Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

05 Jan 2011
Op-Ed

Funding Unpredictability Around Stem-Cell Research Inflicts Heavy Cost on Scientific Progress

promising projects. Great people will leave basic research and move to more predictable pastures. And some great young people will decide not to go into research careers at all. The precipitous shift in the legal and regulatory... View Details

Keywords: by William Sahlman; Biotechnology; Health; Pharmaceutical

15 Jul 2008
First Look

First Look: July 15, 2008

when the ratio of government debt to total debt is higher; and ii) by firms with stronger balance sheets. Our theory provides a new perspective on the apparent ability of firms to exploit bond-market return predictability with their... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

19 Dec 2017
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 19, 2017

https://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cbmp/product/618024-PDF-ENG Harvard Business School Case 517-115 Predicting Consumer Tastes with Big Data at Gap CEO Art Peck was eliminating his creative directors for The Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

27 Jun 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, June 27

publicly listed firms ranges from comment letter (CL) reviews of firms’ reporting compliance to pursuing enforcement actions against violators. Prior literature finds that firm political connections (PC) negatively predict enforcement... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

22 Jan 2013
First Look

First Look: Jan. 22

of viable jobs. Equilibria can then feature groups that learn naively from the experience of their members and accept low wage offers from prominent ads while other groups do not find these offers acceptable. A new test statistic is proposed that measures whether, as... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

13 Apr 2010
First Look

First Look: April 13

the largest financial services providers in the U.S., indicate that customer sensitivity to service time varies widely and predictably with observable market characteristics. In turn, we find evidence that local operating managers account... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

04 Sep 2019
Research & Ideas

'I Know Why You Voted for Trump' and Other Motivation Misperceptions

She hopes the results make business leaders think twice about how they size up their customers and rely on previous purchases to predict the products they want. “For instance, imagine you see a person buy a plain black backpack,” she... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

29 Apr 2015
Lessons from the Classroom

Use Personal Experience to Pick Winning Stocks

make it move the way you want," says Malloy. Team members Nami Singhal, Trish Higgins, and Yura Mikhalev (all MBA 2013) used a case that Singhal had studied about Argentina's volatile political system as background information to View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Financial Services

05 Mar 2014
What Do You Think?

When Will the Next Dot.com Bubble Burst?

Internet (mobile) businesses and users (have) already evaluated the benefits (and) analysts' valuations can be more predictable " Shankar N. Mandapaka added: "The earlier dot.com bubble was due to lack of proper valuation... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Publishing; Retail

25 Mar 2014
Research & Ideas

China’s Economic System has Difficult Road Overcoming its Political System

One need only look as far as the bookshelf to see the optimism attached to China's ascension as a world economic and political power. Titles like The Dragon Awakes; The Rise of China; and When China Rules the World predict an inevitable,... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

02 May 2011
Research & Ideas

Casino Payoff: Hands-Off Management Works Best

good customers up to a value of 40 percent of what the customer is expected to spend, the "theoretical win." (Casinos, as you might expect, are experts at predicting what their favored customers will spend during a visit). If a casino... View Details

Keywords: by Dennis Fisher; Entertainment & Recreation

10 Mar 2011
What Do You Think?

To What Degree Does the Job Make the Person?

jobs that changes body chemistry. Presumably, the effect varies with individuals. If this research continues to produce such insights, is it more than a short step to conclude that we can give people tests that predict the degree to which... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

01 Dec 2008
Lessons from the Classroom

How Many U.S. Jobs Are ‘Offshorable’?

predictions of the future. "We wanted students to understand that, as future business leaders, they are likely to face an unprecedented array of options concerning what they can do where," Rivkin says. "The idea that you might offshore... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna

10 Jul 2000
Research & Ideas

The State of the Markets

Predicting that 24-hour trading will become a reality in the next two to three years, Cochrane suggested three ways to deal with it: Home-market adaptation. "If a company is based in, say, Germany, the home exchange will adapt to... View Details

Keywords: by James E. Aisner

11 Dec 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 11, 2018

activity. When our measure is high, safe bonds fall in value and risky assets rally, forecasting a boom in investment. Risk appetite is closely linked to investors’ expectations of future risk and rises following positive macroeconomic outcomes. Periods of elevated... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

19 Nov 2012
Research & Ideas

LEED-ing by Example

tenants to pay the cost of utilities, which reduces a landlord's incentive to invest in LEED, or in other energy efficiency capital expenditures. However, government lessees are attractive to landlords because they come with predictable... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Construction; Real Estate; Energy; Utilities

04 Aug 2009
First Look

First Look: August 4

allocation within an economy. The theory predicts that GAAP's principal focus, as shaped by the demand for and supply of financial information, is on the use of the income statement and balance sheet for performance measurement and... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

29 May 2020
Op-Ed

How Leaders Are Fighting Food Insecurity on Three Continents

financially and operationally ready to support our communities.” United States With jobless rates at Depression-era levels, hunger is a serious issue for many Americans. Feeding America, a nationwide non-profit network of more than 200 foodbanks, View Details

Keywords: by Howard Stevenson and Shirley Spence; Agriculture & Agribusiness

February 2004
Case

Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC

By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur

An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers; Distribution Channels; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

Citation

Educators

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

Citation

Educators

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