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March 2022
Article

Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov

Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods

March 2021
Article

Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment

By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details

Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments

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2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

May 2011
Article

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias

22 Oct 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Estimating Causal Effects in the Presence of Partial Interference Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

Keywords: by Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov

Article

Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details

Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina

August 2021
Article

Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas

By: F.M. Hollenbach, I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward and A. Volfovsky

Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use... View Details

Keywords: Missing Data; Bayesian Statistics; Imputation; Categorical Data; Estimation

2013
Dissertation

Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics

By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta

Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers... View Details

Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups

June 2018
Article

Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged

By: Clarence Lee, Elie Ofek and Thomas Steenburgh

We study how digital service firms can develop an active customer base, focusing on two questions. First, how does the way that customers use the service postadoption to meet their own needs (personal usage) and to interact with one another (social usage) vary across... View Details

Keywords: Customer Engagement; Adoption Routes; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Marketing; Bayesian Estimation; Customers; Communication; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Internet and the Web; Analytics and Data Science

Article

Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details

Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology

2019
Working Paper

Does Apple Anchor a Shopping Mall? The Effect of the Technology Stores on the Formation of Market Structure

By: Doug J. Chung, Kyoungwon Seo and Reo Song

This study examines the effect of technology stores—company-owned Apple and Microsoft retail stores—on mall configuration. We formulate a structural model that considers the endogenous location decisions of retail stores, taking into account both market characteristics... View Details

Keywords: Apple Store; New Anchor Store; Discrete Game; Complete Information; Multiple Equilibria; GPGPU Technology; Simulator; Bayesian Estimation; Shopping Mall; Spillover

April 2024
Article

Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM

By: Ryan Dew, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Nachum Sicherman

Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines—which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal... View Details

Keywords: Ride-sharing; Routine; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Segmentation

Purchase

Article

Why, When, and How Much to Entertain Consumers in Advertisements?: A Web-based Facial Tracking Field Study

By: Thales Teixeira, Rosalind Picard and Rana el Kaliouby

The presence of positive entertainment (e.g., visual imagery, upbeat music, humor) in TV advertisements can make them more attractive and persuasive. However, little is known about the downsides of using too much entertainment. This research focuses on why, when, and... View Details

Keywords: Face-tracking; Entertainment; Television; Purchase Intent; Commercials; Facial Expressions; Marketing Communication; Advertising; Television Entertainment; Marketing; Advertising Industry

August 2017
Article

Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment

By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas

We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of... View Details

Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits

Teaching Interest

Marketing Models Doctoral Seminar

This course is a doctoral level course on Quantitative Marketing. We will cover methodological as well as substantive topics this semester. Methodological topics include: Choice models, Entry and Exit models, Dynamic structural models, Bayesian estimation methods... View Details

2015
Working Paper

Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment

By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas

We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of... View Details

Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Motivation and Incentives; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits

2009
Working Paper

Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?

By: Raghuram Iyengar, Sangman Han and Sunil Gupta

Social networks, such as Facebook and Myspace have witnessed a rapid growth in their membership. Some of these businesses have tried an advertising-based model with very limited success. However, these businesses have not fully explored the power of their members to... View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Network Effects; Sales; Power and Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Web Sites; South Korea