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- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
- August 2020
- Article
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details
Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
- Research Summary
Time-Varying Volatility Risk Premia
This paper provides evidence for the existence of time-varying volatility risk premia. In doing so, it examines the evolution of the implied volatility bias in the S&P 100 from 1986-2006. Additionally, the paper proves three new results regarding the limiting... View Details
- 18 Oct 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details
Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- 2021
- Working Paper
The Green Bonding Hypothesis: How Do Green Bonds Enhance the Credibility of Environmental Commitments?
By: Shirley Lu
This paper proposes and provides evidence on a green bonding hypothesis, where green bonds act as a commitment device that subjects firms to institutions holding them accountable to their environmental promises. I find that green-bond issuers face higher climate change... View Details
Keywords: Bonding Hypothesis; Sustainable Finance; Climate Change; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Bonds; Corporate Accountability
Lu, Shirley. "The Green Bonding Hypothesis: How Do Green Bonds Enhance the Credibility of Environmental Commitments?" SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3898909, December 2021.
- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138, no. 4 (November 2023): 2327–2389.
- 27 May 2011
- Working Paper Summaries
An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds
Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
- 12 Mar 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
- July 2003 (Revised January 2004)
- Case
Swedish Lottery Bonds
Profiling nonsystematic risk for a bond investor, the case describes lottery bond issues by the Swedish National Debt Office (SNDO). Swedish lottery bonds are a specific type of financial fixed income instrument for Swedish retail investors. The distinctive feature of... View Details
Keywords: Bonds; Business and Government Relations; Public Administration Industry; Retail Industry; Sweden
Chacko, George C., Peter A. Hecht, Vincent Dessain, and Anders Sjoman. "Swedish Lottery Bonds." Harvard Business School Case 204-048, July 2003. (Revised January 2004.)
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
- 11 Sep 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Keywords: by Luis M. Viceira
- 2013
- Working Paper
Securities Litigation Risk for Foreign Companies Listed in the U.S.
By: Beiting Cheng, Suraj Srinivasan and Gwen Yu
We study securities litigation risk faced by foreign firms listed on U.S. exchanges. We take into account not only the propensity for foreign firms to commit violations of U.S. securities laws but also the costs that investors face when suing foreign firms. We find... View Details
Keywords: Litigation Risk; Cross Listing; Bonding; 10b-5; Securities Litigation; U.S.Listing; Class Action; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Globalized Firms and Management; Ethics; Lawsuits and Litigation; United States
Cheng, Beiting, Suraj Srinivasan, and Gwen Yu. "Securities Litigation Risk for Foreign Companies Listed in the U.S." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-036, October 2012. (Revised March 2014.)
- 13 Jul 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
Economic Catastrophe Bonds
- 2009
- Working Paper
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
- September 2004 (Revised January 2006)
- Case
Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re
In 2002, Swiss Re, the world's second--largest insurance company, is considering securitizing parts of its risk portfolio in the capital markets. This would be a first for the company that, until then, had never transferred risk off its balance sheet. Peter Giessmann,... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Bonds; Natural Disasters; Insurance; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Insurance Industry; Switzerland
Chacko, George C., Peter A. Hecht, Vincent Dessain, and Anders Sjoman. "Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re." Harvard Business School Case 205-006, September 2004. (Revised January 2006.)
- 2011
- Working Paper
Fractionalization and the Municipal Bond Market
We study the impact of ethnic and religious fractionalization on the U.S. municipal debt market and find that issuers from more ethnically and religiously fractionalized counties pay higher yields on their municipal debt. A two standard deviation increase in religious... View Details
Keywords: Ethnicity Characteristics; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment Return; Geographic Location; City; Religion; United States
Bergstresser, Daniel, Randolph Cohen, and Siddharth Shenai. "Fractionalization and the Municipal Bond Market." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-128, June 2011.
- June 2013
- Article
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)