Publications

Educators

April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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2019
Working Paper

Intelligent Artificiality: Algorithmic Microfoundations for Strategic Problem Solving

By: Mihnea Moldoveanu

This paper introduces algorithmic micro-foundations for formulating and solving strategic problems. It shows how the languages and disciplines of theoretical computer science, “artificial intelligence,” and computational complexity theory can be used to devise a set of... View Details

Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Analysis; Strategy; Framework; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Mathematical Methods

October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
Background Note

Calculating Free Cash Flows

By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein

Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods

Educators

01 Mar 2015
News

The Next Big Swing

MLB Advanced Media’s new Statcast system provides measures for every play, arming analysts like Tippett with a wealth of new data. (Courtesy of MLB.com) Tom Tippett’s love of sports data began at age seven, when his mom bought him a stat-tracking book so that he could... View Details

Keywords: Andrew Clark; Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries; Arts, Entertainment; Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services; Professional Services; Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services; Information

10 Feb 2016

Peek Weekend Information Session at Smith

Join Harvard Business School MBA Admissions at 5 PM at the Campus Center (room 103/104) to learn about Peek Weekend. Peek participants spend three days living on the HBS campus, trying out the case method of study, meeting current... View Details

November 1974 (Revised November 1977)
Background Note

Developing Forecasts with the Aid of Regression Analysis

By: Paul A. Vatter

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

2016
Working Paper

Refugee Resettlement

By: David Delacretaz, Scott Duke Kominers and Alexander Teytelboym

Over 100,000 refugees are permanently resettled from refugee camps to hosting countries every year. Nevertheless, refugee resettlement processes in most countries are ad hoc, accounting for neither the priorities of hosting communities nor the preferences of refugees... View Details

Keywords: Refugees; Marketplace Matching; Mathematical Methods

October 2012 (Revised October 2016)
Case

Predilytics

By: Robert F. Higgins and Annelena Lobb

The management team at Predilytics, a healthcare analytics firm, must decide whether to accept a Series A venture capital financing deal. The company provided analytic services to healthcare plans, typically Medicare Advantage plans, in efforts to draw conclusions from... View Details

Keywords: Analytics; Healthcare; Medicare; Health Care and Treatment; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry; New England; United States

Educators

2008
Chapter

Moving to a New Global Competitiveness Index

By: Michael E. Porter, Mercedes Delgado-Garcia, Christian H.M. Ketels and Scott Stern

Keywords: Globalization; Competitive Advantage; Mathematical Methods

August 2006
Article

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann

In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management

01 Mar 2023
News

The Life Choices and Legacy of Muhammad Ali

23 Aug 2022
News

Management Lessons from the Sinking of the SS El Faro

03 Jun 2021
News

Tulsa Race Massacre Is Now an M.B.A. Case Study at Harvard

28 Oct 2021

How my Leadership Development Program prepared me for Harvard Business School

Please join us for a virtual panel discussion highlighting Harvard Business School (HBS) students and recent alumni who worked in various Leadership Development Programs pre-HBS. Hear how their pre-MBA experiences prepared them for the HBS case View Details

2025
Working Paper

Incentive-Compatible Recovery from Manipulated Signals, with Applications to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure

By: Jason Milionis, Jens Ernstberger, Joseph Bonneau, Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden

We introduce the first formal model capturing the elicitation of unverifiable information from a party (the "source") with implicit signals derived by other players (the "observers"). Our model is motivated in part by applications in decentralized physical... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Infrastructure; Information Infrastructure

2021
Working Paper

Impact Investing: A Theory of Financing Social Enterprises

By: Benjamin N. Roth

I present a model of financing social enterprises to delineate the role of impact investors relative to “pure” philanthropists. I characterize the optimal scale and structure of a social enterprise when financed by grants, and when financed by investments. Impact... View Details

Keywords: Impact Investing; Social Entrepreneurship; Finance; Investment; Mathematical Methods

SSRN

Article

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose and R.L. Winkler

From forecasting competitions to conditional value-at-risk requirements, the use of multiple quantile assessments is growing in practice. To evaluate them, we use a rule from the general class of proper scoring rules for a forecaster’s multiple quantiles of a single... View Details

Keywords: Forecast; Aggregation; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods

January 2000
Article

Maxmin Expected Utility through Statewise Combinations

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren

This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. The key axioms are stated using statewise combinations as in Gul (1992). View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Mathematical Methods