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(822)
- News (117)
- Research (623)
- Multimedia (2)
- Faculty Publications (318)
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- August 2009
- Article
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details
Keywords: Asset Price Bubbles; Investment Experience; Investor Age; Trend Chasing; Investment; Experience and Expertise; Age; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Information Technology; Stocks
Greenwood, Robin, and Stefan Nagel. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 93, no. 2 (August 2009): 239–258. (formerly NBER Working Paper No. 14111, June 2008.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25399, December 2018.
- September 2021
- Article
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
- January 2015
- Article
X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which... View Details
Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–24.
- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors... View Details
Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Extrapolation and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (August 2018): 203–227.
- June 2008
- Article
'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?
By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith
We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details
Hussam, Reshmaan, David Porter, and Vernon Smith. "'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?" American Economic Review 98, no. 3 (June 2008): 924–937.
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 18 Feb 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Diagnostic Bubbles
- August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
- Case
Trouble with a Bubble
By: Tom Nicholas
Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Stock Market; Great Depression; Irving Fisher; Information Technology; Organizational Change and Adaptation; History; Financial Markets; Performance; Labor and Management Relations; Equity; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; United States
Nicholas, Tom. "Trouble with a Bubble." Harvard Business School Case 808-067, August 2007. (Revised June 2020.)
- September 2018
- Article
Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao
We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, and Gordon Y. Liao. "Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets." Review of Financial Studies 31, no. 9 (September 2018): 3307–3343. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- Research Summary
Output and asset price fluctuations
What are the sources of business cycles? How are these shocks propagated in the economy? Why are their effects so persistent? How can we explain asset price fluctuations? How are shocks transmitted internationally?To study these questions, I have developed a series... View Details
- 2013
- Working Paper
Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention
By: Mark Seasholes, Terrence Hendershott, Sunny X. Li and Albert J. Menkveld
This paper studies the role that limited attention and inefficient risk sharing play in stock price deviations from the efficient prices at horizons from one day to one month. We expand the Due (2010) slow-moving capital model to analyze multiple groups of investors... View Details
Keywords: Transitory Volatility; Limited Attention; Individuals; Market Makers; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Volatility
Seasholes, Mark, Terrence Hendershott, Sunny X. Li, and Albert J. Menkveld. "Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention." Working Paper, November 2013. (2nd round at the Journal of Finance.)
- 02 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Extrapolation and Bubbles
- Article
The Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: André Perold
Perold, André. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model." Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 3–24.
- 20 Mar 2017
- Working Paper Summaries
Bubbles for Fama
- spring 1989
- Article
Asset Price Expectations: A Summary
By: K. A. Froot
Froot, K. A. "Asset Price Expectations: A Summary." NBER Reporter (spring 1989).
- Research Summary
Overcoming Large-N, Small-T Issues in Asset Pricing Tests
The large-N, small-T (i.e. large cross-section, short time series) nature of our asset data presents serious estimation problems for empirical asset pricing. In response, the literature tests asset pricing models against 10-25 test assets or portfolios. A... View Details
- 1998
- Article
Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods
By: Malcolm Baker, E. S. Mayfield and John Parsons
This paper provides an introduction to alternative models of uncertain commodity prices. A model of commodity price movements is the engine around which any valuation methodology for commodity production projects is built, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) models or... View Details
Keywords: Asset Pricing; Goods and Commodities; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Production; Projects; Cash Flow
Baker, Malcolm, E. S. Mayfield, and John Parsons. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods." Energy Journal 19, no. 1 (1998): 115–148.
- September 1973
- Article
An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model." Econometrica 41, no. 5 (September 1973): 867–887. (Chapter 15 in Continuous-Time Finance.)
- 2008
- Working Paper
Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles
By: Robin Greenwood and Stefan Nagel
We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the... View Details
Keywords: Investment; Stocks; Information Technology; Price Bubble; Asset Management; Experience and Expertise
Greenwood, Robin, and Stefan Nagel. "Inexperienced Investors and Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14111, June 2008.