Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

26 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 26, 2010

in payout taxes, we show that this prediction holds well. Payout taxes have a large impact on the dynamics of corporate investment and growth. Investment is "locked in" to profitable firms when payout is heavily taxed. Thus,... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

18 Apr 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, April 18, 2018

predict biosimilar entry, price, and penetration, finding significant heterogeneity across countries and products. Effective buyer institutions are associated with increased biosimilar penetration. Our estimates can inform ongoing policy... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

14 Oct 2014
First Look

First Look: October 14

behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money services, which are supplied by three types of claims: deposits, Treasury bills, and asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP). The model provides predictions for... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

06 May 2014
First Look

First Look: May 6

transmitting information from equity to debt holders. This provides a novel argument as to why information contained in stock prices affects the real value of a corporation. It also allows us to make empirical predictions regarding the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

30 Aug 2011
First Look

First Look: August 30

video ads. In a controlled experiment, joy and surprise were assessed through automated facial expression detection for a sample of ads. Concentration of attention was assessed through eye tracking and retention of viewers by recording zapping behavior. This allows... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

09 Feb 2010
First Look

First Look: Feb. 9

function while others are only peripheral. The dynamics of how such "core-periphery" structures evolve and become embedded in a firm's innovation routines has been shown to be a major factor in predicting survival, especially in... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

08 Sep 2009
Research & Ideas

The Height Tax, and Other New Ways to Think about Taxation

projects, two studies are related to how we ought to tax people when they differ in multiple ways. One shows that taxes ought to be less progressive when preferences for leisure time vary widely in society, and I find that international data is consistent with the... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

10 Jun 2002
Research & Ideas

Reinventing the Industrial Giant

Internet system to handle billing and related services. Also in November, GM signed an agreement with EDS to manage its B2B and business-to-employee projects.92 The revenue growth and savings that GM executives predict have until now... View Details

Keywords: by Nitin Nohria, Davis Dyer & Frederick Dalzell; Manufacturing

19 Jan 2021
In Practice

Leadership Advice for Biden: Restore a Sense of Calm

rules of the game? Companies like to know what the rules are and they like stability in those rules. I believe that businesses will welcome a higher level of certainty and predictability that I expect will come with the new... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

13 Nov 2007
Research & Ideas

Six Steps for Reinvigorating America

you can predict the dropout rate. Our high school dropout rate is much too high in the United States—a million children. I remember in the 1980s, the business community was incredibly concerned about K through 12 public education. A... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

06 Feb 2007
First Look

First Look: February 6, 2007

larger class of financial and managerial consultants who sought to refine business decision-making through the introduction of statistical data and scientific analysis. The failure of most forecasting agencies to predict the stock market... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

12 Jul 2011
First Look

First Look: July 12

standard, the FASB predicted managers will, on average, use the fair value estimates to convey private information on future cash flows. The current fair value of goodwill is unverifiable because it depends in part on management's future... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

16 Jun 2009
First Look

First Look: June 16

economic theory of GAAP under the assumption that GAAP's objective is to facilitate efficient capital allocation within an economy. The theory predicts that GAAP, as shaped by the economic forces of demand for and supply of financial... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

2010
Other Unpublished Work

Share Issuance and Factor Timing

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson

We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Price; Performance Evaluation

Citation

SSRN

July 2001
Technical Note

Technical Note on LBO Valuation (A): LBO Structure and the Target IRR Method of Valuation

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Explains the equity cash flow method of valuation as it applies to leveraged buyouts. Also explains: 1) earnings and cash flow forecasts, 2) debt structure and the cash sweep, 3) the cashing out horizon and terminal valuation, and 4) the target IRR method of valuation. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Leveraged Buyouts; Capital Budgeting; Borrowing and Debt; Cash Flow; Equity; Profit; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

Citation

Educators

Purchase

January 1980 (Revised April 1994)
Case

New Balance Athletic Shoes

By: Kim B. Clark

Faced with growth exceeding 100% per year, James Davis, president of New Balance, must decide how to meet the need for additional capacity. Several factors contribute to a climate of extreme uncertainty. Several options are considered, ranging from a second shift to... View Details

Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Information; Growth Management; Organizational Design; Performance Capacity; Risk and Uncertainty; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Republic of Ireland

Citation

Educators

Purchase

September 1995 (Revised April 1999)
Case

Exporting American Culture

By: Joseph L. Badaracco Jr. and Jerry Useem

A large entertainment company, extensively criticized for producing violent, offensive, and anti-social material, is considering whether to sell its material to a semi-illegal operation that is beaming satellite TV into Turkey. The opportunity raises many questions... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Media; Business and Community Relations; Opportunities; Social Issues; Media and Broadcasting Industry

Citation

Educators

Purchase

26 Jun 2007
First Look

First Look: June 26, 2007

replacement, daily index return betas of the additions rose by an average of 0.45, while the index return beta of the deleted stocks fell by an average of 0.63. We predict changes in autocorrelations and cross-serial correlations of... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

09 Aug 2004
Research & Ideas

A Diagnostic for Disruptive Innovation

selected innovation, the proposed business model to commercialize the innovation, and the predicted competitor response. In addition, the business case should highlight the key unknowns that need to be addressed while the selected... View Details

Keywords: by Scott D. Anthony, Mark W. Johnson & Matt Eyring