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  • 2024
  • Working Paper

Charting (and Updating) the Path: A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial Learning

By: Joshua L. Krieger
This chapter explores two distinct modes of entrepreneurial learning: assessing venture viability and choosing between alternative development paths. It introduces a framework for decomposing venture viability into technological feasibility, commercial potential and... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Learning
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  • Article

Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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  • 2016
  • Article

Does volunteering improve well-being?

By: A.V. Whillans, Scott C. Seider, Lihan Chen, Ryan J. Dwyer, Sarah Novick, Kathryn J. Gramigna, Brittany A. Mitchell, Victoria Savalei, Sally S. Dickerson and Elizabeth W. Dunn
Does volunteering causally improve well-being? To empirically test this question, we examined one instantiation of volunteering that is common at post-secondary institutions across North America: community service learning (CSL). CSL is a form of experiential learning... View Details
Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; College Students; Bayesian Statistics; Education; Well-being
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  • March 2019
  • Article

A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests

By: Shunyuan Zhang, Param Singh and Anindya Ghose
We investigate the long-term impact of competing against superstars in crowdsourcing contests. Using a unique 50-month longitudinal panel data set on 1677 software design crowdsourcing contests, we illustrate a learning effect where participants are able to improve... View Details
Keywords: Crowdsourcing Contests; Superstar Effect; Bayesian Learning; Utility; Economics Of Information System; Dynamic Structural Model; Dynamic Programming; Markov Chain; Monte Carlo; Learning; Competition; Performance Improvement
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  • April 2024
  • Article

Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM

By: Ryan Dew, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Nachum Sicherman
Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines—which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal... View Details
Keywords: Ride-sharing; Routine; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Segmentation
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    Zhongming Jiang

    Zhongming Jiang is a Ph.D. student in Marketing (Quantitative) at Harvard Business School. His methodological interests include Bayesian {nonparametrics, causal inference, deep learning}, and probabilistic machine learning. Substantively, he is interested... View Details

    • 2023
    • Working Paper

    The Customer Journey as a Source of Information

    By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer
    In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access, firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions. However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD... View Details
    Keywords: Customer Journey; Privacy; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Customer Focus and Relationships
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      Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy

      Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases... View Details
      • 2023
      • Article

      Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy

      By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov
      Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a... View Details
      Keywords: Product Launch; Mathematical Methods; Product Development
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      • 01 Dec 2015
      • First Look

      December 1, 2015

      salesperson heterogeneity by using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to estimate our model. We find conditional compensation in the form of quota-bonus incentives to improve performance. We find little evidence that effectiveness differs... View Details
      Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
      • Web

      Program Requirements - Doctoral

      Learning (Statistics 195) Probability Theory (Statistics 210) Statistical Inference (Statistics 211) Bayesian Data Analysis (Statistics 220) Incomplete Multivariate Data (Statistics 232) Sequential Decision... View Details
      • 27 Feb 2012
      • Research & Ideas

      When Researchers Cheat (Just a Little)

      John calls them, such as selectively reporting studies that achieved positive results, to "academic felonies" such as falsifying data. Measuring Truthfulness The participants' scores were determined by a truth-telling algorithm developed by coauthor Prelec,... View Details
      Keywords: by Katie Johnston; Education
      • Web

      Entrepreneurship - Faculty & Research

      Regina E., and Duke Rohlen. "A New Model for Funding Healthcare Innovation." Cold Call (podcast), Harvard Business Review Group, December 10, 2024. Charting (and Updating) the Path: A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial View Details
      • 11 Dec 2007
      • First Look

      First Look: December 11, 2007

      and induces safer behavior that becomes the status quo for future choices (the initial history effect). While both effects operate indirectly through choice inertia, the primacy effect also operates directly on choices. This pattern of behavior is inconsistent with the... View Details
      Keywords: Martha Lagace
      • 23 Oct 2018
      • First Look

      New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

      Data and Machine Learning By: Guo, Xiaojia, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Bert De Reyck Abstract—Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a predictive system that generates quantile forecasts of transfer... View Details
      Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
      • 30 Oct 2018
      • First Look

      New Research and Ideas, October 30, 2018

      Developing Theory Using Machine Learning Methods By: Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Ryan Allen, and Michael G. Endres Abstract—We describe how to employ machine learning (ML) methods in theory development. Compared... View Details
      Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
      • 26 Apr 2011
      • First Look

      First Look: April 26

      expected profits. Using an extension to the newsvendor model, we focus on a relatively common scenario in which the firm's investor has imperfect information concerning the quality of the firm's investment opportunities. We apply Perfect View Details
      Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
      • 05 Oct 2017
      • Blog Post

      Working as a Software Engineer in Industrial Technology

      out the softer skills required for effective management, so I wanted to balance that by using the summer to hone my engineering skillset.  I spent the summer building machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms that serve as a... View Details
      Keywords: Technology
      • 13 Jun 2017
      • Blog Post

      7 Reasons Why the New MS/MBA: Engineering Sciences Program at Harvard is Next Level

      companies now. i.e. This is bigger than just you. Interested in learning more about the MS/MBA? Here are four things you need to know.  -- Anita Mehrotra is a Class of 2018 HBS student (Section I!) and was previously a data scientist at... View Details
      • 23 Jan 2008
      • First Look

      First Look: January 23, 2008

      range of variation in beauty and hygiene ideals. What Have We Learned from Market Design? Author:Alvin E. Roth Periodical:Hahn Lecture. Economic Journal (March 2008) Abstract This essay discusses some things we have View Details
      Keywords: Martha Lagace