predictions - Publications - Faculty & Research

27 Feb 2007
First Look

First Look: February 27, 2007

various mechanisms that are discussed in the theoretical literature on collective action. We argue that several of these intuitive theoretical arguments rely on special additional assumptions that are often not made clear. We then review the empirical work based on the... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

27 Jul 2019
Op-Ed

Does Facebook's Business Model Threaten Our Elections?

platform. Advertisers used that data to create psychographic profiles of potential customers that went beyond mere demographics to give insights into what they like and value. Studies have found that with just 10 “likes” an algorithm can View Details

Keywords: by George Riedel

28 Jun 2011
First Look

First Look: June 28

straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into prices. We document substantial return predictability from the set of easy-to-analyze... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Jul 2006
First Look

First Look: July 5, 2006

predictive and prescriptive implications, this theory contributes to the general notion that pricing might affect as much as capture perceived value. Paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/06-055.pdf Capital Structure with Risky Foreign... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Jan 2011
Op-Ed

Funding Unpredictability Around Stem-Cell Research Inflicts Heavy Cost on Scientific Progress

promising projects. Great people will leave basic research and move to more predictable pastures. And some great young people will decide not to go into research careers at all. The precipitous shift in the legal and regulatory... View Details

Keywords: by William Sahlman; Biotechnology; Health; Pharmaceutical

29 Jun 2015
HBS Case

Consumer-centered Health Care Depends on Accessible Medical Records

predict the health care needs of patients, continually enhance patient outcomes, and drive transformative solutions to import community access to health care. For example, using patient data including emergency department visits and... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman; Health; Technology

08 Oct 2013
First Look

First Look: October 8

returns across time horizons exhibit strong return predictability up to three years ahead and produce an aggregate equity term structure that tracks economic conditions. The implied term structure is upward sloping during normal or... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 5, 2010

and market-implied yields fell, and the ability of ratings to predict default deteriorated. We offer several possible explanations for these findings that are linked to existing theories. Download the paper:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Jun 2019
Research & Ideas

If Your Customers Don't Care What You Charge, What Should You Charge?

found, in the retail gas markets they studied, was that accounting for increased consumer inertia led to an estimated 3.3 percent post-merger price increase, compared with the 5.9 percent increase predicted by a static model typically... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz; Energy

06 Oct 2011
What Do You Think?

How Will the ‘Moneyball Generation’ Influence Management?

dashboard, "indirect goals" that help predict and explain financial performance beyond the "direct goal" of profit. These might include the speed of aircraft turnaround in the airline industry, the conversion rate of... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

11 Sep 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, September 11, 2018

explains changing bond risks but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=45672 Full Substitutability By: Hatfield, John William, Scott... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

15 May 2012
First Look

First Look: May 15

the social objective function, tagging generates costs that must be weighed against the benefits it generates through conventional channels. Only tags that are sufficiently predictive of ability, such as disability status, will be used.... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

04 Jan 2010
Research & Ideas

Best of HBS Working Knowledge 2009

wild." Key concepts include: The harmful side effects of goal setting are far more serious and systematic than prior work has acknowledged. Goal setting harms organizations in systematic and predictable ways. The use of goal setting... View Details

Keywords: by Staff

11 Mar 2008
First Look

First Look: March 11, 2008

technological outcome predicted by purely economic or organizational models. We also show that interactions of producers, users and institutions shape the development of collective frames around the meaning of new technologies. We thus... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

14 Aug 2007
First Look

First Look: August 14, 2007

Behavioral research suggests that human learning in some multi-agent systems can be predicted with surprisingly simple "foresight-free" models. The current note discusses the implications of this research, and its relationship... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

19 Sep 2006
First Look

First Look: September 19, 2006

channels will fuel a shift in consumption away from hits to a much larger number of lower-selling niche products. While the long-tail view predicts an increase in the heterogeneity of consumption patterns, the well-known superstar effect... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

12 Sep 2005
Research & Ideas

The Broadband Explosion: Thinking About a Truly Interactive World

non-obvious, second-order effects—things we can't see clearly right now. The human tendency in trying to predict what will happen in the future is to extrapolate in a straight line from today. So we imagine doing more of what we do with... View Details

Keywords: by Sara Grant; Technology; Communications; Telecommunications

1998
Journal Article

Ford's Model-T: Pricing over the Product Life Cycle

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

The pricing decisions monopolistic firms make over time are determined to a large extent by the complex interplay of two distinct sets of elements: demand- and supply-based considerations. Demand factors include the possibilities of (a) exercising dynamic price... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Information; Demand and Consumers; Monopoly; Product; Sales; Complexity; Auto Industry

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28 Aug 2012
First Look

First Look: August 28

likely attributable to improvements in comparability (i.e., better precision of across-firm information) than to changes in information quality specific to the firm (i.e., core information quality). If IFRS adoption improves financial statement comparability, we View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

October 2009 (Revised July 2012)
Case

Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count

By: Elie Ofek, Jason Riis and Paul Hamilton

Emotiv is getting ready to launch its innovative brain-computer interfacing (BCI) technology. The company has developed a special headset, called EPOC, and highly sophisticated software that can translate a person's emotions, cognitive thoughts, and facial expressions... View Details