Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

12 Apr 2012
News

HBS Welcomes Eleven Alumni Startups

name, and cast your vote to the right to predict the winner. asia-pacific HBS Club of Shanghai Sophia Shing, MBA 1997 Founder Little Teacher mobile language learning canada HBS Club of Toronto Jennifer Lee Koss, MBA 2008 Co-founder and... View Details

Keywords: Bulletin Staff; Alumni New Venture Contest

May 2005
Exercise

Forecasting the Adoption of E-books

By: Elie Ofek

Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption

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11 Mar 2014
First Look

First Look: March 11

predicted support for raising the minimum wage, suggesting that attitudes toward inequality may not translate into preferences for redistributive policies. Publisher's link:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

01 Jun 2014
News

Innovation: An Orchestra of One

technology that would adapt to my playing style in real time instead of forcing me to fit a recording." Chao was right. She found former concert oboist Christopher Raphael, now chair of computer science at Indiana University, who was using View Details

Keywords: Julia Hanna; Arts, Entertainment

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details

Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

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August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Decision Trees; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

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June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
Teaching Note

Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit? (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi

Teaching Note for 4217. View Details

Keywords: Market Research; Forecasting; Consumer Marketing; New Product Marketing; Product Lines; Merchandising; Branding; Research; Marketing Channels; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Brands and Branding

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02 Apr 2013
First Look

First Look: April 2

ratio and ROE. Applying the model to the cross-section of firms, we find that expected returns and expected profitability are highly persistent and time varying. Our fundamentals-implied estimates of expected returns across time horizons exhibit strong return View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

15 May 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, May 15, 2018

Purchase this case:https://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cbmp/product/618028 Harvard Business School Case 618-019 Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A) Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

August 2015 (Revised January 2017)
Technical Note

From Correlation to Causation

By: Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani

To make sound business decisions, managers must be comfortable with the concepts of correlation and causation. This background note provides an overview of correlation and causation using examples and explains why the former does not imply the latter. It also describes... View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Regression; Data Analytics; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Judgments

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April 2010
Teaching Note

Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham

Teaching Note to 4183 View Details

Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Price; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

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January 2011
Article

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

By: Derek Koehler, Rebecca White and Leslie K. John

Self-predictions are highly sensitive to current intentions but often largely insensitive to factors influencing the readiness with which those intentions are translated into future behavior. When such factors are under a person's control, they could be used to... View Details

Keywords: Planning; Saving; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

February 2004 (Revised April 2004)
Case

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, Inc., The

By: David F. Hawkins and Jacob Cohen

Analysts believe bankruptcy is a distinct possibility for A&P in the future. The company believes otherwise. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

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02 Aug 2011
First Look

First Look: August 2

http://www.people.hbs.edu/rchua/JIBS_Intercultural_trust.pdf Evolve (Again) Author:Rosabeth M. Kanter Publication:Harvard Business Review 89, nos. 7-8 (July-August 2011) Abstract Frenzy over social networks and interactive media can produce equally overhyped View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

April 1991 (Revised December 1997)
Case

Southland Corp. (A)

By: Richard S. Ruback

Examines the Thompson's $4.9 billion leveraged buyout of the Southland Corp. in 1987. As the original founders of Southland, the Thompsons were concerned about losing control over the company upon learning of the Belzberg family's acquiring interest. The teaching... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Governance Controls; Corporate Governance; Bids and Bidding; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Strategy; Cash Flow

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Web

Building and Sustaining a Successful Enterprise - Intensive - Course Catalog

Or why does this constitute a viable growth opportunity for the company? Then we ask students to think about what needs to be done. What actions can management take that will predictably lead to success? What problems might one View Details

2016
Book

Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services

By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

This book bridges the gap between what academics know, and what innovation stakeholders—from managers, to investors, to analysts, to consumers—need to know about how new products and services are expected to perform in the marketplace. The book develops a compelling... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Technology Diffusion; New Products; Customer Lifetime Value; Monetization Strategy; Social Influence; Innovation Adoption; Forecasting Demand; Commercialization; Marketing Strategy; Practice; Customer Value and Value Chain; Research; Innovation and Management; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development

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05 Oct 2022
News

Inside the Chip Shortage

Photo via Digital Chosun Photo via Digital Chosun The shortage of semiconductors that has hamstrung the automotive industry since 2020 isn’t over yet, and Renesas CEO Hidetoshi Shibata (MBA 2001) predicts the shortage will continue well... View Details

Keywords: Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing; Manufacturing

01 Jun 2001
News

High Stakes on the High Seas

In 1998, on the day after Christmas, 115 sailboats crossed the starting line in Sydney, Australia, bound for Tasmania, a 630-mile dash across the Bass Strait, one of the world’s most treacherous bodies of water. The fabled Sydney to Hobart race went ahead despite View Details

Keywords: Arts, Entertainment

November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Science Technology Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry

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