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- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- Forthcoming
- Article
The Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets
By: Jeremy C. Stein and Jonathan Wallen
We study supply-and-demand effects in the U.S. Treasury bill market by comparing the returns on T-bills to the administered policy rate on the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. In spite of the arguably more money-like properties of an investment in... View Details
- Forthcoming
- Article
The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking
By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details
- Article
Unregulated Emotional Risks of AI Wellness Apps
By: Julian De Freitas and Glenn Cohen
We propose that AI-driven wellness apps powered by large language models can foster extreme emotional attachments and dependencies akin to human relationships—posing risks like ambiguous loss and dysfunctional dependence—that challenge current regulatory frameworks and... View Details
- Research Summary
US-China Relations
By: Meg Rithmire
Economic interdependence between the US and China was imagined years ago to be a source of security and prosperity for both countries, but is now the site of concerns about risk and national security on both sides. My work has examined how that shift has come about,... View Details
- Forthcoming
- Article
Who Values Democracy?
By: Max Miller
This paper examines the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details
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