Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2021
Working Paper

When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

1977
Working Paper

Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

By: Jerry R. Green

A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details

Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty

October 2019 (Revised March 2022)
Teaching Note

Innovate Safely—CT Scanners and Radiation Risk

By: Hong Luo and Alberto Galasso

Teaching Note for HBS No. 719-486. View Details

May 2019
Teaching Note

Elon Musk: Balancing Purpose and Risk

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai

Teaching Note for HBS No. 817-040. View Details

2007
Article

Reputational Risk

By: Robert G. Eccles Jr. and Scott C. Newquist

Keywords: Reputation; Risk and Uncertainty

22 Jun 2013 - 23 Jun 2013
Conference Presentation

Positive Risk and the Innovation Commons

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

February 2019 (Revised December 2019)
Case

Innovate Safely—CT Scanners and Radiation Risk

By: Hong Luo and Alberto Galasso

17 Dec 2001
Research & Ideas

Risks and Rewards of the Intrapreneur

Your company is forming an intrapreneurial venture, and has asked you to join the start-up team. Is this a career pick-me-up, or occupational suicide? It could be either one, and employees should carefully... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

2002
Working Paper

Risk Aversion and Apparently Persuasive Advertising

By: Bharat Anand and Ron Shachar

December 16, 2009
Guest Column

Risks and Rewards of Celebrity Endorsements

By: Anita Elberse

2017
Working Paper

The Need for Speed: Effects of Uncertainty Reduction in Patenting

By: Mike Horia Teodorescu

Patents are essential in commerce to establish property rights for ideas and to give equal protection to firms that develop new technologies. Young firms especially depend on the protection of intellectual property to bring a product from concept to market. However,... View Details

Keywords: Startups; Natural Language Processing; Machine Learning; Patents; Business Startups; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Green Technology Industry

13 Nov 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Shareholder Activism and Firms’ Voluntary Disclosure of Climate Change Risks

Keywords: by Caroline Flammer, Michael W. Toffel, and Kala Viswanathan

June 1999 (Revised May 2017)
Teaching Note

Guidant Corporation: Shaping Culture Through Systems

By: Robert Simons and Antonio Dávila

Teaching Note for (9-198-076). View Details

Keywords: Strategy And Execution; Management Control Systems; Risk And Uncertainty; Service Industry; Financial Services Industry

30 Nov 2018
Conference Presentation

Italian Banks and the Italy Risk

By: Dante Roscini

2016
Working Paper

The Effect of Shareholder Litigation Risk on the Information Environment: The Case of Cross-Listed Firms

By: Anywhere Sikochi

I document the causal link between shareholder litigation risk and cross-listed firms’ information environment by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in the form of a reduction in litigation risk resulting from the 2010 Supreme Court ruling in Morrison v. National... View Details

Keywords: Cross-listing; Information Environment; Shareholder Litigation Risk; D＆O Insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; Lawsuits and Litigation; Business and Shareholder Relations

July 1975
Article

An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Theory; Growth and Development; Risk and Uncertainty

Find at Harvard

2007
Working Paper

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Central Banking; Risk Management

July 1997 (Revised September 1997)
Case

USAA: Catastrophe Risk Financing

By: Kenneth A. Froot and Mark Seasholes

Describes the first major risk financing using catastrophe bonds. Provides a basis for discussing the securitization of insurance risks. View Details

Keywords: Financial Management; Insurance; Capital Markets; Natural Disasters; Risk Management; Bonds; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; United States

2008
Working Paper

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Central Banking; Risk Management

2007
Other Unpublished Work

A Private Sector without Prerequisites: Ordered Uncertainty in Vietnam and China

By: Regina M. Abrami

Keywords: Private Sector; Developing Countries and Economies; Risk and Uncertainty; China

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