Japan: Beyond the Bubble
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Rebecca Evans
By the summer of 2001, Japan's economy had been generally stagnant for nearly 10 years--since the collapse of the bubble economy in 1990-91. The development strategy that drove the nation during earlier decades was fulfilled, and by 1989 Japan's GDP per capita exceeded... View Details
Keywords: History; Strategy; Development Economics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Macroeconomics; Japan
Vietor, Richard H.K., and Rebecca Evans. "Japan: Beyond the Bubble." Harvard Business School Case 702-004, July 2001. (Revised June 2005.)
- 2008
- Working Paper
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details
Keywords: Investment; Stocks; Information Technology; Price Bubble; Asset Management; Experience and Expertise
Greenwood, Robin, and Stefan Nagel. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14111, June 2008.
- November 2001 (Revised January 2002)
- Case
Monster.com: Success Beyond the Bubble
In 2001, Monster.com was an Internet site that, among other things, connected individuals seeking jobs with organizations wanting to hire. Its substitutes included help wanted classified advertising in newspapers. Monster was one of the few Internet companies that had... View Details
Keywords: Internet and the Web; Business Growth and Maturation; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Price Bubble; Growth and Development Strategy; Employment Industry
Hallowell, Roger H., and Cate Reavis. "Monster.com: Success Beyond the Bubble." Harvard Business School Case 802-024, November 2001. (Revised January 2002.)
- Mar 2012
- Article
The Incentive Bubble
will trigger large compensation packages, real capital is being misallocated. And when relative compensation is as distorted as it has been by the financial-incentive bubble over the past several decades, one can only assume that human... View Details
- January 1986 (Revised October 1990)
- Case
Intel Bubble Memory (B)
Pava, Calvin H P. "Intel Bubble Memory (B)." Harvard Business School Case 486-049, January 1986. (Revised October 1990.)
- 01 Mar 2012
- News
The Incentive Bubble
- 05 Mar 2014
- What Do You Think?
When Will the Next Dot.com Bubble Burst?
Summing Up Is "Collateral Damage" from Economic Bubbles Inevitable, Necessary, and Useful? According to the old saw, markets are made by differences of opinion. If that's the case, there is a real market around the question of... View Details
- January 1986 (Revised October 1990)
- Case
Intel Bubble Memory (A)
Pava, Calvin H P. "Intel Bubble Memory (A)." Harvard Business School Case 486-048, January 1986. (Revised October 1990.)